Skip to content

Self Evaluation of Outlook 2015

December 18, 2015

Recently I thought of doing self-evaluation of Outlook 2015 to check my own performance.

The best moment of my January 03, 2015 forecast was about two days ago when FED announced hike in US interest rates by 25 basis point. In my January call I predicted that FED will hike rate that will happen in the latter half of 2015 and I never withdrew from my earlier call though economist, analyst and theorist kept on changing their views. Let’s assess my overall performance.

I am working on my Outlook 2016 and will release shortly.

Projected  (Outlook 2015)                                   Target Achieved

Global

-US Rate cut Later part of 2nd half                 – Hiked on Dec 16, 2015

-GOLD $ 1070 = Break of $ 1110-20                – Achieved $ 1080

open gates for $ 1080

-EURO@ 1.21 = Target 1.1250. Revised          – 1.0495 was hit  03/16/15
Down to 1.05 on March 5

-GBP @ 1.5525 = Target 1.4650.                     – 1.4630 was hit on 04/05/15

-JPY @ 119.60 = Target 124.80                       – 125.60 May 31, 2105

-Oil $ WTI 35 – Brent $ 38                               – Target met on Dec 14

 

(Pakistan)

-Growth to Surpass 4 pct                                 – 4.24 pct

-PKR @ 100.48 = Rupee will                            – 104.75-80 or 4.3 pct.
Depreciate by 4-7 pct

-Inflation   7 pct                                                – 4.53 pct Off Target

-Call for Rate & Coupon Cut by 4 %               – Rate cut 3 %, Coupon 2.25%
& 3 pct

-Revenue shortfall by Rs 75-80 Billon          -Collection Revised Thrice

-Debt to get close to Rs 20 Trillion                – Perfect

-Additional Tax on Banks                                 – 4 pct Applied

-Fiscal Deficit around 5 pct                              – 4.9 pct

-Banking System will remain clogged           -Advance/Deposit Ratio 50%
Due to investments in Govt Securities

-2000-3000 Megawatts increase in               – Attained
Power due to lower oil prices

 

Advertisements
Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: