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Economic Data Key to Next Market Move – Sept 25

September 25, 2013
FED  officials are busy  making  statements  according to  their understanding about US  economy, but so far the speeches have  not been  powerful enough to  influence the  market because ultimately  it is the  final vote  on  decision making that matters. The mood is mix, as market is trying to gather the trend after mixture  of good and poor economic  data, as the  confidence level of US Consumer in  September was  disappointing. Release  of  of S&P Case  Shiller suggest  that  housing  demand could  not attain  satisfactory level, but was supported by strong rise in housing prices.
Similarly Europe too is gradually slowing down. Recent release of German economic data does not bode well, as signs are becoming evident that the pace of growth is slowing down, this is what yesterday’s release of German IFO data is depicting. Draghi a day earlier has already shown his reservations about growth prospect in the Euro region signaling that ECB is prepared to take more monetary measures to increase the pace of growth.
Meanwhile, FED in its recent policy stance emphasised on economic data, which means today’s release of Durable Goods Data though notorious and New Home Sales will provide direction about the latest trend of US Economy. But prior to that Germany’s Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey an indicator that measure’s the confidence level about the economic activity will be keenly watched.

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GMT 3:15 – GOLD @ $ 1324.50 = Likely to hold around $ 1317-19 in Asia & early Europe for a move towards $ 1328-30. break will encourage move extending towards $ 1333 or else $ 1310.
GMT 3:21 -EURO @ 1.3472 = Euro may struggle to make gains beyond 1.3480-90 zones for a a dip break of 1.3450 will open gates for a test of 1.3430-35 levels, 1.3410 should hold or else on the up 1.3515.
GMT 3:24 – GBP @ 1.5985 = As long as Cable holds below 1.6025 dip to test 1.5955-60 zones possible, break will threaten to test 1.5930 or else test of 1.6050-60 zones.
GMT 3:27 – JPY @ 98.66 = Yen will make further gains if holds below 99 for 98.30, break risk for test of 98.10-15 levels or else 99.20
GMT 3:31 – AUD @ 0.9377 = surely loosing upside momentum may hold around or below 0.9420 for a dip to test 0.9340-50, if breaks, possibly 0.9310-20 or else 0.9440-50 before down again.

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