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FED Deviates for Extremely Easy Policy Stance. QE to end Next Year – Dec 19

December 19, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

( Today All  Trades in Profit )

 

Dec 11 -Gold 2014 Target  Break of $ 1000 for $ 800.

 

6:17 AM  GOLD @ $ 1222 = wait to pick top to sell around $ 1225………..
6:39 AM AUD @ 0.8850 = Aussie could make another 15-20 pip gain. Allow the move and pick top to sell with Stops Loss 0.8910……….
7:32 AM  sir shall go short euro at 1.3686!!
7:33 AM  EURO @ 1.3685 = Book your profit around 1.3685-90 and pick top around 1.3695 to sell with Stops Loss 1.3735…………Cheers
7:43 AM  GOLD @ $ 1215 = Hold you gold sale around $ 1225………………
Keep selling levels Stop Loss & take chance for the next move…………
 8:20 AM Sir go short in AUD at current levels?
8:22 AM  Yes , no change in View…………………
8:40 AM GOLD @ $ 1207 = Ok book your profit around $ 1205-07…….Cheers
8:42 AM  Sir Amazing Gold Rally. Truly Enjoyed It…….Cheers….
 8:43 AM  GOLD @ 1203 = Risky but should hold $ 1195 for small correction……………
 8:44 AM GOLD @ $ 1201 = If you want to take chace buy around $ 1198-00, with tight Stops
8:47 AM  Not taking Chance. Will wait for your next Gold Signal. Thanks
9:17 AM  GOLD @ $ 1206= Book you profit around $ 1206-08…………..Cheers
9:39 AM  GBP @ 1.6377 = Likley to struggle to move beyond 1.6385-90 levels, as we have seen top around 1.6398, break of 1.6340 is required for deeper fall or esle 1.642025 before down again………
11:44 AM  There are couple of development that does not favor US Dollar buying right now, which could further weaken if US data disappoints.
Euro @ 1.3680 = may hold aound around 1.3650 for test of 1.3715-25 zones. Prefer long Euro………..
GBP @ 1.6377 = may find hard to break 1.6340-50 and could inch up towards 1.6410-20
AUD @ 0.8865 = may hold around 0.8840-50 for test of 0.8880-90
JPY $ 104.08 = may test 104.35………..
So watch out and SUGGEST closing all Long US Dollar Position.
 11:47 AM  Next in gold any selling level or wait
12:00 PM take is easy you have a bad habit of jumping all the time that forces me to make unnecessary post.
I always make best effort so that you and others end up making money. If I do not reply to your query that does not mean that I am sitting idle.
I actually wait for opportunity to enter into a trade so that you do not end up in loss.
So please be patient and let NYK settle down as it is still day one for them
Best Regards
1:10 PM  Take profit around
Euro @ 1.3752-58
GBP @ 1.6260-65
AUD @ 0.8840-45
1:12 PM  JPY Profit should be takem around 104.35-42…………
1:33 PM  View Unchanged. US Dollar slightly weak………
Gold may hold $ 1200 for $ 1210-12……….
1:34 PM  LONG JPY around 104.22-28. Stops 104.45
1:52 PM   Please give a final signal if gold $1205-07 holds
1:53 PM  Sell @ 1203 = Stops $ 1206…….
1:53 PM  Sell @ 1203 = Stops $ 1206…….
1:57 PM  JPY @ 104.22 = Avoid Long JPY as 10-year bond yield has hit 2.95 pct, which means JPY should weaken……………….
2:49 PM  GOLD @ $ 1200 = need to break $ 1997 for $ 1990 or else $ 1208-10. T ime to decide, its your risk as I will be leaving soon…..
3:07 PM  Ok pals, market is still unsure about the direction.
However, though small profits were booked but the good part is that no loss was booked.
Cheers until tomorrow………….
3:08 PM  booK profit around 1190 any more slide for today
 3:09 PM  please book profit….
tomorrow will be a new day for you. GL

DAILY COMMENTARY

Finally FED has given its verdict in favour of reducing its asset purchases and did not succumbing to external or Dovish pressure, as it had decided to do away from extremely easy policy that was implemented in 2008 after the financial crisis. Some of the interesting points worth noting is that recently much talked about subject inflation, which is below the target level of 2 pct did not bother FED much, as it did mention in its text of the statement that they expect inflation to remain around or below half-percent for next one to two years, so low inflation should not be matter of concern for reasonable period of time.
Apparently from the FED statement it appears very clear that it will target labour market to further improve job conditions through economic growth and it is encouraging too that the FED members sees risk to the outlook for economy and labour market looks balanced. This also means that future FED action will largely depend on US economic performance.
Tough USD 10 billion may be token or modest amount in size, but the move has began and market now knows that FED will be done with its QE program next year (2014). It is worth nothing that Janet Yellen in past considered very Dovish is no more only a voting FED member, as she has a responsibility and has bigger role to play. There was against vote that did not matter.
Another key point to note is that it’s benchmark unemployment remains 6.5 pct and is not lowered as market was guessing prior to monetary policy announcement.
It is still early to digest or have full grasp of FED’s overall move, as market may take some more time to analyse the pros and cons, but for guidance the immediate best indicators could be the behavior of emerging market, 10-years US Treasuries and Stock market.

GOLD @ $ 1220 = After last night FED’s move gold is set to fall and test new lows next year. Struggling Bears may try to push gold higher, which should be good opportunity to sell.
I am expecting gold to hold below $1232 levels and therefore sell on up moves for $ 1210-12. Break will encourage for a test of $ 1204-06 zones and a push towards $ 1187-90 could be a good possibility. Or else $ 1240.
EURO @ 1.3655 = Euro needs to move beyond 1.3690 for 1.3720 or else risk for a test of 1.3590 will increase on break of 1.3615.
GBP @ 1.6370 = Cable is still a hard nut to crack and bias remains on the upside, It has support around 1.6330-40 zones, break of 1.6395-00 will likely to challenge 1.6425-40 zones. or else 1.6300-10 before up.
JPY @ 103.97 = Needs to break 104.35, which could be tough for a test of 104.-80-90 zones. Failure to ease will push Japanese currency towards 103.55-60 before it further weakens.
AUD @ 0.8828 = Aussie could hold around 0.8750 levels for minor correction, but may find resistance around 0.8850-60 or else 0.8720.

Twitter @asadcmka………

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More Later…………………..

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