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Nervousness in Market to Prevail – Oct 03

October 3, 2013
As the fiscal battle is inching towards October 17, the day it it likely to hit the US Debt Ceiling Limit, market is gradually slipping down. Stocks are off, US Dollar is loosing its sheen and gold despite fearing liquidity squeeze due to tapering is trying to make a comeback, but often finds sellers. The trend may continue if the political deadlock lingers on because of fear of default, which should and may not happen.
While, ECB President after the announcement of holding rates in his press appearance looked less concerned about the region’s economy, though cautious in choosing his words almost repeated what he said in his last address to the press. I have a feeling that his comforting factor was because of Berlusconi’s sudden U-Turn deciding to vote in favor of Letta scheduled for Friday that helped in survival of Italian government, as the announcement came almost at the time of Draghi’s speech.
US Dollar that was fighting against all odds paved way for Euro to climb. USD got further beating after the drop in ADP employment data, as this was an important job indicator because of possible scraping of US employment, which is scheduled this Friday. Such announcement could will surely pull US Dollar down. JPY, GBP, AUD & Gold were the other beneficiaries. However, today’s data release from Europe and USA may provide some trading opportunity.

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GMT 2:58 – EURO @ 1.3609 = We have entered into a new zone, but see top round 1.3630-40 for a pullback towards 1.3585-90, break may give some more space to test 1.3565-70 levels or else 1.3662.

GMT 3:11 – GBP @ 1.6232 = Cable will struggle to surpass 1.6250-60 levels, only break would see a possible small move towards 1.6280-90 before exhausting. However needs to fall below 1.6190 for test of 1.16160-65 zones.
GMT 3:19 – GOLD @ $ 1312 = Gold still looks a good sell around $ 1318-20, any up move should either fizzle out around $ 1326 or should exhaust around $ 1330-32 levels. See risk for drop and break of $ 1306-07 levels for $ 1297-00 and do not out further fall.
GMT 3:28 – JPY @ 97.71 = JPY needs to surpass 98.30 for more losses, which looks difficult as 98.10 may be tough to crack. See risk for another attack and possible break of 97.20 for 96.70-80 this week.
GMT 3:31 – AUD @ 0.9388 = Only downside break of 0.9330-40 zones risk for a test of 0.9310 levels, as Aussie looks good for a test of 0.9420 before making an attempt towards 0.9445-50 levels.


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