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Emerging Market Stable, But Still A Threat – Jan 31

January 31, 2014

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

 

 3:02 PM  OK pals, end of an excellent month.|
Hope you all enjoyed trading in January.
Cheers until next week…….
3:02 PM  What a great start of the year and end of of the month.
Thank you sir
Great weekend everyone
1:50 PM  Euro @ 1.3499 = preferred entry level 1.3470-80 with stops 1.3440………
1:44 PM
I would prefer selling above $ 1255……..Next $ 1265 is crucial.
But should dip below $1248 for more losses….
1:44 PM  sir shall go short gold at 1253??
1:43 PM   sell gold at cmp
1:41 PM   EURO @ 1.3507 = Book your profit around 1.3502-07………..
12:12 PM   Not now, I have made it clear in my morning post that beware of NYK market thay will make upside try..Now $ 1248-50 is the level to watch if hold could dip to teat $ 1242-45 zones or $ 1255 could be tested………….
12:09 PM  AUD @ 0.8710 = Target met, Profit should be taken around 0.8705-10
12:08 PM   sir any view abt gold now??
10:14 AM   sir booked profit at 1.6450.. thanks..
9:38 AM  GBP @ 1.6447 = pd, 1.6430-40 is the physiological level that m=needs to crack for 1.6410. Now since today is the last day and you had a good month profit taking is a better strategy…………
9:21 AM   sir gbp shorted at 1.6485 where to book profit?
4:36 AM   Certainly Sir,   I just cut both of them off in little profits.
Thanks
 4:36 A   Certainly Sir,  I just cut both of them off in little profits.  Thanks
4:09 AM  Morning Sir,
GOLD: I am holding my buying positions (@1243 & @1239) from yesterday with a SL @ 1237.2. Will cut them off as soon as it makes an attempt little upside.
Thanks

 

Daily Outlook 

It was somewhat stable market condition seen in the financial seen in the market after FED policy announcement. Emerging market did not behave erratically and is taking a breather, but risk factor cannot be ignored because of huge debt, Turkey has a large borrowing, which is due to mature this year and with sizable current account deficit, curtailing spending will not be enough measure to balance out the deficit and meet its commitment. Other emerging countries are also taking a breather. Therefore threat of contagion effect is still looming.
Meanwhile, US economy grew by above 3 pct in Q4, which is a healthy sign, people are consuming more, which means they are spending, though jobless claims was a bit higher than expectation. Overall its a better mix of US data and today too US economic data could could reflect better picture of the economy.
While, as UK economy continues to prosper, as mortgage approval rose to 6-year high, which depicts confidence in the UK housing market. But German unemployment and inflation gave blow to its ongoing momentum, risking deflationary pressure in Europe. It increases the risk for more accommodation in Euro-zone region and slowdown may not refrain ECB to act earlier than expectation, as liquidity condition remains tight in the Euro-zone region. Hence market will focus on next week’s ECB meeting.

GMT 3:26 – GOLD @ $ 1242.50 = Gold could make small upside attempt towards $ 1244-46 before exhausting in Asia, but needs to fall below $ 1234-36 for $ 1230. However, risk for sharp upside try in US session could be a possibility in an attempt to avoid low monthly closing. But downside move is intact. Any upside violation could see rally extending towards $ 1254.

GMT 3:34 – EURO @ 1.3554 = Euro needs to push above 1.3575-85 convincingly for 1.3620, failure to move up would risk for a test of 1.3505, break will extend fall towards 1.3480 zones, but if dips further, support 1.3450 should hold for minor upside correction.
GMT 3:41 – GBP @ 1.6487 = Pound has strong resistance around 1.6510-20 and needs to clear for a test of 1.6550-60 zones, which looks tough. However, on fall strong support is around 1.6410-20 levels, which needs to break for 1.6370-80. There is risk that buying interest will emerge on dip.
GMT 3:46 – AUD @ 0.8795 = The strength of Aussie is a bit surprising, but trend is your friend. I still see risk for drop and strong resistance around 0.8830-50 should hold, a a move below 0.8740 will extend fall towards 0.8710.   
GMT 3:50 – JPY @ 102.60 = As long as 103.50 and 103.90 is capped, JPY could make more gains. Break of 101.10-30 levels may  confirm more gains for the Japaneses currency.

Dec 11 -Gold 2014 Target  Break of $ 1000 for $ 800.

Twitter @asadcmka………

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More Later…………………..

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