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Gold Ready To Take Pounding – Consider Offloading your GBP – Nov 29

November 29, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

5:15 AM  uk gfk consumer confidence data came negative will it impact on pound ?
5:37 AM   its the measuremt of consumer activity, which is down that could give minor space to correct. But as you know that its is the housing and manufacturing factors that plays important role in the economy has a a better say.
Yesterday’s decsion to halt funding is a sig of worry for BoE indicating tow things. They are cautious that they do not over lend and secondly inflation may pick at faster pace, which is a huge support for GBP.
Now watch today’s Natioanwide Housing prices. Poor data will surely give bloe tp Pound Stg, but a good number will confirm that the BoE’s fear of housing bubble could be right.
For trading purpose I would stick to my moring post and prefer buying GBP on dip, as it should provide 40-50 pip opportnity……….
View is unchanged…………………….
 7:01 AM   Euro @ 1.3610 = May test 1.3560=70……….
 7:01 AM   sell with Stops 1.3630……..
7:07 AM   Cable looking good to test 1.6375-90 zones. No change in view…..
7:12 AM  JPY @ 102.25 = Hold your JPY Long osition, as earlier view is intact.  Place you Buy Yen as Stops………
7:14 AM  AUD @ 0.9090 = View unchanged………barrier 0.9125 intact
7:22 AM  EURO @ 1.3610 = View on Euro has changed after poor retail sales data. Any upmove should hold around 1.3635-40………..
 7:25 AM   Is it going to test 1.3560 levels?
7:27 AM  Yes, I gave signal about 28 minutes ago……..
” 7:01 AM Euro @ 1.3610 = May test 1.3560=70″……….
 8:01 AM   GBP @ 1.6335 = Do not jump to buy Cable allow it to fall as drop in Euro may pull down GBP a bit……watch and wait for 1.6315-20 instead of 1.6325-35 levels…
8:07 AM   GOLD @ $ 1249 = The expected move has occccured Long should take profit and Sell around $ 1250 with Stops $ 1256……..
 8:36 AM  AUD @ 0.9115 = Sell around 0.9115-20. stops 0.9155……….
 9:34 AM   GBP @ 1.6338 = “Watchout” Pound is suspect as failure to move above 1.6370 now risk for a test of 1.6270-80……….
10:18 AM Hi all, I know that couple of friends went short GBP at low levels. I do remember on that day it was this week, I did warn not to trade in Cable.
The problem is that when you ask for the level or view in the middle of the range, I cannot be rude all the time and I have answer back half of the time, as it is your right to trade and I cannot forcefully stop you from trading at your preferred levels.
You have to understand that I have to do lot of hard work and keep track of every news/moves before asking you to enter in to a trade.
And a “Reminder” that when I say apply STOPS I mean it. Disciple is the key to be successful in trading. But all those associated with me since last over 2-years may have noted that my score on an average ranges between 80 – 90 pct.
Back on GBP the possible good news is that we may have seen the top around 1.6375 today and couple of more bad data will see more correction in Pound Sterling.
Al the best.
10:22 AM GOLD @ $ 1244 = Book your profit around $ 1242-44…………Cheers
2:39 PM  golds abovev 1250 again any sellimng level
2:42 PM Today is month end and market is quiet.
I am not willing to spoil this excellent month.
However, I still see top around $ 1255, if breaks we could a push towards $ 1260-62. Now its yorr call.  ……………..GL
2:49 PM
EURO @ 1.3600
GBP @ 1.6322
AUD @ 0.9110
JPY @ 102.28
Suggest closing all position…..
If you are keen to carry on apply 20-30 pip Stop Loss…………
Thank you all. it was another excellent month…..
Have a nice weekend…………………………..

 

 

DAILY COMMENTARY

We could be heading for another slow day with thin market activity due to low trading volume in the foreign exchange market, but trading could be choppy due to month end and rages could be wide.
Yen has weakened due to increased military activity in the disputed air defence zone as Chines jet claims it to be a routine exercises. This could be in response to US 52-bomber that flew couple of days ago over same territory. Though there does not seem any purpose behind such an exercise. Another big factor that is helping Japanese currency to weaken is massive buying of Japanese Government Bond by BOJ through which Bank of Japan is injecting liquidity. Excess liquidity will also help to create inflation, as Japan is desperate to increase economic activity and push exports higher.
In UK, BOE decided to halt its support for mortgage funding that was announced through its six-monthly financially report. The need to stop funding could be because of substantial growth and the strength of housing market that could be heading for faster inflation and possible bubble. I think the support to the housing market may continue with a plan or else it may not take time for UK economic slowdown. The other risk is that with such a decision the chances of rates increase is faster that has helped Pound Sterling to make further gains.
Meanwhile, tough a quite day in USA as there is no economic data due to be released today. Europe will once gain keep market busy with the release of economic data.

Twitter @asadcmka………

More Later…………………..

GMT 2:50 – GOLD @ $ 1242.80 = If gold is able to clear $ 1246-50 zones, it may make a futile attempt to move towards $ 1260. However, I do not see such a move occurring as there is huge risk for sharp fall next week, so buyers may refrain from showing aggression. Break of $ 1228 could see acceleration at a faster pace and I will not be surprised to see test of $ 1215. Preferred strategy would to pick top to sell.

GMT 2:55 – EURO @ 1.3617 = Likely to hold around 1.3580-90 for a move towards 1.3540-45, break will encourage for a move towards 1.3565-70 zones or else 1.3565.
GMT 3:2 – GBP @ 1.6364 = Cable may have another good day as it may find support around 1.6325-35 for test of 1.6375-90 zone, only break would encourage for further gains. However, fall below 1.6270-80 would risk for bigger drop next.
GMT 3:09 – JPY @ 102.53 = Japanese currency has strong support around 102.80-90 zones and only break would encourage for further fall towards 103.20-40 zones. However, corrective rally could occur for possible test 101.80-90, but JPY will give strong resistance if 101.40-50 is tested.
GMT 3:14 – AUD @ 0.9076 = AUD has barrier around 0.9125, which could not be easy to surpass unless 0.9035 is tested break would risk for a crucial test of 0.9010 zones an could bounce back from the lows of 90’s unless 0.8970 surrenders.
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