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ECB’s Dovish Tone & Strong US Jobs Data To Boost USD – Dec 2-6

December 1, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

 

 2:09 AM  GBP @ 1.6435 = Book your profit around 1.6435-45 zones and sell around top with Stop Loss 1.6490…………
8:07 AM  Hello Sir
Hold the short GOLD or TP here?  Thank you
8:08 AM  Gold @ $ 1242.50 = Book parofit around $ 1240-42.50 & gold short around $ 1240 Stops $ 1234………Cheers
9:06 AM  GOLD @ $ 1239 = Buy around $1237-39. Stops $ 1234
 9:10 AM  GBP @ 1.6393 = Now if you have sold GBP in Asian morning session around 1.6435, then either take profit around 1.6383-93 levels or hold with Stop at your Selling level…..
Risk is that godd data will encourge Cable to test 1.6440-50 zones……..
Cheers…………
9:18 AM  EURO @ 1.3575 = I am expecting 1.3540-50 to hold for another upside test or esle 1.3510-20……….
9:28 AM   Excellent Start of the Week again sir…….Thanks
9:30 AM  GBP long before data
Tp and SL ?  thanks
9:33 AM    Yes , nornally I make a slow start at the begining of new week and try to gather few chips before becoming agressive if I see opportunity though at times I do make wrong calls. But as I always say, to be successful disciple is the key…..Cheers
 9:37 AM  EURO @ 1.3546 = Buy around 1.3540-46 Stops 1.3510…………
9:39 AM  AUD @ 0.9130 = I would buy Aussies around 0.915-25. Stops 0.9070……….
 9:41 AM   GBP @ 1.6410 = Cable is a buy around 1.6395. Stops 1.6360…………
2:12 PM   holding buy position in gold arond current level as there is breanke speech as us open what dou expect doviehness or normal
12:14 PM   I know my responsibility.
If you are not comfortable sqaure your position, because I have no idea about Bernanke’s speech……………..
12:45 PM   Gold still needs to make a clear break of $ 1234 for $ 1230. However, now $ break of 1238-40 is looking tough………….
 1:03 PM  GOLD @ $ 1238 = Prefer off-laoding Long around $ 1238-40……………
 1:26 PM   Close all positions before US data………..
GBP @ 1.6390 = Get rid of Long Cable around 1.6390-95…………….
EURO @ 1.3540= Square Euro position around 1.3540-45……………
AUD @ 0.9134= Square…………..
1:27 PM  JPY @ 102.90 = book your profit…………………….Cheers
 1:51 PM  where should go long gbp if seen 1.6340 ?
 1:53 PM   avoid Cable buying for now as it loosing its moments. It failed to move despite excellent PMI. It is due for correction……..
This is why I am keeping quiet and watching the move……………….GL
1:59 PM  GOLD @ $ 1238 = sell around $ 1238-40………..Stops $ 1244
2:15 PM   GOLD @ $ 1238.25 = Do not jump, wait watch and then sell around $ 1240
2:52 PM  GOLD @ $ 1235.90 = OK, Square before US data around $ 1235-36………
3:02 PM  Prefered buying AUD around 0.9070-80. stops 0.9040
EURO around 1.3510. Stops 1.3470…………….
Gold could test $ 1220-25 zones…………….
 3:02 PM   Ok pals, Good start to the week.
Cheers until tomorrow……..
3:04 PM  what about gbp ?
3:04 PM   1.6280 – 1.64……………….

 

 

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

 

Last week we saw mixed activity in the market with USA in holiday mood after Thanksgiving Holiday. There was no major release of economic data’s, but few releases such as housing, building permit and drop in jobless claims were encouraging, though data relating to confidence level did not get the required boost due to US shutdown.
Report of low confidence level should not be a matter of concern, as it is the reflection of past performance. Whereas rise in building permit is a healthy sign that should give further boost to this week’s Payroll and jobs data and beginning of holiday season that will be followed by Christmas shopping, which should improve the overall economic performance in coming days.
After subdued economic performance and incomplete economic data release following US shutdown, indications are positive, as market will be witnessing better economic performance. Softer oil prices and favorable weather condition helped prices to ease that should narrow down the trade deficit number. Surge in building permit is encouraging for the housing sector growth that should depict more home sale.
Meanwhile, two major events of the week will be Monetary Policy announcement by Bank of England (BOE) and by European Central Bank (ECB). BOE is unlikely to act and is not expected to make any policy changes because when the direction is right, combination should not be disturbed. Similarly, it is too early for ECB to announce policy changes, although European currency is too strong, credit expansion is not keeping up its pace with the desired level of growth and deflationary pressure persist.
While, economic data release from Europe will be watched with interest, but Germany that has been big support for the Euro-zone region, rang alarm bell last week, as its retail sales fell sharply against market expectation of rise in number. German Unemployment data gave further blow when it rose by another 10.000.
Hence, I will not be surprised to see Draghi using Dovish language to taper down the sentiment. So in all probability it is going to be verbal rather than anything in practical.

Twitter @asadcmka………

More Later…………………..

GOLD @ 1250.70 = Last week, gold saw a dip, as per expectation almost hitting target $ 1225 before correcting. I do not see change in trend this week too, as prospect of better jobs data and strength of US Dollar should encourage seller to dominate during the week until US Payroll announcement.
Initially, I am expecting $ 1260-68 levels to hold for a move down to test $ 1225-30 zones. Pressure on the downside will mount once $ 1215-18 surrenders, for a bigger fall towards $ 1180-85 zones. However, move beyond $ 1280-85 will delay down move to challenge @$ 1308-10 zones.
EURO @ 1.3590 = Euro has strong resistance around 1.3680-00 only break would risk for test of 1.3720-50 zones. However, bias this week should be on the downside, but needs to break 1.3505-10 levels for 1.3440, break here will risk for more loses. Range for the week 1.3380 – 1.3750.
GBP @ 1.6368 = In its six-monthly report, withdrawal of Bank of England’s support for mortgage funding after signal emerging of strong growth in UK. It seems that the UK Central Bank has learnt a lesson and has decided to take pro-active measure to avoid possible housing mess, which also leads to faster inflation. BOE is less worried with the strength of Pound Sterling that also helps to keep a check on inflation. However, last week consumer confidence gave mild blow to the bullish sentiment when it unexpectedly fell, but November, Nationwide UK House price continued it’s upwards journey that supports BOE’s recent stance and is Bullish for GBP unless economy starts to melt.
GBP could still find buyers and may find strong support around 1.6240-50 levels and only break here would risk for 1.6120. Though we could see a move towards 1.6420-50, but strong US Dollar sentiment may halt further rise. Range for week 1.6120-1.6450.
JPY @ 102.42 = Injection of liquidity through massive buying of Japanese government bond, which is part of Japan’s structural reform helped Yen to weaken. Furthermore, Japanese investors are allocating more risk overseas through purchase of foreign bond, which is also exerting pressure on Japanese currency.
Though weakness of JPY to continue, Japanese currency has strong support around 103.05-20 levels, it needs to break for a test of 103.80, failure to test would encourage correction in Yen, but 101.40 should hold for continuation of weakness of JPY or else 100.50. Range for the week 100.50 – 103.80.
AUD @ 0.9107 = I am expecting Aussie to hold 0.8950-80 levels and see risk for a move towards 0.9170-80 or 0.9235. Break here could see a possible test of 0.9310. However, if support level surrenders a move towards 8.910 cannot be avoided. Range for the week 0.8910 – 0.9380.
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