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Syrian Factor Pushing Oil and Gold Prices Higher, Stocks Lower – Sept 4

September 4, 2013
Strong ISM data is a sign of strong economic activity in the manufacturing sector that further strengthen belief that the growth pace of US economy recovery is at a desired level. I think today’s release of Trade balance can add to the ongoing momentum, if exports can give hint of better economic performance with no surprises in the import column. However, it is FED Beige Book announcement that could set the mood as all 12 Fed Reserves District gathers information of the overall economic growth from experts and key business contacts.
Number of FED officials are due to speak before the next monetary policy announcement, but their speeches should not be of great importance because as the experience suggest that it does not give real hint about the coming move. Firstly because it is their personal view and they will not share with the market about their final thoughts that will only be discussed during FED gathering. Secondly, its is well known that the opinion is always divided when it reaches the final stage and the real outcome will only be known after the final gathering.
Though there is no change in sentiment due to stable economic condition, it is the uncertain Syrian situation, which is the cause of concern that has distorted the real picture of financial market that has pushed oil and gold prices higher, while it had dented the stock market. But potentially any news relating to Syria can rattle the market that could result increase in volatility.
GMT 2:58 – GOLD @ $ 1413 = Unless there is price distortion due to to external factors, I do not see Gold moving beyond $ 1418-20 levels for a drop. Break of $ 1404 is required for a drop towards $ 1396 and would watch for break $ 1380-85 levels before Friday’s non-farm payroll. On the upside watch for $ 1430-35 levels.

GMT 3:05 EURO @ 1.3166 = I am expecting Euro to hold around 1.3186 for move down top test and break 1.3145 for test of 1.3115-20 levels. Upside break risks for 1.3215.
GMT 3:11 – GBP @ 1.5561 = Likely to find support around 1.5530-40, which is preferred buying levels, as 1.5510 should not surrender for test of 1.5580-90 zones.
GMT 3:16 – JPY @ 99.56 = Japanese currency will give tough tough resistance around 99.80-90 levels unless breaks, risk for test of 99.25 or possibly 99.10. On the up watch 100.20 closely.
GMT 3:19 –  AUD @ 0.9095 = Base has formed around 0.9050 and the current Aussie rally could potentially test 0.9125-30 before easing and is unlikely to surpass 0.9170. Fall below support risk for more losses.

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