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US Bias on Upside – Gold to Gain Before Easing – Jan 17

January 17, 2014

US Dollar once again traded in a narrow trading band against Euro. It lost its sheen versus JPY, as rising US bond yield and weak Nikkei support strong Yen. Cable is finding tough to climb as UK economy has shown some signs of fatigue and today’s weak Retail sales could further dampen the sentiment. Aussie took another round of beating, as there is a risk of rise in unemployment that that could fore RBA for another rate cut. While today’s economic data will provide some more hint about US economy’s next direction.
The reason for USD consolidation in NYK could be due to poor bank result announcement by the US banks hitting stocks that gave strength to US bond and Japanese Yen some more breathing space. Market still looks unsure after last week’s weak Non Farm Payroll data and trying to make adjustment. Despite some uncertainty, there is no confusion about US economy that has so far shown clear signs of growth.

GMT 3:06 – GOLD @ $ 1243.50 = In Asia gold should hold around $ 1240 levels for a move towards $ 1246-48 zones, which good for quick trade and profit should be taken, before falling to test $ 1240-42 zones, but needs to break for $ 1235. Upside violation risks tests of $ 1253-55 zones.

GMT 3:15 – EURO @ 1.3617 = We are faced with similar situation as of yesterday. Euro may find top around 1.3530-50 zones and is required to surpass for .670-80 zones. However, a fall below 1.3570-75 is required to test crucial 1.3540-50 zones. Bias is still on the downside.
GMT 3:20 – GBP @ 1.6337 =  Watch support 1.6310 only break risks for test of 1.6270-80. On the up barrier is at 1.6260, then 1.6390 and lastly 1.6425. But selling pressure should dominate on the rise.
GMT 3:23 – JPY @ 104.30 = I am expecting JPY to hold around 104.40-60 levels for 104.05. Break will encourage for test of 103.80-90 levels. Or else 104.85.
GMT 3:27 – AUD @ 0.8806 = Aussie has weak tone, but should remain locked in 0.8770 and 0.8830 range. Top and bottom can be picked with 30-35 pip Stop Loss.

Dec 11 -Gold 2014 Target  Break of $ 1000 for $ 800.

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