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Gold & Euro to gain – GBP Soft & Yen to Weaken after gain – July 2

July 2, 2013
Interaction with my Subscribers during the day…………
10:16 AM   sir what about gold now should buy again on dip!!
10:21 AM    we have already seen the expected upmove. Now its time for NYK to enter. Levels to wwatch us $ 1257 & $ 1253 if $ 1265 hods……………..
10:25 AM   sir shall go long euro at 1.3025??
10:33 AM    View on Euro is unchanged……………………
10:54 AM    sir,  Whats your call for AUD after RBA Interest Rate Decision ?Thanks
11:02 AM    AUD will be looking for reason for some upside correction, but ovrall selling will be seen at higher levels becuase Australian economy still faces quite a few challenges and remains suspect to woresening Chinese economic condition…………..
 12:32 PM    GBP @ 1.5146 = book your profit around 1.5140-46 and gold long around 1.5120-30 zones Stops 1.5080.
12:41 PM    JPY @ 100.30 = Book your profit around 100.35-40…………….. 2:12 PM    GOLD @ $ 1248 = Needs to clear $ 1242-44 for $ 1231-33………Or esle $ 1255
2:21 PM   sir ibought euro at 1.30 where should take profit ?
2:24 PM   EURO @ 1.3016 = Needs to clear 1.3030-35 for 1.3055 or esle another test of 1.2985-90……
2:50 PM    what next in gold above 50 selling is preefered
 2:54 PM    1252 – 1245 & then 1260 if 1242 holds
 3:05 PM    Ok pals, another excellent day and good start to the new month……………..
Cheers until tomorrow…………………

Commentary
To some extent the overall European zones Purchasing Managers Index may have given sigh of relief after hitting 16-month high of 48.8, Spain’s PMI hitting 50 should be taken positive after so many negatives, but Germany’s PMI dropping down to 48.6 is not good news, which is the regions growth engine. There is nothing much to celebrate about the PMI number, which is still below 50, a benchmark considered for growth purpose. Euro regions unemployment rising to 12.1 pct does not bode well suggesting economy is still contracting with unemployment rate of over 26 pct in Spain and Greece is still a matter of grave concern and a big challenge for European policy makers. Though higher Euro zone’s PMI may have helped Euro from further easing.
 
Meanwhile, release of UK economic data may have welcomed its new boss Mark Carney with some good news, but signs of economic recovery did not help Pound Sterling to recover. I think some of the recently released UK economic data have been encouraging suggesting reasonable growth in manufacturing sector. Increase in mortgage approval is a healthy sign for the UK housing market, which is one of the leading indicator for housing market. But more importantly market may be patiently waiting to hear from BOE new Governor’s view on policy stance, as further liquidity injection to stimulate economy looks difficult, since the economy is responding well to the measures taken so far. 
 
Australian policy decision on rates is due in couple of hours time. There is a split view on rate, but any cut today will increase the probability of another rate cut in future suggesting Australian economy could be facing tougher time, although easing of Australian Dollar should be helpful to the economy that already faces two challenges in export and tourism sector. However, Chinese slowdown is surely adding to the economic misery.
Twitter for Currencies & Gold  Updates   @asadcmka
Euro @ 1.3058 = Bias to remain mildly on the upside, as 1.3010-15 levels should hold, probably 1.3025 may not surrender, but needs to clear 1.3090-95 for test of 1.3115-20 zones. Or else 1.2985.
GBP @ 1.5212 = Initially may struggle to move upwards and see risk for a drop towards 1.5175, which could extend up to 1.5135-40 zones before recovering. Break of 1.5260-65 is required to challenge 1.5295-00.
JPY @ 99.56 = Saw a perfect move to hit target 99.85, but failed to push beyond and now making small correction towards 99.35 before making another attempt towards 99.90 or 100.80. However, 99.05 should not surrender.
AUD @ 0.9218 = Unless break above 0.9270-80, risk is for a downside test of 0.9125 that could extend. However, upside break will pave way for test 0.9320-40 zones.
GOLD @ $ 1258 = Bias is on the upside for next two session. Should hold around $ 1248-50for upside break of and test of $ 1265-67 and this rally could extend up to $ 1270. Fall below $ 1244 sees more losses.
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