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Fx & Gold – Feb 5

February 5, 2014
As per expectation market bounced back yesterday in US session after torrid 2-days for the global financial market. Global financial market is still choppy and directionless and seems to be unsure of its behavior and its next direction.
The US economic indicators released so far has been weak, but market is well aware that extremely cold condition is responsible for all the current economic mess. I think today’s release of ADP employment data that gives feeler about growth and consumer spending will be an important gauge to determine coming trend. Similarly there are quite a few data due to be released from USA that should provide better guideline.
Meanwhile, Euro could not benefit from healthier release of European numbers as market will probably wait for more clues, tomorrow is an important day for Euro-zone as its Central Bank is expected provide some clues about euro region economy, but today’s release of manufacturing related economic data may give some spake to the market. Similarly UK PMI will be watched keenly and I am expecting small buying interest before the release of data, so buying on dip will be seen,.
While, recently gold was often seen as safe heaven buying rather than anything else as all odds are against the metal. Interestingly with little patience gold gives good opportunity to sell as it is quick to fall, seller are hesitant to hold gold and run for profit taking on its rise.
GMT 3.20 – GOLD @ $ 1254.50 = May hold around $ 1250-52 unless $ 1245 surrender, as minor risk for a test of $ 1262-65 zones, break of $ 1269 would risk for a test of $ 1278-80. Similarly fall below support levels risks for $ 1235.

GMT 3:37 – EURO @ 1.3515 = Today if 1.3540 breaks, I will not be surprised to see a move towards 1.3575-80 zones, as 13460-70 is proving tough to crack. However up move should hold, unless 1.3630 break for anther fall. Earlier break of support levels will encourage for a test of 1.3420 before correcting.
GMT 3:53 – GBP @ 1.6325 = Prior to PMI data release Pound is a buy on dips around 1.6270-80 zones, but needs to break 1.6340 for a test of 1.6375-80 levels. On the downside, risk for fall will increase once 1.6220-30 levels surrender.
GMT 3:57 – JPY @ 101.49 = JPY needs to push below 101.80-90 levels for more losses or else another test of 100.85 will be a possibility.
GMT 4:00 – AUD @ 0.8883 = Aussie has support around 0.882030 zones that should hold for another upside test of 0.8930-50 zones. Failure to break would risk for another dip.

Dec 11 -Gold 2014 Target  Break of $ 1000 for $ 800.

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