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Economic Data to Provide More Clarity – Aug 14

August 14, 2013

ZEW, the German economic sentiment indicator surged to 42 points showing confidence in economy indicating that the domestic demand is improving, but it did not help the European currency to gain, as US retail sales edged up for 4th consecutive month, though not meeting market expectation, as auto sales was a bit slow. Sentiment about the US economic performance is still positive, hinting that consumers are not hesitating to spend. Previous months retail sales numbers that was revised upwards was also helpful. Surge of US 10-year bond yield to 2.71 pct endorses market view that US economy is on the up trend.
On of the FED non voting official President of FED Atlanta confused the market with his statement on tapering, as he thinks that economy required consistent growth to declare end quantitative easing in September, but is of view that FED can announce slowing down the pace of its asset purchase. I think this should be the proper way of doing it because gradual reduction of asset purchase will give time and space to the market to adjust accordingly. The bottom line is that keep a close watch on the US economic data that will lead to FED’s decision on tapering. So far the data looks reasonable and should not be discomforting for Fed to decide its next line of action.
Today, the release of German GDP data will not prove to be the game changer, but could be responsible to create minor volatility if it deviates form target. With the recent release of positive economic data from Germany, I will not be surprised to see bias on the upside as growth prospect looks better. However, any disappointment will spoil the sentiment and European currency may then suffer.
Twitter  @asadcmka
GMT 3:22 – EURO @ 1.3261 = Euro should hold around 1.3230-35 levels, but needs to break 1.3280-90 levels for a test and break of 1.3310 for 1.3325-30 zones or else a fall below 1.3210 will see a test if 1.3160-80 zones.
GMT 3:30 – GBP @ 1.5444 = Cable needs to penetrate beyond 1.5480-90 zones for test and break of 1.5525 for 1.5550-70 zones. On the down side break of 1.5380 would risk for losses extending towards 1.5340-50 zones.
GMT 3:35 – JPY @ 98.01 = The levels to watch is 97.80 if break risk for 97.50-60, but should hold for a move towards 98.25-30 zones, break could see the rally extending towards 98.55-60 zones.
GMT 3:38 – AUD @ 0.9103 = Should hold around 0.9070-80 levels for 0.9140-50, break would encourage for 0.9170 or else 0.9150.
GMT 3:48 – GOLD @ $ 1323.50 = Should hold below $ 1330 and needs to break $ 1310-12 levels for test and break of $ 1300 levels or risk for test of $ 1336-38 zones.
Inter-action with my…… Subscribers
8:33 AM    –  No change in view = but Cable needs to break upside levels for gains. Keep a watch on 1.5430-40 levels……
9:02 AM    –  hi sir,     If coming long in GOLD where to TP ?
 9:04 AM    –   GOLD @ $ 1327 = Take profit around $ 1327-79 levels and prefer short around $ 1330, as I am not expecting any big upside move……….
9:51 AM   –  EURO @ 1.3242 = If you are closely following my post, Euro did not break 1.3280-90 level and is down again. Do not buy around current levels, as it can test 1.3210-20 zones and is likley to hold below 1.3260 before NYK……………
9:53 AM   –    Morning view of EURO is still valid
 9:55 AM   –   please refresh page new post. Thanks
 9:59 AM  –    Very right sir,   that’s what i was thinking about too
Actually i am coming short in Euro and was think to TP.  Thanks
11:53 AM   –   YEN 98.25.  Any position to take here?   Thanks
11:58 AM   –  See more upside in Yen 98.45-50 or possibly 98.60-70. Should hold above 97.70-80, with prefeable buying around around 98.00-10……
12:33 PM   –   about gold follow moningpost
 12:35 PM   –   may hold $ 1320-22 for test of $ 1330-35 zones…………..
12:36 PM   –   Yen could test 97.80-90 levels………
12:39 PM   –   GOLD @ $ 1325 = buying is not favoured, as I would prefer to pcik top to sell gold………..
12:41 PM   –  about JPY, buying of Yen is prefered choice, as I would rather wait to sell Yen around 97.80’s…………
1:11 PM –    sir what about aud now??
 1:12 PM   –   Book profit around 0.9135-45 levels…………….Cheers
 1:43 PM   –   sir,  1.5525 broke.    Wait to TP or hold ?
1:55 PM  –   short GOLD here ? 1327
 1:57 PM  –   I think Cable should exhaust around 1.5535-45 levels. Suggest taking profit shoudl be taken so that it can be bought on dip………………….
2:00 PM   –   Gold @ $ 1327 = I will not be surprised to see gold getting close to $ 1330. Probably $ 1328-30 would be a better to escape from stretch……… Watch $ 1335-37 if up move occurs……….
2:30 PM   –   GOLD @ $ 1333.50 = This why I always say, do not force me to give a view. Instead, wait for my post, you will mostly find it beneficial………………….
Test of $ 1335-37 looks a good possibilty !
2:34 PM   –   I didn’t enter in GOLD trade sir because u mentioned 1335-37 possibility
 2:38 PM   –   Good thing about your trading style is that you have good ability to graps my post and this is why you do well.   When I am frequently or in a dull market asked a trading level. I have to respond on most occasions, though at tiomes I know that I should keep mum.  But may reflect my bad behaviorr, so i have to answer most of the time…….
2:59 PM    Ok pals, end of another excellent day………………..
Cheers until tomorrow…………………

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