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Another Dull Trading Day Ahead – Aug 20

August 20, 2013
On Monday, market was reluctant to make a big moves in the absence of data release, as they have been waiting for Wednesday’s FOMC FED minutes. There are quite a few tapering supporter and market is more keen to see that if the release of minutes adds more names joining the bandwagon or not. The unrest and weakening of equity and bond market now surely tilts towards FED pause. US 10-year bond yield now close to 3 pct after hitting 2.89 pct yesterday is surely matter of big concern. Anything beyond 3 pct will unsettle currencies and  global stock market that may support gold and USD would be ultimate beneficiary due to asset sale.
However, since gold is now close $ 1400 levels it is a risky proposition to buy around or beyond $ 1400, as risk of sharp sell off is a big possibility if FED decides to scale down its asset purchase plan. Furthermore, if 10-year US bond yield surges towards 3 pct mark, keep an eye of Japanese Yen, which is likely to take beating, but I would expect yield to recover quickly and that should provide opportunity to buy cheap JPY, which should not surpass 99.50 levels.
We are heading for eventful next few weeks because apart from mid-September monetary policy to be announced by FED that will be followed by German election on September 22 , which I mentioned in my yesterday’s weekly post is another big event in the pipeline, but for now trading will remain within a narrow band, as there is enough reason to move the currencies either way.

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GMT 2:56 – EURO @ 1.3337 = We are in the middle of the range, as I do not see any reason to move beyond 1.3290 and 1.3390 range. We could see a dip before Euro making minor gains that could be corrective rally. However, weakness of European market would risk for more losses for Euro towards 1.3240.
GMT 3:02 – GBP @ 1.5649 = Cable has support around 1.5620-30 zones should hold for a move towards 1.5680-90 or else 1.5590 before up again.
GMT 3:06 – JPY @ 97.70 = Only break of 97.45-50 would see move extending towards 97.20-25, which is not a favoured move. But needs to break 97.98 for a test of 98.20-40 zones.
GMT 3:10 – AUD @ 0.9084 = Aussie may struggle to move beyond 0.9180 and may exhaust around 0.9125 for a test of 0.9025-30 or possibly 0.8980.
GMT 3:21 – GOLD @ $ 1366.50 = As long as $ 1370-72 holds gold is likely to test $ 1358-60 zones, break will encourage for a test of $ 1355. Move beyond upside levels risks for test of $ 1376-78 zones.

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5:49 AM    GOLD @ $ 1355 – Book your profit around $ 1353-=55 Cheers…………
5:50 AM     GOLD @ $ 1355 – Go long around $ 1353-55. Stops $ 1348……………
5:55 AM      JPY @ 97.30 = Keep a close watch on Yen, 97.20-25 is the selling area for the Japanese currency though there is minor risk for a test of 97.05 but may bounce back quickly………
6:34 AM     Ok, if you are long gold do apply Stops if $ 1348 breals……..Cheers
6:35 AM      Euro no change in view looking for adip……………..
7:14 AM      GBP @ 1.5635 = Cable could dip down to 1.5610-15…………
7:22 AM      sir shall go long aud at 0.9035??
7:37 AM      AUD @ 0.9025 = Book your profit around 0.9015-25………..Cheers
 7:42 AM     sir about gold
 7:43 AM     Either book your profit or wait for my post. You have to decide that…
8:13 AM      GOLD @ $ 1362 = Book your profit around $ 1362-65 zones……Cheers
9:23 AM      Afternoon Sir ,    EURO morning max range is Active. Short here or wait for more gains?   Thanks
9:24 AM      Slim chance to test
1.3410…….   Gold around $ 1370-72………
12:28 PM     GOLD @ $ 13721 = book profit around $ 1371-73 and go short around $ 1375-78 Stops $ 1385………….
12:30 PM     EURO @ 1.3415 = sell around 1.3415-25 Stops 1.3460……
12:31 PM    GBP @ 1.5688 = bok your profit if short and sell around 1.5690-00 Stops 1.5730………
12:32 PM       Aud @ 0.9075 – sell around 0.9090-00. stops -0.9140………….
12:42 PM     GOLD @ $ 1368.30 = if holds $ 1364 could re-test $ 1372-75 zones……..
1:01 PM        GOLD @ $ 1366 = buy Stops $ 1363…………….
2:05 PM        GOLD @ $ 1373 = book your profit around $ 1373-75……….Cheers
 2:08 PM       GOLD @ $ 1375 = sell around $ 1375-78. stops $ 13863…………..
2:09 PM        Stops $ 13823…….
 2:27 PM       GOLD @ $ 1373.50 = suggest squaring around currenct levels as see risk for another upside attack possibly beyond $ 1380 if $ 1368-70 holds….
3:06 PM       Ok pals, another excellent day………..  Recomended positions GBP – EURO – AUD & JPY are all within managable range with monor profits.
Suggest squaring or do book 30-50 pip profit. But do apply Stops if hit…….
Cheers until tomorrow…………..

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