Skip to content
Tags

, , , ,

Gold, Pick Top On Correction – USD Down Before up Again – Nov 27

November 27, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

4:17 AM   GBP @ 1.6222 = Prefer selling Cable around 1.6230-35. Stops 1.6265………
8:33 AM  CARE : Selling of GBP around 1.6230-35 recomended earlier is not valid as UK GDP data is expected in next 57 minutes………….
 8:36 AM  Sir, Earlier view of EURO still holds true?
8:38 AM  GOLD @ $ 1248 = Profit taking is prefered and SHORT Gold by picking the top is suggested around $ 1248-50. with STOPS $ 1255………….
 8:48 AM   Yes, but since German Gfk is due in next 14 minutes no new position is recomended. Sqauaring is prefered or place buying as Stops Loss. Any move towards 1.3610-20 shoud be good opportunity to buy…..
8:49 AM   JPY @ 1001.74 = Buying of Yen is prefeed around 101.80 levels. STOPs 102.10……..
9:03 AM  Euro @ 1.3591 will test 1.3610-20, prefer buying. Pick top……………
9:05 AM   No issues, if long at currenct levels offload as Euro will make 20-30 pip gain……
9:06 AM   All position are in control and manageable.
9:26 AM   JPY @ 101.75 = I am expecting Yen to top around 101.88………..
9:31 AM  GBP to top around 1.6280……………..
9:37 AM  1.6280 top?
9:39 AM  Yes, any upside should exhaust around that level for 250-300 point drop……
9:46 AM   GOLD @ $ 1251 = This is what I call pick top…………..
9:47 AM   Hope you are enjoying the rally……..!
9:50 AM   Yes, Certainly Chief. I am waiting to pick top on JPY…
Thanks to you Sir…   ALL HAIL ASAD SAHAB…
 9:54 AM   GBP @ 1.6280 = Patience is required before slling pick top instead of rushing…….
10:25 AM   GBP @ 1.6292 = Sell around 1.63 levels.Next Major level is 1.6380. Suggested Stops 100 pip. Now you have to decide the size, as this is for Swing or Position Trading. Minor i=size is prefered……….
10:27 AM  Do not force yourself for Swing or Postion Trading unless you have thye loss sustaining capacity………….
1:19 PM   sir abot gold do u see break of 1258 n move up side whats ur view in gold as i m on selling position in gold
1:26 PM  that will depend on data. Poor data may see a push towards $ 1260-65 zones before down.
Suggest squaring now and enter after the data………………..
 1:30 PM  Dollar Up Gold Down
 1:30 PM   Dollar Up Gold Down
 1:32 PM  Hold your Euro sale above 1.3610…………
Gold shoudl hold below $ 1256-58………..
1:34 PM  GBP @ 1.6311 = sell around 1.6320 Stops 1.6360………….
1:37 PM  GOLD @ $ 1252 = Sell stops $ 1258………..
2:40 PM  sir,  UPDATE yen please.  Thanks
 2:47 PM   Test of 102.10-20 is crucial. Today’s data is supportive of strong payroll numbers. Let see if we can see break oh this crucial level or not. I doubt, as next tarding could be 100.80-102.25. But strong Jobs data could weaken Yen….
 2:49 PM   GOLD @ $ 1247 = Needs to break $ 1245-47 levels for $ 1238 or esle $ 1250-52 before down again………………..
So you decide if you want to take profit or hold..Cheers
 3:02 PM   Ok, pals end of another excellent day.
I am leaving you all to choose your level to close your position. 
As always either take profit or apply Stops at your buying levels.
US Dollar is likey to make more gains.

Cheers……………

 
================

DAILY COMMENTARY

 
We did see choppy moves in the foreign exchange market as Australian Dollar received hammering after RBA’s Deputy Governor showed his discomfort due to weak economy and strong AUD. Japanese currency did not succumb to any sort of pressure, as weak stocks helped the currency to stabilize around current levels.
While Euro and Pound Sterling was not impressed with the strong US housing market performance, as sellers of US Dollar rushed to offload their USD holdings after consumer confidence fell against market expectation because the confidence level of consumer did not recover after the US shutdown settlement that may take come time. 
But gold saw sellers taking advantage of its early strength that gave another opportunity to Gold Bears to celebrate during the day, as the metal remained under pressure despite weak USD due to quite a few factors that is not helping gold to recover. Tapering fear is the biggest threat to gold.
However, I still believe that housing sector performance should not be ignored, which is the backbone of US economy that was specifically highlighted in FED report. I would like to specially point out rise in Building Permit that could turn the table. This should override the low confidence level of consumer report, which reflect the past performance, as payroll could good surprise on the upside and hence, retailers will surely bump in for holiday shopping.
Meanwhile, GBP tone though strong after inflation report. I think what Mark Canary is saying is that despite attaining 7 pct unemployment target he would stick to easy policy so that the recovery does not get spoiled and UK growth is able gather momentum, which could mean hiking of rate is not on the focus at least for the time being.
While, release of economic data from all over the globe will help to further determine the future growth trend, but do not expect problems to be sorted out overnight, as this debate on economy will never end. 
GMT 3:12 – GOLD @ $ 1245 = The current rally in Asia should should hold around $ 1248-50 for another small dip. i am expecting $ 1238-40 levels to hold. But on wider range $ 1234 and $ 1258 are the levels to watch any violation could mean more moves possible. However, view remains Bearish for Gold.

GMT 3:18 – EURO @ 1.3570 = The current move may continue until reaching close to 1,3590 before easing and dip should hold around 1.3550-60 levels. If it is able to hold 1.3525, we could later see the rally stretching towards 1.3613 zones before exhausting.
GMT 3:24 – GBP @ 1.6206 = Should hold around 1.6170-75 levels, as buying interest will see demand for GBP. Break of 1.6230 will encourage to enter 1.6250-80 zones. Fall below 1.6120-40 levels would mean more losses for Pound Sterling.
GMT 3:30 – JPY @ 101.43 = Only move beyond 101.60 will see another test of 101.80. However, as long as 102.10 holds, risk for test and break of 101.05-10 levels is still a good possibility. A visit to 100.80 levels cannot be ruled out.
GMT 3:35 – AUD @ 0.9121 = As long as 0.907080 holds minor upside adjustment is possible, but there is strong resistance around -.9150-60 zones, break may encourage for 0.9185. However, threat of downside is intact.
 
 
 

Twitter @asadcmka………

More Later……………….

 
Advertisements
Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: