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Back to Economics ! – Nov 15

November 15, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

7:52 AM  Asad Sahab, Views unchanged on JPY & AUD?
8:18 AM Yes, view remains unchanged. Aussie will remain weak.
However, JPY has many factors. NIKKEI’s strength and economic conditions is not helping Yen to gain strength. 10-year bond movement is another important indicator, as yield has recoverd after Yellen’s last 2-appearance, as she hinted that she will be more focused on growth, which means QE possible for some more months. If true this should support Yen.
Preffered entry levels would be around 100.40-50, with Stops if 100.80-90 surrenders.
I will be back after an hours, as I have to leave for Friday Prayers..Cheers
8:18 AM GOLD @ $ 1283 = profit should be taken around $ 1281-83…cheers
11:18 AM  We have seen perfect hit of our initial targets………
Gold $ 1282 – EURO 1.3435 – GBP 1.6091 – AUD 0.9310 & JPY 100.40…
At the I have nothing new to add, as market will take fresh direction from US data………
11:22 AM  Amazing, When is the US data coming out?
11:25 AM
Batch of datas will be released in 2 hours & US Industrial Production after 2hrs – 50 mins………….
12:25 PM   EURO 1.3456 = Euro has support & may hold 1.3435-40 levels for a move towards 1.3475-80, break could see a test of 1.3500-10 zones………..
1:14 PM   JPY @ 100.28 = One recomended position holding at the moment is YEN purchase above 100.40. Target is around 99.75-85 zones. Place STOPS around 100.55-60 instead of 100.80…………
 1:32 PM  Dollar weak Gold slighly up before down……….
1:34 PM  after data next in gold no position yet
 1:35 PM  level to sell
1:36 PM   Be brave to read & act on the flash @ $ 1284 I said slightly up then doen. May test $ 1288-90 zones before down again
 1:46 PM  GOLD @ $ 1289 = Book profit and Sell around $ 1289 . Stops $ 1294…………..
2:04 PM   GBP @ 1.6110 = @ 1.6122 Cable has hit the top, if you look at my moring post I said it could surge by another 25-30………..Watch out and do not hold GBP unnecessarily. Cheers
2:13 PM  GBP @ 1.6120 = poor US data could pusg Cable towards 1.6180 levels. Ideally picking top would not be bad idea with 80-100 pip Stops for 200-300 pip drop…………
 2:23 PM  EURO @ 1.3497 = The expected upmove has occured and have seen test of 1.3500-10 zones. Now 1.3555-60 remains acrucial level as downmove is possible………
2:45 PM  GOLD @ $ 1288 = I think gold sale around $ 1289 should be sqaured around $ 1288, as failure to break $ 1286-87 risks for test of $ 1292-94 zones or esle if dips coulld extend up to $ 1284 before up again…………………….
 2:59 PM  buy gold at these level or wait for 84 n sl
 3:00 PM  Do not spoil your weekend…………..
This was your profitable week…………….Cheers
 3:02 PM  Suggest squaring all positions. Have a nice weekend…………….Cheers

DAILY COMMENTARY

So Yellen is done with her presentation, which was in line of Bernanke’s stance. The approach was similar and her argument was no different. There was no element of surprise in her statement, which is fair enough and understandable. Overall all it was a balanced approach on her first appearance in front of the Banking Senate Committee. Her emphasis was on growth and she showed her unwillingness to compromise until certain target is achieved, which is obviously a Dovish comment.
I think will now market will start focusing on economics for clues. Despite US shutdown, recent release of US economic data did not disappoint the market. Data due to be released for next couple of months could produce enough substance to debate on Fed reduction of its bond purchase.
While, European data was once again very disappointing. Growth fell in France and in Germany, economic slowdown is a matter of concern that clearly supports ECB’s accomodative policy stance stance, which is why policy makers of Euro-zone are openly supporting soft stance. Yesterday’s release of Euro-zone economic report gave further blow to the sentiment as growth was revised down. Do keep a close watch on the release of European CPI numbers, weak data will add pressure on further easing.
Meanwhile, to my surprise weak retail sales data did not bother Pound Sterling, probably because its impact will be short lived, as drop was due to fall in household appliances for which warmer weather is blamed. Whereas, on a broader perspective the growth pace in UK is higher than expectation. We are also approaching year end and normally during this period demand for goods rise and job condition improves. However, If Pound can another 70-100 pip gain, I see that as good selling level, because Cable will make correction before making another up-move.
GMT 3:19 – GOLD @ $ 1289.50 = Gold could be probing top around $ 1290-93 for a fall needs to break $ 1278-80 for $ 1260. Only break above $ 1298 delays down move.

GMT 3:24 – EURO @ 1.3453 = Euro should struggle to move beyond 1.3475-85, break will encourage for test 1.3510, but 1.3550-55 is the crucial levels that should not surrender as see dip to test 1.3430-35, break is required to to hit 1.3410. Bias remains on the downside.
GMT 3:28 – GBP @ 1.6068 = Cable has support around 1.6030-40 zones, may hold for test of 1.6090-00 zones. Only break risks for another 25-30 pip surge. 1.5980 should not surrender.
GMT 3:32 – JPY @ 100.22 = Japanese currency has strong support around 100.55, which may not surrender. Break of 99.80 will see gains for JPY extending towards 99.50-60 zones. Or else 100.80.
GMT 3:36 – AUD @ 0.9345 = The behavior could be very similar to yesterday’s move as the Australian currency may struggle to move beyond 0.9380-90 levels. Risk remains for a dip towards 0.9310, breaks would encourage for 0.9380. Or else 0.9410.

Twitter @asadcmka………

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