Skip to content

Trump poses no Threat ! A Perspective

September 25, 2016

By
Asad Rizvi

US election is due in next 44 days (Nov 08), several polls suggest Clinton is leading by tiny margin. The world is still unsure which candidate is a better choice. In a survey last month National Association for Business Economics, large majority of its 414 of its members believe that Clinton is a better candidate.

Clinton as Senator is a known commodity. She has the governing experience and surely possesses diplomatic skills. However, commentators are of view that she is also known to hold grudges.

If Donald Trump is elected, he would be the 1st leader in last 5-Decades not to have attended any elected office previously.

Foreign Businessman/investors are sacred of him and some may even hate his business proposition, as he wants to impose massive tariffs on its US trading partners. But, his slogan is “Make America Great Again”, means he wants to protect America’s National interest.

What bothers most about Trump is his stance, his aggression, his weak moral authority to lead the world from front. He is certainly reckless when he speaks.
His idea of building a wall around USA and ban and deport Mexican did not find all around support.

His language against Muslims is a bit too harsh and worrisome that clashes with the religious tolerance. He wants to impose ban on Muslims from entering America probably in a hope to minimize risk/threat of terrorism, which is understandable, simultaneously it is a risky proposition if guidelines are breached and missed used.

But it is encouraging to note his positive attitude towards relations between Palestine and Israel. He said his priority would be to bring peace.

While, some of his ideology may be very confusing for the Americans and its Western Allies as he does not support Iraq War. His idea of maintaining good relationship with Putin is disliked, which I believe can help in easing global tension. It all puts question mark on his approach towards Foreign Policy.

But to me what is most worrying is his extremely aggressive statement that may have even worried US Central Bank (FED). He wants to print money to settle National debt ( $ 19.525 Trillion)

However, past trend suggest Business Community flock in huge numbers to support Republican Candidates because of its support for deregulation policy and low tax, though Chamber in New York showed some concern about Trump’s policy.

Further, Trump’s business acumen could be of great help to the US economy because of his understanding skills of trade and finance that should help the country and community.

Prospect of Trump becoming a President

In coming US Elections, there is a visible ideological divide that may lead to low turnout. In such a situation his hard line approach should definitively give edge to Trump over Clinton, as his passionate and ardent supporters will not stay at home, while voters having extreme views will also help in adding the count. This may give tilt towards Republican in overall voting count, which will increase his victory chances over former first lady. Similarly, Clinton may bag few votes based on same argument.

Though circumstances are different in USA, but let’s take couple of examples. Prior to 2012 French Elections, Hollande promised to transform Europe by fighting back Germany’s austerity plan to overcome European crisis by renegotiating Europe’s Fiscal issues.

Cameron, Merkel and few others openly supported Sarkozy against Socialist Party Presidential candidate, as he was considered threat to “Euro Zone”. Today, despite Europe is still in disarray. Hollande is in excellent terms with Germany.

Similarly in January 2015 Greece’s Tsipras won election because of his harsh stance towards lenders policy and carried Anti-Austerity slogan to win election. Few months later, he succumbed to external pressure and chose to compromise by agreeing to continue with the austerity package in return for Debt relief concession.

I do not see major threat of drastic changes in US Foreign/Overall Policy if Trump gets elected. Russians may feel comfortable, but gates for friendship will be not opened due to quite a few barriers.

He may continue for some time with his disturbing language to please his voters. But again we cannot ignore the fact that the secret behind his rising popularity graph is his hard line approach that has pushed him to the highest level.

He is a shrewd businessman and has several business interests in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia some yet to mature.

Trump Win from Pakistani Perspective

In my view, I see “No Harm” if Trump gets elected. About us Trump whispered that “Pakistan is Semi Stable” but again he recognized that the two-countries have good relationship, which I take positively.

I may be the odd man here, but my man is Trump over Hillary Clinton because National interest is dearer to me. Knowingly that India feels more comfortable with Clinton, how can I support Hillary.

For over a decade, I have been closely watching Hillary. While Pakistan was badly engaged in Afghan war, Hillary after becoming Senator in 1995 visited India frequently paving way to bring his elected husband and USA closer to India after their Millennium YK2 visit.  She helped in engaging USA – India nuclear deal. It is also said that her closest Foreign Policy aids are helping India.

While, Trump has some reservations over Hillary’s close connection with India that suits Pakistan

Whereas, in comparison to Pakistan’s past and current all out support in various areas of interest, we feel despite larger contribution at the cost of our economy, we are left standard, probably because there is a clear shift in priorities.

The change in the dynamics of Regional and Geo Politics is clearly visible.  Hence there no harm if Pakistan decides to choose its own course and prefer to opt for better available option.

(Disclaimer applies in my post, which means that the perspective is my personal view. I have made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is strictly for information and not intended for Trade or Business Transaction). 

Advertisements
One Comment

Trackbacks & Pingbacks

  1. I am glad my Trump Prediction is Correct | asadcmka

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: