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China & Europe is still a Concerning Factor – July 24

July 24, 2013
Interaction with my Subscribers during the day…………
7:36 AM   sir shall go short gold at 1344??
 7:38 AM   wiat for test of 1.3270-80………..levels
 7:47 AM   AUD @ 0.9228 = Book your profit around 0.9222-28……………Cheers
8:18 AM   EURO @ 1.3235 = European data have ben good. I am expecting 1.3190-00 to hold until NYl and could test 1.326o-70 zones………
 10:58 AM   sir gold shorted at 1344.50 with stops 1349.. is it ok?
11:22 AM   pd, book profit aroudn $ 1338-40…………..
 12:22 PM   next in gold do u see break of 35 n 30
12:23 PM   you know, NYK is always different and crazy market. You never know it goes to $ 1355 and then falls below $ 1330-35……….
12:25 PM   GOLD @ $ 1338 =Suggest Book you profit around $ 1336-38.Cheers
12:47 PM  GBP @ 1.5326 = Book your profit around 1.5320-26..Cheers
12:48 PM  JPY @ 100.32 = Book your profit around 100.32-38…..Cheers
12:56 PM  sir shall go long euro now??
12:58 PM   as you wish………………..
1:11 PM    USD will make some more gains…….
Gold @ 1337 = could test $ 1327-30 & is likley to hold below $ 1344.
 1:38 PM  JPY @ 100.32 = US 10-year bond yield is sharply up. Could test 100.50-60 area is yeas does not recover………….
2:14 PM  Ok pals, end of another excellent day……………….
Cheers until tomorrow…………………………..
2:15 PM  sir sold gold where should book profit ?
2:16 PM   book around $ 1330……………….. 

COMMENTARY
Normally US economic data such as Richmond FED Manufacturing Index does not make much impact in the market, but in the absence of any major news event index plunging to Negative 11 against expectation of + 9 is the biggest miss in 7-years, as new orders fell. This was mainly caused due to drop in big ticket items and and low shoppers turn out that hits retail sales business. Traders look for reasons to move the market. Today’s New Home Sales data will more clue about spending by home buyers on furnishing and home financing. Earlier US May house price index showed a disappointing reading of 0.7 pct versus expectation of 0.8 pct.
While, recently market has been concentrating on economic events in USA, Europe could once gain come into limelight, as there is long list of data due to the released. However, Europe is still faced with numerous problems, as Greece was notified that it cannot receive next tranche of its bailout funding, since it failed to comply with the reform list. Interestingly, this time its other way round as European Commission (EC) notified Germany that it cannot confirm that if Greece has met all 22 of its demand required to meet the funding available, as they could confirm having inspected 17 only of the 22.
The big question is that then why is Greece quiet or why  should Greece be penalized if it is not Greece’s fault. I think this could be smart play by the European policy makers to avoid unrest, as Portugal is already an unsettled issue, which is lingering on. Spain’s PM will also be appearing in front of its Parliament to face question over corruption scandal, which could be exciting and exert pressure on European currency if opposition threatens no confidence vote.
Another area to note is US treasury auction. Yesterday in US session we saw US Treasury yields surging by 3-4 basis point, as market will watching next 2-days auction. Foreign participation will be the key to watch.
Meanwhile, its a bad start to the day as Australian CPI dropped hinting possibility of rate cut. Furthermore, China’s flash manufacturing PMI dropping down to 47.7 against expectation of 48.5 versus 48.2 in May, does not bode well for the global economy as it heavily rely on Asian growth and attaining growth level of 7 pct looks challenging.
Today….Gold Soft & US Dollar will gain strength.

Currency & Gold Update Later………… 

GMT 2:10 – EURO @ 1.3209 = I see Euro heavy around 1.3230-50 zones and needs to break 1.3285 levels for further gains. Risk for fall could increase if 1.3150-60 surrender for a move towards 1.3095.
GMT 2:18 – GBP @ 1.5360 = Cable may struggle to move beyond 1.5390 and break would give advantage for of another 20-25 pip up move before down again as see risk for a test of 1.5315-20 zones. Or else 1.5440.
GMT 2:22  – AUD @ 0.9262 = Aussie should find cap around 0.9280-90 and needs to break 0.9220 for 0.9180 or else 0.9310.
GMT 2:30 – GOLD @ $ 1343.50 = Gold should hold around $ 1345-48 levels and only break would encourage for a move towards $ 1352-54 zones. However, today I would prefer picking the top to sell and watch $ 1335. Break risk for test of $ 1327-30 zones.
GMT 2:36 – JPY @ 99.75 = Break of 99.98 is required for a move towards 100.30-40 zones. However, push beyond 99.35-40 would risk for a test of 99.05-10 zones.
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