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Threat of ECB Rate Cut Looms – Nov 01

November 1, 2013
It seems that the market is now mentally prepared for reduction in FED’s asset purchase, amount and the timing of tapering does not matter anymore, as it now looks a done deal. This is probably the final conclusion after going through the policy statement that I mentioned in my yesterday’s post that the language used is clearly less Dovish with a note of optimism, which increases the possibility to reduce the bond purchase amount in near-term. Price pressure in Gold, 10-year US Bond yield and equity clearly indicates the trend.
After the release of MPS, market will now be more keen to listen to FED official speeches for clues on tapering. More importantly the release of US economic data should play bigger role in helping to determine the trend. Though it is priced in that October economic numbers will be distorted due to government shutdown that was caused due to disagreement on debt issue. Release of October economic numbers could be confusing as quite a few events are not registered, but history suggest that November economic data is often encouraging that should give boost to the sentiment.
Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, excessive downside move in Euro was witnessed due to change in sentiment, as currency dealers suspect that ECB may have to adopt for even more softer stance and may choose for a quick rate cut to support regions economy to push growth higher and create more jobs opportunities, which is at a record high. Release of low inflation numbers further supports argument of ECB rate cut.

Twitter @asadcmka

GMT 2:56 – GOLD @ $ 1324 = Pressure on gold to continue and is likely to stay below $ 1328-30 levels for test and break of $ 1312-14 zones. Fall below $ 1303 will encourage for a sharp drop towards $ 1285-90 zone or else $ 1338-40.
GMT 3:05 – EURO @ 1.3555 =  Euro is likely to hold below 1.3580-90 levels and should not surpass 1.3625 for a move towards support levels 1.3505-10 zones. However, support levels may hold for mild correction. If breaks, risk for more downside will increase to test 1.3450.
GMT 3:12 – GBP 1.6030 = There are few risk for sharp move and Cable could be vulnerable. We may see GBP holding above 1.5970-75 levels and needs to break 1.6080 for further gains. However, break of support levels risk for a test of 1.5920-30 zones.
GMT 3:18 – JPY @ 98.22 = Japanese currency is a sell as long as 97.75 holds for a move towards 98.60-70 zones. But needs to break for 99.25 or 99.75 or else it will test 97.40-50 zones.
GMT 3:22 – AUD @ 0.9474 = I am expecting minor correction but needs to break 0.9498 for a test of 0.9525-30 zones or else break of 0.9450 will see fall extending towards 0.9420-30 zones.

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Inter – action with my Subscribers Today ………..

 8:13 AM – GBP @ 1.5998 = Suggest taking profit around 1.5985-95………..

8:14 AM – Gold break o $ 1318-20 will encourage foe mose losses………. barrier $ 1330.
8:50 AM – GOLD @ $ 1322 = Pick top and Sell around $ 1322-24. Stops $ 1226………
 9:37 AM – Euro @ 1.3508 = Book your profit around 1.3502-08 & wait for next post………Cheers
 9:39 AM  – sir view on cable same after data!!
9:40 AM  –  Yes, View remains unchanged, buy around suggested levels……….
10:20 AM  – GBP @ 1.5992 = The fall could be deeper unless move beyond 1.6030. if Cable could breaks 1.5950-60, we could see test of 1.5920-30.
Therefore Buying is not recomended…………………
10:43 AM  –  GOLD @ $ 1315 = Book your profit around $ 1313-15………………Cheers
 12:44 PM   – sir any levels for buying gold??
 1:01 PM   – GOLD @ $ 1315 = Gold may hold around $ 1317-20 levels for another dips to test $ 1308 -11 area. Break of $ 1325 delays downmove.
 1:16 PM  – JPY @ 98.42 = Book your profit around 98.42-48………..Cheers
 2:02 PM  – GOLD @ $ 1309 = Do book your profit around $ 1306-09…………Cheers
 2:03 PM  –  GBP @ 1.5942 = book your profit around 1.5935-42…cheers
 2:06 PM  – Close to bottom around = Euro 1.3465-70 – GBP 1.5920-30
Gold $ 1302 crucial
2:24 PM  – Hi Sir,
i was coming short from 2 days and closed all now
Good WIN
Thanks like always
2:28 PM  – Yes, you religiously follow my me and this one of the reason that you have made tones of money, which no one knows about your trades.
I am glad for you. My best wishes to you and others as well.
Thanks for appreciating, as always……………..
3:03 PM  – Ok pals, end of another great week.
Enjoy your weekend……………….

 

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