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FED Minutes & Strong US Data To Demand for Quick Unwinding – Jan 8

January 8, 2014

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

 

 6:53 AM    View on Gold & Currencies is unchanged………………..
8:21 AM   GBP @ 1.6417 = No change in view may struggle to move beyond 1.6430-40 and hence could dip o test 1.6380-90 zones……..
8:38 AM   GOLD @ $ 1223.80 = Ok, as gold could not make an impact in Asia, it is loosing its gloss as Europe enters. However, I do not see break of $ 1217-18 now and would prefer buying around $ 1220-22 level. Do apply Stop Loss.
9:05 AM   GBP @ 1.6425 = Prefer selling Pound around 1.6435. Stops loss 1.6455
 9:43 AM   GOLD @ $ 1226 =Suggest profit taking around $ 1226-8………..
9:44 AM  GOLD @ $ 1227 = Sell around $ 1227-29, as another dip possible. Stop Loss $ 1232……..
10:46 AM  EURO @ 1.3587 = Shorts should book profit around 1.3582-87 levels and go long Euro on dip around 1.3570 with Stop Loss 1.3545.
10:49 AM  JPY @ 104.69 = Book your profit around 104.62-69…cheers
1:10 PM
Sir, kindly advice what action need to be taken upon release of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change while trading Gold?
1:19 PM   GOLD @ $ 1225 = Square gold position before data around 4 1223-25……..
1:23 PM   sir what about gold and gbp after data!!
 1:31 PM   Sell Gold
1:34 PM  GOLD @ $ 1225 = I am expecting $ 1232 to hold for break of $ 1218.pick top o sell, do apply stops if hit………….
1:39 PM  and sir what abt euro!!
 1:42 PM  When there is change in I make a post. Do not bombard with unnecessary queries to confuse others.
If you have purchased around 1.3570, place your buying levels as Stop if dip or wait for my post………………….
2:04 PM  EURO @ 1.3592 = Book your profit around 1.3592-98……………
2:12 PM  GBP @ 1.6450 = Sell GBP around 1.6450-60. Stops 1.6490………..
2:18 PM  EURO @ 1.3605 = Euro hovering around Crucial level 1.3605-10 may hold to test another lows unless break above 1.3635………
2:24 PM  Euro @ 1.3606 = You can still sell around 1.3606-10. Stop Loss 1.3622…………
2:32 PM  AUD @ 0.8940 = View unchanged……
2:58 PM
A Good Day again sir
100 % win
Closed all of the day trades
Thank You
 3:00 PM
Sir,
Today was my first day ever to follow your posts (I could not initiate any trades yesterday due to my late entry) and I enjoyed the entire day in trading Gold today. Despite of narrow profits due to my very low account size it was a day full of enthusiasm. After a long time I would be closing my day with a smile on my face and will enjoy the remaining part of the evening with my 3-year old son.
Thank you Sir.
 3:01 PM Sir, You are a blessing for newbies like me. Hats off Sir, Hats off.
3:01 PM  many thanks, you high success rate is due to confidence in post, it is also because you do not chase every headline news and stick to a plan.
Thanks for showing confidence……….
3:04 PM  Remember discipline is the key if you are following me. Apply stops when hit. You will not regret. There is always a next day……..Cheers to you
3:04 PM   Ok pals pals, before I leave, suggest closing all positions.
Cheers until tomorrow………..
3:06 PM
Thank you Sir.
I will keep that in mind and will follow your guidelines.

 

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DAILY COMMENTARY

The US trade data that fell by 13 pct in November to USD 34.3 billion has once again reiterated confidence that the economy is in the right direction. It will surely help to revise 4th quarter GDP upward and further endorsing FED’s tapering plan. Such positive data will give broader space to FED to consider unwinding at a faster pace. Though decision on FED tapering should be split, as every FED members may not be in agreement, but its the majority that rules and this why tapering took place.
Today’s ADP Employment Change data could be the leading indicator. Better than expected release of numbers will encourage Hawkish sentiment. However, poor data unless too bad may not have larger impact, as market would wait for the release of Fed minutes that will provide a clearer view.
Lot of people carry same view and are talking of FED new Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s past role, as and ardent Dove ignoring/forgetting that the decision on tapering was taken in her presence. She has to lead from front and suppress her wishes if any and enter the real world, as she is answerable/responsible on all monetary matters and will have to behave and act accordingly. Then I would also like to add that the new FED Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer carry’s different ideas and does not believe that forward guidance is beneficial for the economy and hence, may demand unwinding at a faster pace. Bottom line is that QE will be more data dependent.
On the other side of the continent, softer release of European inflation data was not good news for ECB that has a desire for faster growth. It also increases the risk that though European Central Bank will not amend its rates tomorrow, but Mario Draghi will have to adopt softer or Dovish tone and speak of possibility of rate cut fearing deflation.
GMT 3:37 – JPY 104.91 = Only break of 105.10-20 could threaten for more JPY losses. Should hold 104.60-70 zones or else 104.40.

Dec 11 -Gold 2014 Target  Break of $ 1000 for $ 800.

Twitter @asadcmka………

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More Later…………………..

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