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Watch Out US Dollar Could Correct – Oct 25

October 25, 2013
Sentiment was mixed on Thursday, as tighter liquidity condition in China was painful for most of the the Asian stock market. Though better HSBC manufacturing purchase index data provided some relief improving overall market opinion and hinting revival of Chinese economy. It did help to halt Aussie slide, which made gains, but the rise fizzed out as Australian economy is too dependent on China. Market will once again watch liquidity condition in China, as continued tighter condition will have adverse impact on the economy.
While, European data was disappointing after the release of PMI numbers which gave mixed signal. France Europe’s second largest economy is not keeping pace with Germany and is constantly struggling. Although, news from Spain is encouraging as the economy escaped recession this time, but consistency in Euro region is key to stability.
Economic data from USA is once again providing mixed signal and recent shutdown event will cause more confusion as economics numbers are expected to deteriorate and may not give true picture. Market is more keen to know about FED’s scaling down plan, which should be dominating factor and will be discussed at length/often.
However, today data from across the the globe will be of key relevance, Germany will release IFO, from UK GDP could be trend provider for the British currency and release of notorious Durable good and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index from USA could drive some trading activity in the market.

Twitter @asadcmka


GMT 1:28 – GOLD @ $ 1344 = Support $ 1336-38 is the key, which could hold but gold needs to break $ 13348-50 to enter $ 1353-55 zones or else $ 1327.

GMT EURO 1:33 – @ 1.3793 = Euro has a strong barrier around 1.3825-30 only break would encourage for 1.3865. However, I do see risk that failure to break the barrier would challenge 1.3750-60 zone and fall could extend up to 1.3715-20 zones.
GMT 1:39 – GBP @ 1.6194 = Cable needs to surpass 1.6250-60 on break of 1.6230 or else I see risk for correction break of 1.6140 should pave way for test of 1.6050-80 zones.
GMT 1:43 – JPY 97.30 = Japanese currency needs to fall below 97.90 or else a move beyond 97.05 will encourage for test 97.60-70 zones. Break risk for more gains for JPY.
GMT AUD 1:45 – @ 0.9597 = Suspect Aussie could make gains beyond 0.9640-50 zones or else would challenge 0.9680-90. However, key is 0.9540-50 if breaks 0.9510 will be challenged.
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