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Market awaits Yellen – Nov 13

November 13, 2013

Inter–action with my Blog Subscribers……

6:40 AM  GOLD @ $ 1274 = Book your profit around $ 1274-76 & pick top to Sell Stops $ 1282………….Cheers
8:11 AM  Gold @ $ 1277 = Sell Stops $ 1282……….
9:33 AM   sir what about gbp after data!!
10:10 AM   GBP @ 1.5925 = Market is waiting for BOE quarterly report and since GBP is stuck around 1.5920. I think if reading is high or inflationary we are going to witness further GBP gains. So squaring of GBP is the preffred strategy for the moment. So Square Cable position if SHORT…………
10:39 AM  sir what abt gbp now!
 10:40 AM   Stay away from GBP………..
11:01 AM    sir shall go long euro at 1.3420!!
12:15 PM   sir any positions for gbp now!!
12:25 PM   GBP @ 1.5973 = Basically, sentiments have changed. We have to see the overall reaction, but support 1.5930-40 should hold for a break and test of 1.6010-20 for 1.6050-60……….. Caution only if 1.5910 breaks…………
1:24 PM   sir holding gold sell ok
1:28 PM   Yes, I know you all are holding your sale above @ $ 1277. Unfortunately since last two days market dips late because of clock being forwarded by 1 hour.
Now the key levels is $ 1272-74 that needs to break for $ 1267-69. If fails could see a small up move towards $ 1280 zones before down again…….

1:43 PM   Hi sir,  Any change in view of EURO after Peter Praet’s comments about negative interest rates ?  Holding Euro Shorts
Thanks
2:59 PM  My moring View is intact, this is why I have not made any comment on Euro, as the expected dip has occured profit should be taken around 1.3380-90 zones. Next level to watch is 1.3340-50, should hold or if breaks could see tset of 1.3320-25 zones……..Cheers
 3:02 PM  GOLD @ $ 1273 = take profit around $ 1271-73. However, break of $ 1269-70 will encourge for deeper fall……………
3:04 PM  Ok pals cheers until tomorrow……
Take care

DAILY COMMENTARY

In the absence of major economic data market is trying to find reason to trade. Yet again, today there is no major US economic data except for the Mortgage for Bankers Association mortgage applications data , which is not the market driver.

Few of the FED officials spoke on economy and they tried to maintain a balance on tapering talk by preparing for Fed tapering, which was shift on their stance as they did not sound Dovish. But they failed to get attention, as market is now focused on Yellens nomination and her speech due tomorrow in front of the Banking Senate Committee, which is the most talked subject that how she will present herself and her views on economy in front of the Committee.
US Dollar is making gains against almost everything and the pressure due to withdrawal of Fed stimulus package is visible. Gold is on the decline fearing pullback of funds, oil is down as scaling down by Fed will have an impact on speculative oil trades , although higher oil production could be added factor. Similarly currencies of emerging economies too are under pressure.
Meanwhile, Japanese currency found support around 99.80 and has frequently struggled around 100 levels due to lack of continuation of promised stimulus support from Abe’s government. Rising US yield and Japanese stocks are two other factors that does not help Japanese currency. Similarly Pound Sterling got clobbered due to weak inflation report that had slowed down earlier interest hike expectation. Weak jobs report could add more woes for GBP that room for more losses.
But Euro is one currency that has moved against all odds. This could be due demand from global Central Banks and investors for Euro, as the currency flow suggest that they are still good buyer of currency. However, despite yesterday’s ECB official Asmussen press release that ECB is not ruling out negative rates.
I think the statement clearly suggest that ECB does not have liking for strong Euro that hurts its exports and encourages import. Talks by ECB official to push inflation higher and negative deposit rate does not support currency and hence the European currency still has enough room for correction. One thing that can go against the Buck is possibility of uncertainty that can be caused by US Budget negotiation, which is due to start soon.

Twitter @asadcmka………

GMT 3:24 – GOLD @ 1269.50 = In Asia and early Europe gold is likely to hold around $ 1266-68 levels for a move towards $ 1273-75. Beyond that selling is preferred around $ 1276-80 zones, as should cap below $ 1286 for a move down towards $ 1260-62 zones. Further drop in coming days is intact.
GMT 3:29 – EURO @ 1.3446 = Euro could make a move towards 1.3470-80 zones and is likely to exhaust, but needs to break 1.3405 for a test of 1.3380. Upside break of 1.3525-50 in a bigger scenario could be threatening.
GMT 3:33 – GBP @ 1.5890 = Up move should exhaust around 1.5930-50 zones, if seen top should be picked to sell. Only break of 1.5998 will be threatening, as fall below 1.5840 will exert pressure for test a of 1.5800-10 zones.
GMT 3:36 – JPY 99.44 = There is no major change in view, as 99.80-00 poses big challenge. While 99.10 is the resistance level and only break risk for test of 98.70-80. However next support is around 100.25-30.
GMT 3:41 – AUD @ 0.9306 = As long as 0.9350-60 remains capped, Aussie will gradually drift down. Break of 0.9280 will open gates for 0.9240-50 or else 0.9380. Trading activity is expect5ed in narrow band.

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