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Self Evaluation “Outlook 2016”

December 15, 2016

@Asad Rizvi
To keep a check of my own work (Technical Analysis/Economic Reports), since last year (2015) I have started doing Self Evaluation to examine my performance.

I am aware that self- assessment analysis is a very difficult choice when you have to do the process of assessing yourself. The sole purpose of this exercise is to improve the accuracy of analysis technique.

In 2016, I have published wide range of Technical Analysis/Economic Reports covering 42- Topics on Global & Domestic Economy that includes analysis on Gulf Currencies, Oil, SBP Policy Rate, US Bond Holdings, Pakistan’s Sovereign Bond, “Open Question on Panama Paper”, GCC Economies, IMF and Structural Economic Reform, National Budget, BREXIT, Predicted Donald Trump’s win, Suggesting Pakistan to fight Economic War against India, View on Gold & Currencies, IMF’s Christine Lagarde Visit to Pakistan and Indian Demonetization of India’s 500 & 1,000 Rupee Notes.

Out of total 27 calls in my “Outlook 2016”, I have made 24 correct calls and 3 of them were wrong, which in terms of accuracy is 89 pct.This does not include my prediction of BREXIT & DONALD TRUMPS’s victory.
Last year I made 16 Major calls, out of which only 1-call was incorrect, which was 93 pct correct calls.

Please check blog for references of past write-ups.

https://asadcmka.wordpress.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/asad-rizvi-114a683?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile

 

Projected Outlook      Close as of December 

Global 2016 

US Interest Rate  = 0.75-1 pct       0.75 pct

US 10-Year Bond 2.70 %                2.51 pct

OIL @ $ 25-27                                 Target Met- On Feb 11 Tested Lows of $ 26.11

EURO @ 1.0405                            On Dec 05 Euro Tested lows of 1.0505

GBP @ 1.4040, On July 10           Target Met- On October 07 GBP tested 1.20

Target Revised to 1.20

Yuan 6.99                                        6.92 Target Met.

Indian Rupee 68.40                        Target Met- All time low of 68.86 on Nov 24

GOLD @ $ 1062                              Failed to test $ 980. Target was Revised Upward to test $ 1340-50, which it did hitting $ 1340 on July 31 2016.

JPY Original Target 126, on         On Sept 26, JPY almost tested 100 per USD Break of $ 114, Target Revised down to around and was met $ 100.

AUD @ 0.6710                                 AUD 0.7450 (Missed Target by Miles)

Projected Outlook    Close as of December

Pakistan 2016

GDP GROWTH RATE =                           CPEC activity gave boost hitting 4.5 pct

RS/USD @ 104.84 =                     in the Inter-Bank Market FALIED to meet Target

REMITTANCES =    to comfortable surpass $ 19 Billion by end December meeting Target. (Jan-June Rs 9,969Billion) (July-Nov Rs 7.800 Billion)

INFLATION =          Target of below 3 pct by end of June 2016 attained is 2.86%

(July – November 2016 is 3.92 % ) Projected Target is below 4.50 pct.

SBP DR/TARGET RATE =        Projected Slash by around150 bp. Discount Rate is slashed by 325 basis point to 6.25 pct and SBP Policy (Target) Rate is 5.75 pct.

PIB YIELDS =                          On Sept 21, PIB Yields on 3,5 & 10 years tested 6.20%, 6.70% & 7.80 % respectively. Target met.

PIB Coupon =                        3 yr, 5 yr & 10 yr was slashed by 175 bp, 150 bp & 100 bp respectively on April 01, 2016. Target Met.

Budget Deficit =              Govt FY Target of 4.3 Pct will be missed and was missed.

DEFICIT FINANCING =                         Rs1.4 Trillion. Target Met.

OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS =         will surpass Rs 1.5 Trillion and it did by large margin hitting all time High Rs 2.032 Trillion on 14 July.

ADVANCE/DEPOSIT RATE =              To fall below 50% – Target Met.

CIRCULAR DEBT = will be close to Rs 300 Billion. Target Attained.

Revenue Collection =                                              Short Fall Projected

Commodity =                   (Wheat, Sugar & Rice) Glut to stay in 2016. Target Met.

Boon for Wheat & Sugar Producers =                Enjoy Subsidy @ Tax Payers Cost.

 

(Disclaimer applies in my post, which means that the perspective is my personal view. I have made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is strictly for information and not intended for Trade or Business Transaction). 

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2 Comments
  1. Scott permalink

    Hi Asad – do you have a platform for daily or weekly analysis?

  2. No Scott, I do it at my convenience due to my daily office engagements. Regards

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