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Bingo ! Bingo ! Bingo ! All Targets Hit..June 24

June 24, 2016

Bingo ! Bingo ! Bingo ! All Targets Hit……..

Start Booking your profit.

Next support levels….

GBP @ 1.3240 = 1.2540 if 1.278 surrenders
JPY @ 101.60 = Needs to break 99.40 for 97.20 & may bounce back. Another sharp move coming if 102.50-80 zones hold.
EURO @ 1.1023 = As long as 1.1180 holds break of 1.0880 will encourage for 1.0770
GOLD @ $ 1330 = Unless move beyond $ 1380 for $ 1450, risk for sharp drop

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/currencies-gold-outlook-may-01-asad-rizvi?trk=hp-feed-article-title-publish

https://asadcmka.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/brexit-or-no-brexit-fate-of-currencies-gold/

As we get closer to June 23 no one can tell about BrExit Yes or No. Neither Politicians nor Predictor can provide straight answers as both will talk in favor of their own interest.

UK market is heading for uncertain period with many risks attached. Political and Foreign Policy Risk factor adds to country’s National Security Risk.

It will make Rest of Europe uncomfortable if UK decided to exit. Ireland could be clobbered as UK is its largest trading partner. Scotland too will melt because of its dependency and close trading relationship with UK.

Europe may be faced with contagion effect because exit will increase risk of Referendum Trend in EU Countries that could weaken Euro-zone. And more likely, BrExit will certainly add to the woes of respective governments of Germany and France in 2017 election.

The tug of war is between UK’s Business Community and those that believe that the pride of British people is at stake, as they consider themselves more Englishmen than European.

Business Community believes that EU membership helps in reducing trade barriers, as it allows Free Trade. It also allows free movement of its Capital and Labor.

While, exit supporters strongly believe that by joining of European Union they are not independent in making decisions as they will have o abide the EU Rules and Regulations.

The campaign led by David Cameroon has strong support from UK’s Business community backed by US President Obama. Whereas London’s former Mayor Boris Johnson leading BrExit Campaign is supported by the UK’s Anti-Immigration Independence Party.

UK’s “The Sun” reported that even Queen Elizabeth II backs BrExit, which was quickly denied by Buckingham Place.

However, there are many risks and factors attached to this debate, as disagreement is on immigration policy. They think probably allocation of agriculture quotas will put its farmers in disadvantageous position. Joining the Union of 5-Other Nation that includes Turkey risking control borders. Many Britain’s hates the idea of being controlled and regulated by the European bureaucrats.

If Britain decides to exit then Europe cannot escape from disaster, as other could soon follow and Scottish National Party may take the lead and could ask for another referendum on Union with UK that could increase risk of Scottish Independence. Similarly, North & Southern Ireland problems could pop up specially issues relating to trade.

 

GBP 1.4255 = Market would continue to wobble and witness choppy trading sessions until June 23. Euro too against US Dollar will come under pressure, but may regain some strength against Pond Sterling.

Swiss Franc will enjoy strength in crosses against both the currencies. Japanese Yen will the other currency to enjoy European unrest. Gold will find buyers on dip that could comfortable surpass $ 1300 and may get close to $ 1350 levels.

Pound, will continue to find regular sellers.

If you have followed my May 01, 2016 note and took Profit or Sold Sterling, as the currency was well capped below 1.4820, I would still recommend to wait to buy, as more losses is expected, as I am still not sure that how Bank of England will provide Cable the safety net, though there is one more BOE meeting due a week before the Vote. Banks are already told to prepare their contingency plan, which means possibly more trouble for the British currency.

However, I would suggest taking early profit or closing instead of opting for a bigger gamble. As “Yes” Vote will reverse the trend. Next level to watch is beak of 1.4140 and 1.3740 or 1.3220. While 1.4850 will be the key level to watch on the upside.

https://asadcmka.wordpress.com/2016/05/01/currencies-gold-outlook-may-01/

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/currencies-gold-outlook-may-01-asad-rizvi?trk=hp-feed-article-title-publish

 

Currencies & Gold Outlook – May 01

Last week’s ECB & BOJ announcement confirms that they are done with easing policy for the time being. Lower expectation of ECB easing and weak inflation in Eurozone region has help helped Yield to make small gain that has supported EURO. Fed’s somewhat Dovish outlook further dampened USD’s upward momentum. However, since performance of Major economies is still below par, hence unless it makes reversal ongoing current Euro rally is likely to make some more gain before it exhaust. Market will wait to take direction from the release of US economic data.

While, surge in Pound Sterling is caused by comparatively better economic condition in UK and customer demand opting for a hedge, as BrExit referendum is due on June 23. However, this upward rally could soon halt. Market should be prepared for excessive choppy and volatile condition as we get closer to polls date.  Friday’s US non-farm payroll and unemployment data could be the game changer.

EURO @ 1.1440 = Support @ 1.1240 is the key, which should hold if 1.1320 surrenders. Howver needs to clear 1.1520 for test of 1.1590-20 zones.

GBP @ 1.4608 = Bullish rally in Cable is intact, but the run is probably in its last phase before it exhaust. In Medium Term top is around 1.48-50 zones, as crash could soon occur. Mover below 1.4220 will encourage for 1.3770. However, during the week only break of 1.4740 will encourage for 1.4820. Preferred strategy would be to pick the top for a test of 1.4340-80 zones.

JPY @ 106.80 = The expected move did occur, as per earlier recommendation made calling for for a quick 5-7 big figure drop. However, from here see Yen finding temporary support around 104.50-80 zones for a retest of 108.20 levels. In Medium Term strong support is at 110.50. Unless 112.50-80 zones surrenders, there is a risk of further Yen gains to test 100-102

GOLD @ $ 1292.40 = is likely to find buying interest around $ 1260-65 zones, as support is around 1235-40, which should hold. But I strongly recommend taking profit around $ 1320-50 zones and prefer to wait to pick top to sell as strong resistance is around $ 1380.

(Disclaimer applies in my post, which means that the perspective is my personal view. I have made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article is strictly for information and not intended for Trade or Business Transaction)

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