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Gold and US 10-year Bond yield negates Dovish ideas – Nov 20

November 20, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

6:35 AM   Sir shall go long aud at 0.9380???
7:20 AM  Stops 0.9335……….
9:42 AM   GBP = I think 1.6180-90 will be hard nut to crack…………
9:44 AM   sir about gold should buy around 68 if yes then sl
 9:48 AM  Stops $ 1262…….Its your call. Not mine.
10:20 AM  Hi sir,
Holding GU long.. wait till 1.6170+ or take small profit here ? Thanks
10:37 AM  Moeen, take profit around 1.6155-60…………Cheers
 11:59 AM   what about gold
12:04 PM   nothing new to add………..;-)
1:31 PM  USD to gain Gold to suffer more……………..
1:31 PM  Yen to weaken should hold 99.80…………
1:41 PM   Do not expect too much to happen until FOMC minutes is out…..
I am expecting top around 1.3540-50 – 1.6170-80 – 99.80 – $ 1265-68 0.9395
 2:38 PM  Sir, does that mean that all the currencies will go down after reaching your given tops?
 2:44 PM  No, the level is until FOMC minutes is announced.
market will remain unpredictable, but we will have more clarity after today’s announcement……….
2:48 PM  Gold, as you all may have known by now is clobbered after SNB decision not to hold as asset.
It is ripe now for a big fall, any hint of teperng or comfort could see plunge below $ 1200 soon, but dealy will provide some breathing space.
Profit should be taken around $ 1252-56 zones…………
3:07 PM
Ok pals,   Cheers until tomorrow………

DAILY COMMENTARY

 

Global Financial market remained clueless, as everyone kept on guessing about the next direction. Speeches by the various FED officials does not give hint about its plan, but tone has surely turned mildly Dovish, as Bernanke spoke same language almost repeating what Yellen had said in front of the Banking senate Committee with little bit of twist and turn that the policy will remain highly accommodative for long period of time, labour market needs to improve and wants growth to improve, inflation needs to pick-up in medium-term, etc. There was nothing new in Bernanke’s speech.
I think with mixed bag of things happening in recent past, today’s FED FOMC meeting minutes will be interesting, Assuming that the weak picture painted about the US in October until now the minutes language should support the view. I would still bet that if the language is neutral or no concern is shown market sentiment will start shifting towards Fed’s plan of scaling down and focus will shift towards next month’s job data that should gradually erase Dovish sentiment. During this period US economic data will provide better guidance’s. What we should ignore is that Gold and US 10-year Bond yield negates all Dovish ideas.
Euro could be heading for last up-tic, as it gains is more related to US factor than its own strength. US economic activity will gather momentum as we are close to holiday season. Strong German ZEW could be good for a 50 pip trade, but it is not the trend setter because the growth levels in Euro-zone region remains sluggish, strong European currency does not serve the purpose, deflationary remain high and various ECB officials spoke for the need of further easing. So with current Euro strength it has  entered a dangerous zone that may not suite ECB plan.
Meanwhile, today trading activity should gather momentum due to release of BOE & FOMC minutes. Prior to release of FED FOMC minutes, barrage of data will be released in USA that should keep traders on their toes.

Twitter @asadcmka………

GMT 3:09 – GOLD @ $ 1275.80 = During the day gold is likely to trade within $ 1268-82 band. However, in a broader picture break out of $ 1260 and $ 1295 could bring bigger moves.
GMT 3:16 – EURO @ 1.3560 = Euro has support around 1.3510, it stays above risk for test of 1,3585-05 zones, break would encourage for test of 1.3625-40 levels. However, a fall below 1.3470-80 will confirm more losses.
GMT 3:23 – GBP @ 1.6125 = Choppy trading is expected, as key will move beyond 1.6180-90 zones, needs to break for test of 1.6250-00 zones. However, fall below 1.6050-70 will challenge 1.5970-80 levels.
GMT 3:29 – JPY 100.04 = Break of 100.30 is required to challenge 100.80-90 level where Japanese currency ha strong support. A push beyond 99.40 will see JPY making gains to test 99.10-20 zones.
GMT 3:33 – AUD @ 0.9421 = Aussie is likely to make another feeble upside attempt and should exhaust beyond 0.9450-60 and may struggle to move towards 0.95. However, on dip it has strong support around 0.9370-80 zones.

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