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Euro & Gold to fall after Small Up Move – June 25

June 25, 2013

Market is nervous and undecided after Bernanke’s bombshell that FED will be reducing the liquidity injection amount through its asset purchase program if job condition improves. Problem is that market is unable to digest the reality that FED can refrain from further injection and cannot support market forever. There is blood bath everywhere, as Asia took the lead with China’s stock market badly hit after sever liquidity squeez in its banking system and is faced with severe funding problem. Chinese Central Bank (PBOC) is playing a calculative move in providing liquidity that is causing difficulty for small size banks, as it has asked banks to manage liquidity. China’s banking system is thought to be over leveraged and it has a history of bad loans, as there are plenty of shadow banking cases (which  is common practice globally, basically its the activities involved outside the regular banking system).
While, Narayana Kocherlakota a non-voting member yesterday, stepped in to give some hope by saying that FED is not too concerned with the current market move, but I doubt that such statements have enough substance, as market will be more willing to hear from the voting members to have a real feel. More importantly market will be keenly watching release of US Economic data’s that should provide better direction and set the trend. Do keep a close watch on 10-year US bond that I have been telling you to follow since it has surpassed 2 pct yield. I would consider 2.50 pct yield as an important benchmark, global bond yield too are surging after FED FOMC. We could soon be heading for 3 pct yield if US 10-year Treasuries move beyond 2.75 pct, which is US Dollar pro.

GMT 1:56 – EURO @ 1.3118 =  = I am expecting Euro to hold 1.3080 in Europe, but may find top around 1.3160-80 zones. Only break will encourage for 1.3225. However, i am expecting fall later in day break of 1.3090 will encourage for a test of 1.3050 levels.
GMT 2:00 – GOLD @ $ 1286 = 
Only break of $ 1290-92 will encourage for a test of $ 1295-97 zones. However, strategy remains unchanged would pick top beyond $ 1290  to sell as break of $ 1275 will encourage for a fall towards $ 1260.
GMT 2:03  – GBP @ 1.5446 = 
Could be heavy around 1.5470-80 zones and may see a fall towards 1.5402. Break would encourage for 1.5360 or else 1.5520.
GMT 2:06 – JPY @ 97.96 = 
Needs to move beyond 98.30-40 for 98.70 or else we could possibly see test of 97.50 or 97.15.
GMT 2:08 – AUD @ 0.9260 =
 some more corrective move possible if 0.9295 breaks for test of 0.9320-30 zones or else 0.9210.

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Interaction with my Subscribers during the day…………

8:40 AM

sir short gold at 1287.. what should be stops??

8:42 AM   Next levls is $ 1293-95. Should Hold………..
 8:50 AM  Hi sir,  SELL yen here 97.15 ?  Thanks
8:51 AM   sir what about aud now??
8:56 AM   JPY @ 97.15 = Book your profit around current levels and Sell Jpy around 96.95 with STOPS 96.60……….
9:01 AM   AUD @ 0.9290 = The corrective move is occuring hope you have booked your profit around 0.9295………….
Strategy Unchanged = I would wait to pick top around my given level to sell Aussie with Stops 0.9270
10:02 AM   sir,
Euro Short @ 1.3144
Gbp short @ 1.5451
Gold short @ 1288.10
JPY SOLD @ 97.03
Where to TP
10:04 AM  Patience please…………………
12:32 PM   Next target if short take profit…………………
Euro @ 1.3070-80 –
GBP @ 1.5405-15 –
JPY @ 97.80 around
& GOLD @ $ 1275-78…..
Hi all, I would prefre reducing exposure
12:39 PM
Euro @ 1.3085   –  GBP @ 1.5425    – JPY @ 97.70 around  –GOLD @ $ 1279
Start booking your profit as I am expecting minor bounce back……….
1:32 PM   next gold should buy at these level for another upside
1:44 PM   nothing to suggest in gold right now……………
Wait for my next post………..
2:00 PM   Buy USD Sell Gold @ $ 1281-83……….
2:02 PM   Yen @ 97.80 could test 98.30-40 could test. 97.40 should holds 2:04 PM    EURO @ 1.3078 = Should hold below 1.3125 for 1.3020-.30
 2:16 PM   today possible 1260 gold
2:58 PM   Ok pals, end of another excellent day.
However, view is unchanged.
Squaring of all positio is preferred. If carrying positions do apply STOPs.
Cheers until tomorrow…………………




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