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Markets Await FED Decision – Jan 28

January 28, 2014
Market focus has now shifted to FED’s meeting on its monetary policy stance that begins tomorrow. Data this week may not impact Fed’s decision, as market did not pay much heed to fall in yesterday’s New Home sales  that may have been caused by bad weather. Neither today’s release of Durable Goods or Consumer Confidence numbers will have greater impact on the market. We could see strong Durable numbers with possibly weak consumer tone.
Meanwhile, there has been some halt in slide in the emerging markets due to measures taken by the respective countries. However, the economies are still faced with risk fearing tightening measures may lead to surge in interest rates and bond yields that may have adverse impact on the deficit economies. This cause of uncertainty will dominate until Fed announcement.
Meanwhile, Pound continues its upside journey on believe that today’s release of 4th quarter GDP number will exceed expectations of 0.7 pct QoQ despite weak PMI data release earlier because retail sector has been doing good. Prior to data release Pound Sterling will find buyers on dip.
GOLD @ $ 1257.50 = There is minor risk that gold may hold $ 1253-55 levels for a move towards $ 1260, break risk for a test of $ 1263-65 zones. Or else $ 1248-50.

GMT 3:19 – EURO @ 1.3675 = Expecting a very similar move as of yesterday and is likely to hold below 1.3750. However, Euro needs to push below 1.3620 for 1.3580 or else, range trading will continue.
GMT 3:28 –  JPY @ 102.70 = May trade in 102.30 – 103.20 band. Unless break 103.80 convincingly risk is for more JPY gains.
GMT 3:31 – AUD @ 0.8785 = Aussie got some life after Chinese bank funding. This rally should exhaust around 0.8820 levels unless makes a clear break of 0.8880, which dos not look a possibility.
GMT 3:33 GBP @ 1.6605 = It seems selling Pound is a sin as the currency easily finds buyers on dip. However, if fails to break 1.6630-35 zones for 1.6660 before data, Pound could dip to test 1.6570-80. Next two levels to watch is 1.6520  and 1.6690.

Dec 11 -Gold 2014 Target  Break of $ 1000 for $ 800.

Twitter @asadcmka………

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