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ECB Looks Desperate – Nov 26

November 26, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

7:28 AM hi sir,  If i am not wrong the UK’s inflation report was supposed to come at Wednesday but now its showing today. Any caution to take in GBP Shorts ? Thanks
7:28 AM   Hello Sir, Preferred entry levels for AUD?
7:31 AM  Yes, I would wait to enter around 0.9210-20 znes. Stops 0.9250…
7:34 AM  surprisingly I noted few moments ago. Yes caution is required if you want to make quick sell then OK around 1.6170-80 with Stops 1.6198. Because soft would bad for GBP, but higher than expectation could mean possible upside test of 1.6220-25 and may even stertch up to 1.6250…
7:37 AM   GOLD @ $ 1255 = Long in gold should take their porfit around $ 1256-58 and pick top to Sell…………
 8:09 AM   GBP @ 1.6178 = sell Stops 1.6198………………..
8:12 AM  GOLD @ $ 1252 = Could test $ 1248-49 before up again…………
 8:19 AM   Euro @ 1.3555 = Sell around 1.3555-60. Stops 1.3590…………….
8:32 AM   I would still concentrate after selling Euro & prefer offloading GBP around 1.6170-80 before inflation report hearing as market will be very choppy……….
9:24 AM  Sir,  AUD 0.9153 .. TP here or wait for more drop.  Thank
 9:26 AM   better book your profit around 0.9140-50, as it has been unpredictable few days……….
9:52 AM   GBP @ 1.6180 = Square & Get rid of GBP position around current levels, as it was my wrong call before the inflation report, which I completely missed ………………..
 10:41 AM   Sir,   Any new position to take in GBP ?
10:42 AM  Not at the moment let the dust settle down…………..
11:01 AM  Sir, in which direction or to which levels euro will be going?
12:05 PM    sir any levels for goin long aud!!
12:11 PM   pd, next support around 0.9070-80 should hold, but 0.9160-70 looks difficult to crack…..
12:18 PM   Gold buy around 48preffered or eait for ut nextt post on gold
12:25 PM  GOLD @ $ 1247.40 = book your profit around 1246-1247.50……..cheers
12:27 PM     I know that you are getting impatient, as I am not responding to your query, normally I do not respond to all queries unless necessary, but this time it is intentional. It is because if I frequently respond to all position queries it will confuse you and all others that have taken position in Euro. I am monitoring Euro moves.
Break of 1.3515-20 will be beneficial for everyone short in Euro. For the moment, view remains unchanged
 12:28 PM  Closed AUD.. Good entry Thanks sir.
Coming short in Gold from 1257.13 1255.11 1250.00 .
Hold or TP.  Thanks
12:31 PM  book your profit around $ 1245-47……..May make small recovery, if dips to around $ 1242…needs to break $ 1237 for more loses…
12:38 PM  Kind of stupid question that you will not like cause i am playing against ur DAILY CLOSE POSITION formula but sir i am holding some Euro shorts from 1.3730+ and i have put the TP @ 1.33 and SL 1.38 ..
Just some words on long term trend of Euro.
Thanks
 12:40 PM   This is one of the most ideal position that you are carrying………………
1:26 PM   EURO @ 1.3547 = Ok now since US data is due in next 5-minutes either sqaure the position or if you are holding then decide or apply Stop Loss
1:31 PM   US Dollar Up – Gold further Down
 1:37 PM   sir shall short gbp!!
1:39 PM   Well, I think it is safe to try short around 1.6155-60, as 1.6198 is important levels that can be Stops. Need to break 1.6110 for test of 1.6080-90 levels or else Cable can bounce back to 1.6150-70 zones………..
1:42 PM   We may have seen the to in Euro, but may hold around 1.3515-20 levels until Consumer Confirdence data. Good data will help US Dollar rally………..
2:00 PM   No chnage in view US Dollar ro make gains Gold to test $ 1237-40……..
 2:06 PM   GOLD @ $ 1246 = sell Stops $ 1249…………..
 2:58 PM  Either book your profit in Gold & Euro or Place you trade levels as Stops. Consumer confidence is the last leg of today’s data, which should be OK
3:00 PM   Book your profit hurry up……….
3:02 PM  Ok pals, it was an excellent day, as there was Zero wrong call…….
Cheers until tomorrow…………..
 3:04 PM  Sir, any suggestions for JPY and AUD?
3:08 PM   AUD = I would favor buy around 0.9030-50 levels if seen. Stops 0.8980 for a big figure move.     Yen = View is unchanged from my morning post…………

==============

DAILY COMMENTARY

It was quite a mixed day in the foreign exchange market with US Dollar making gains against Japanese currency, but after gaining against Euro, Aussie and Gold, US Dollar move was halted.
It seems that global Central Bankers have have come up with a new strategy, which is commonly practiced by their other fellow Bankers. First it was the slogan of easy monetary policy and quantitative easing, then came forward guidance and now they are confusing the market about the policy decision through speeches or press release at various levels, which seems to be the latest strategy.

Same happened yesterday, as one of the ECB official was in disagreement with Draghi last week’s statement that ECB has no plan to cut rates or negative deposit rates. Germans are furious with the ECB policy stance. Such behavior clearly suggest that economies are struggling, mending is no more working in their favor and this is because even the global unconventional monetary policy tools have failed to respond, which is a dangerous development.
Well back to market, it was almost a dull trading day due to lack of release of any major economic data that could not provide guidance. Recently, US Dollar made excessive move against JPY, which has come to halt probably in line with NIkkei that fell today due to its inverse relationship with the Japanese currency that I warned in my yesterday’s weekly post. I think the US Dollar upside momentum against JPY has slowed down or may have halted for now.
Meanwhile, today in US session focus should once gain be on the release of housing market data that has slowed in recent months because of rising home prices caused by higher mortgage rates. Release of Consumer confidence data would be another guideline, as it captures the confidence level of individuals reflecting economic active to a certain extent that should show improvement as compared to previous that was dampen by the shutdown.
GMT 3:16 – GOLD @ $ 1252 = Gold could once again make a move towards $ 1256-58 levels. $ 1265 remains key on the upside that should not crack. Support is around $ 1245 if fails to hold could dip to test $ 1238.

GMT 3:20 – EURO @ 1.3533 = Upside could be tough around 1.35.55-60 zones and only break would encourage for 1.3580-90. However, a push below 1.3495-00 is required to test 1.3450-70 zones.
GMT 3:24 – GBP @ 1.6153 = See downside risk as long as 1.6198 holds and upside should hold around 1.6165-70 levels, but needs to fall below 1.6120-25 for 1.6090 or else could make another up move.
GMT 3:31 – JPY @ 101.47 = Japanese currency is likely to trade in a 101.15 – 101.80 band for the rest of the day, a Yen gains may exhaust around 101.20’s and unless 100.80 is challenged there is no threat of JPY making recovery. However, 102 may not be easy hurdle to cross.
GMT 3:34 – AUD @ 0.9182 = Top should be around 0.92 levels and unless breaks 0.9240 risk for a test and break of 0.9150 for 0.9120-30 zones.

Twitter @asadcmka………

More Later……………….

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