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ECB & BOE To Hold Rates – NFP To Provide Trend – Jan 06-10

January 5, 2014

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

4:56 AM  Hello Sir,  Any Trade worth entering in GOLD?  Thanks
5:30 AM  HOLD @ $ 1240= Book your profit around $ 1238- 40 and pick bottom to go long with Stop Loss $ 1232………..Cheers
5:34 AM  GBP @ 1.6360 = Book your profit around 1.6350-60 and go long around lows with Stop Loss 1.6310 for 1.6390-00………
5:37 AM  JPY @ 104.30 = If JPy hold 105.55 could dip to teat and break 104.05 for 103.85-90.If long Yen squaring preferred ……
 5:42 AM  AUD @ 0.8951 = Suspect that 0.8980 may hold & Aussie could dip to test 0.8885 on break of 0.8905…
 7:55 AM  GBP @1.6350 = Though testing lows. Do not go long now…………..
8:14 AM   EURO @ 1.3585 = It seems Euro will hold 1.3540-50 for a test of 1.3625……
8:43 AM   Buy gold around $ 1236-38. Stops $ 1232
 8:46 AM   aus should hold short ?
hold short AUD, needs to break 0.8930-35 for 0.8905. Keep a close watch on 0.8980-90..Cheers
9:03 AM  GOLD @$ 1236.50 = good time to buy gold……..
9:28 AM  GBP to test 1.6310……should hold 1.6380……..
11:05 AM  sir gbp view same!!
 11:08 AM   Well you have watch 1.6380-90 levels, though could be around top…….
 11:40 AM   sir gold view same!!
12:54 PM   GOLD @ $ 1236.60 = A word on Gold. Since is stuck in a narrow band, it needs to move beyond $ 1238-39 failing would risk for a test of $ 1231-33 zones. i would prefer squaring now and wait for market to find direction in US market.
 1:33 PM  GOLD @ $ 1241.50 = Sell around $ 1241.50 -1243. Stops $ 1248………….
2:33 PM  EURO @ 1.3618 = book your profit around 1.3618-25…………cheers
2:53 PM  AUD @ 0.8944 = Either square now or cut you AUD position at your buying level……but do square around 0.8925-30………….
2:54 PM  sir what abt gbp!!
 3:00 PM  Since GBP broke 1.6380-90 now should test 1.6425-35 zones………..
 3:07 PM  GOLD @ $ 1247 = There is risk for a test of $ 1248-50 zones. However, it is preferable to square on any dip around $ 1242-44 levels prior to test days new highs.
3:09 PM  Ok pals, cheers until tomorrow…………..
3:17 PM
Hi sir,
First trade after vacations
lol… Great one sir Great one
Sold at 1243 and 1247
closed at 1226
thanks
3:19 PM
Cheers …………….as always
This is because you believe in my logic/commentary instead of trading on tics………
Thanks
Indeed Sir
It was a Phenomenal Gold Short
Closed @ 1225
Thanks & Big Cheers to that….
3:28 PM
I am happy for you. Cheers………………. 

=======

 Weekly Outlook 

 

After some volatile moves seen due to year end market will be getting back into normal trading activity. Economic news should once again dominate the market. On Friday, Bernanke tried to convince the market by giving reasoning and defending in support of his unconventional monetary policy that how money printing and extremely easy policy stance during last 6-years helped to avoid recession. One thing that has not been discussed is that how FED will shrink the size of its balance sheet or it is not bothered about the size.
This week there is barrage of economic data due to be released from all over the globe. Few of them will provide guidance about the economic performance in Europe and USA. But once again focus will be on Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment data that could play vital role in determining the trend and direction.
Two more importable event of the week is BOE & ECB policy announcement, which is likely to remain on hold. BOE do have a task in its hand as its housing market is heating, but this may not the appropriate time for Mark Carney to act. One thing that needs to be watched with care is the possible change in BOE’s bond purchase amount, which is currently GP 375 Billion, though not a favorable scenario.
ECB too may not have enough reason to slash its interest rate in its 1st meeting of the New Year, as growth is gradually picking up in the Euro-zone, which may be comforting factor for ECB not to act.  However, as always it is going to be Draghi’s press conference that will attract attention. Though in one of his recent appearance he has said that he does not see a need for further rate cut, but he has a habit to confuse market and may opt for softer tone to maintain a balance and let market guessing about ECB’s future strategy.
GOLD @ $ 1237.60 = Gold gained as per expectation in thin market condition, as holder s of gold position made every effort to halt the slide and attain better closing level due to year end. This could be good opportunity for sellers to step in to pick the top and sell Yellow metal, as risk is that strong US data will counter FED’s idea of maintaining low interest rate for longer period of time. Strong US growth and FED Tapering is a threat for gold. FED minutes could damage the sentiments of gold Bulls.
Next crucial level is $ 1247-53 zones break risks for a test of $ 1262-65. However, I am expecting gold to exhaust around 1st resistance level.  On the down side break of $ 1210-12 is required for a test for a steep fall. Break of $ 1192 will encourage for a test of $ 1175 ones.
EURO @ 1.3587 = Euro did enjoyed some unusual strength in the absence of major market players overlooking US economic gains. But in the presence of full fledged trading activity, economic data will provide the direction.
Initially Euro needs to hold around 1.3520 levels that should help Euro to move towards 1.3650-80 zones. Break will encourage for a test of 1.3725 before easing testing week’s new low. Or else the fall could extend to test 1.3420-40 zones.
GBP @ 1.6417 = Initially Pound could come under pressure, but needs to hold around 1st support levels of 1.6320-50 levels or else fall could extend to test 1.6250 zones. However, if Pound survives to hold 1st support levels we could another upside test 1.6525 remains strong resistance level. I am expecting Cable to trade in a 1.6220-1.6550 range.
JPY @ 104.84 = Yen weakness will depend on clearance of barrier 105.50 and 105.90 for 106.25. However, JPY could potentially challenge down move and could make gains, break 104.10 will encourage for test of 103.50-80 zones before Japanese currency heads for new lows.
AUD @ 0.8944 = Aussie should find strong support around 0.8860 levels and may further recover on break of 0.9020 for a test of 0.9050-70 zones. Any move beyond should find sellers. On the downside break of support levels will encourage for a move towards 0.8780.

 

Dec 11 -Gold 2014 Target  Break of $ 1000 for $ 800.

Twitter @asadcmka………

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More Later…………………..

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