Skip to content
Tags

, , , ,

Gold To Remain Weak – Yen & GBP to Gain – July 16

July 16, 2013

Interaction with my Subscribers during the day…………

 

7:28 AM    GOLD @ $ 1285.90 = Wait for the sell signal……………….
7:32 AM    GOLD @ $ 1288 = Pick top to sell around $ 1290. Stops $ 1295…..
10:35 AM   Gold @ $ 1286.70 = I would still not recomend selling gold around $ 1290 suggested earlier because Indian Central Bank set a ceiling of 750 billion rupees ($12.6 billion) on the the amount that banks could borrow from its daily repurchase agreement window, and also raised the rate charged to meet lenders’ emergency funding needs to 10.25% from 8.25%.
This has given strenth to Indian Rupee and is Bullish news for gold. I will not be surprised to see gold suring towards $ 1295-98 zones if $ 1290-92 breaks………
So wait unless there is some clarity. I am expecting on the rise…………..
 10:38 AM   EURO @ 1.3122= Book your profit around 1.3122-30…..Cheers
10:39 AM   AUD @ 0.9235 = Book your profit around 0.9235-40………cheers
10:40 AM   JPY @ 99.30 = book your profit around 99.20-30
10:44 AM   GBP @ 1.5115 = Cable fall niceley after failig to break 1.5150 is Europe as per my moring post. If you went long around suggested levels, book your profit aroudn 1.5115-20………..Cheers
12:32 PM   Sell Gold around $ 1290-92 Stops $ 1298
Euro Sell around 1.3110-20 Stops 1.3150…………..
2:10 PM    Well, I would prefer sqauring Gold & Euro position after excellent another day.
Cheers until tomorrow………………………..

 

COMMENTARY

 

As market awaits Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday, there is lot of guess work going on about economic distortion by the Bears. Mixing poor Retail Sales numbers with 2nd quarter GDP does not make enough sense because retail sales is mildly down. Increase in payroll number does not mean/guarantee lavish or over consumer spending and if  2nd quarter GDP is below expectation, it should not be very surprising data because it will be the effect of past US economic performance caused by tax and sequester. Do not overlook New York Empire State Manufacturing Index data suggesting that after contracting last month manufacturing condition in the region has has shown improvement.

I feel pity for the bears trying to come up with all sorts of reasoning that could possibly delay tapering fearing more bashing if Fed decides to scale down its asset purchase. I think with ongoing market mood, today’s CPI could bring more excitement as any increase in inflationary pressure could see market tilt towards reduction in Fed bond buying plan and softer data should give more hope to the Doves.
I am expecting very similar to Monday’s move in currencies. We did see Yen weakening that was short lived and unlikely to beyond yesterday’s low. Euro need to surpass 1.3120 for more gains and Cable has bias upside as long as 1.5010-20 holds.

EURO @ 1.3070 = I am expecting 1.3020 to hold, but needs to break 1.3098 for a test of 1.3120-30 zones and only break would encourage for 1.3150-60 Or else 1.2975.
GBP 1.5111 = Cable is likely to stay strong and buying of dips is expected around 1.5060-70 zones. Watch for break of 1.5150-55 that would encourage for 1.5180, failure to push beyond in Europe could mean test of support levels, before up again, or else 1.5020
JPY @ 99.75 = Move beyond 100.10-20 looks difficult as see risk for test and break of 99.55 for a move towards 99.20-30 zones, or else 100.80.
AUD @ 0.9163 = Likely to have stronger tone. 0.9120 should hold for 0.9210, I will not be surprised to see more gains, or else 0.9080.
GOLD @ $ 1281.60 = Should hold below $ 1285-86 for a move towards $ 1272-74, Break will encourage for $ 1268 or else upside break could see possible test of $ 1288-90 levels.

 Twitter  @ asadcmka ……………..

Advertisements
Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: