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Until next MPS US Economic Data should do all the Talking – June 20

June 20, 2013

Interaction with my Subscribers during the day…………

 7:22 AM  sir what is the next level to watch for gold??
7:48 AM  Gold will remain choppy and i will not be surprised to see break $ 1300
8:09 AM  sir,  YEN 98.20 TP here and again short around 97.80 ? Thanks
8:12 AM  Do take profit, but keep in mind US bond 10-year 2 2.38 yield made a big leap. I will not be surprised to see more losses in Yen……… Prefer to watch before next enrty…………
 9:38 AM  Sir, Any position to go long in gold today before USA?
9:42 AM  No ong in gold we could see further colapse if $ 1290 breaks for test of $ 1275. for upside I do not have a view…………
 9:44 AM
Great, So short position to hold till 1280-85

 9:45 AM  Lead a peaceful life. Did you sell I gave sigal at $ 1326 that $ 1300 could surrender today………
9:49 AM  coming short from long above 1326
9:54 AM  Then enjoy………………..
10:24 AM   GOLD @ $ 1288 = Book your profit around $ 1282-88…..Cheers
10:32 AM  EURO @ 1.3183 = Book your profit around 1.3173-83……Cheers
12:35 PM  sir what about gold after US data?
12:40 PM  GOLD @ $ 1301 = is Tata just like end of the season Bata………..
It may make small correction before selling emerges.
Both way volaitility is still a good possibility.
Ranging between $ 1265 – 1285 — $ 1310 -1330…….
12:41 PM  and what about aud?
12:52 PM   AUD @ 0.9214 = May struggle to move beyond 0.9250-70 for another downside move of 0.9150 and likey to test and break 0.9000 in coming days…………….
 1:01 PM   hold gold for 1265 today possible
1:04 PM   Not sure…………….of $ 1265 at the moment
1:20 PM  i m hold sell position at present wht to do hold or book means what to do u see in gold
1:25 PM  GOLD @ $ 1294 = Another important data Housing Sales is due in next 4-minutes. If this data is poor thne we may see small correction.
Since gold at the moment is holding $ 1290, I will not be surprised to a a move towards $ 1303-08.
However on dip $ 1275-80 is crucial level. I would not mind buying at the lowest level, as $ 50-70 correction cannot be overruled.
Today is tricky so plan out your starategy accordingly…………
1:26 PM   Please read Housing data is due in 40 minutes
 1:41 PM  sell gold again at 08
 2:07 PM   as us data shown its power now next in gold now see 65 same view before
3:01 PM   Ok pals, another calculated but excellent day……………
Cheers until tomorrow……………………

Commentary

I was never confused or double minded about US economic growth and my views got endorsed from FED. This is big news that FED Chairman Ben Bernanke is confident about the US economic recovery announcing FED’s decision to revise its unemployment rate to 6.5 pct by end of 2014 instead of 2015. So FED deciding to go on hold with a Bullish view on economy makes lot of sense, as it has clearly given time to the market to adjust/settle/decide accordingly. The message was surely/may have been conveyed to the G-8 finance minister that held a meeting in Ireland this week, as FED easing was part of their agenda.

Another important point that BEN clarified was about hike in US interest rates. There was a confusion, but now there is no confusion, as he made it absolutely clear that FED rate target is likely to stay for a considerable period after asset purchases are concluded and would be close to Zero until unemployment target rate of 6.5 pct and economic targets is achieved, It got further boost as 14 of the 15 FED members do not see hike until 2015. The statement also said inflation is not a threat. Though there can be a debate that with the expectation of fast pace of economic recovery how can one be sure of maintaining low inflation.
Interestingly, the tapering tool is in FED’s control, which will allow them to ascend/descend matching with the pace economic recovery, which in other words means that FED bond buying will be reduced in accordance with the economic performance. Firmer tone of FED chairman speaks in volume as traders/investors should not forget that Bernanke is considered a staunch Dove and hence the message is clear and loud.
I think globally, FED tapering will have negative impact for sometime until market has a clearer view because of fear of tighter liquidity conditions. Better US economic result will add more spark, as Ben added that it will allow FED to end its bond purchase program by mid of 2014.
We are already witnessing bad start to the day as HSBC China PMI figure is down to 48.3 versus 49.4, anything below 50 suggest economic slowdown, which means manufacturing is down and demand from abroad has fallen. The morning Australian Dollar is the first casualty as it is under pressure of a possible rate cut. Europe cannot afford poor data, as threat further easing in looming over its head. UK is already tilting towards easing stance and its new Governor Cannary will soon join BOE is considered a Dove. Japan has already announce ultra easing policy. Hence, there is a high probability that with the further strength of US economy gold and currencies will come under sever pressure.
Catch me on TWITTER for CURRENCIES & GOLD UPDATE…….   @asadcmka
GMT 3:18 – EURO @ 1.3270 = Any up move should e short lived. i am expecting Euro to hold around 1.3295-00 zones. But do not see move beyond 1.3360, as see risk for a fall. Break of 1.3205 will encourage=ge for a test of 1.3170.
GMT 3:25 – GBP @ 1.5459 = Cable will remain under pressure and is likely to hold around 1.5595-00, but needs to fall below 1.5380-90 levels for bigger losses or else 1.5530-40.
GMT 3:30 – JPY @ 96.71 = Move beyond 96.98 will encourage for test of 97.20-25 zones. However, break of 96.40 risk for a test of 96.10.
GMT 3:40 – AUD @ 0.9265 = Aussie bashing continues, but support 0.9200-10 should hold for a test of 0.9340-50 zones or else 0.9170-80.
GMT 3:41 GOLD @ $ 1347 = During the day gold should not surpass $ 1355-60. Break of $ 1332 will open gates for bigger fall.
In broader scenario, I would like to lower the top for Gold from $ 1405-10 to $ 1380-85.
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