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Market Focus will Shift Towards US Data – Yen Close to Bottom – June 13

June 13, 2013
Interaction with my Subscribers during the day…………
8:13 AM  Hi sir, MY BUY positions(95 to 97+) of YEN are in pending… close here or wait more for the drop 93.50 or more? Shorts of euro and GBP also.. waiting for your call to close. Thanks
8:16 AM  JP @ 94.10 = I would prefer closing the position because recovery of global stock market and data could see 150-200 pip move. If Yen makes further gains you will be well placed to short Japanese currency.
8:21 AM   i sold at 1.3380 where should book profit ?
9:20 AM  EURO @ 1.3343 = pd, Euro seem to have found strong support around 1.3335-40 zones, only break will see a dip towards 1.3320-25 or esle I see a possibility of Euro hovering around 1.3360-70 levels before NYK………………Cheers
11:39 AM   sir should go short australia ?
 11:47 AM   Perefer around 0.9590-00. Stops 0.9640
12:31 PM   Buy US Dollar………… Sell Gold………………
12:34 PM   GOLD @ $ 1384 = sell around $ 1384-86 Stops $ 1391…………
12:37 PM   EURO @ 1.3310 = Prefer selling around 1.3320-25 STOPS 1.3360…….for 1.3260-70…
12:40 PM  JPY @ 94.13 = Should hold around 93.85-90 for upside test of 94.50, break could see a test and break of 94.90
 1:30 PM   sir where to book profit in gold??
1:41 PM   sir what about gbp??
1:45 PM   GBP @ 1.5672 = No change in view as long as 1.5640 support holds……….
2:09 PM   sir i shorted at 1.5685.. shall close it??
2:29 PM   EURO @ 1.3283 = Book your profit around 1.3277-83………Cheers
2:43 PM   today you are betting on the wrong horse. This is because you want to trade in everyting product, which is humanly not possible. Try to re-orgainize yourself so that you concentrate on your position………
2:44 PM   GBP @ 1.5669 = Unless support 1.5650-55 breaks, risk for 1.5690 is possible………
2:45 PM   GOLD @ $ 1382.50 = Barrier is at $ 1377 that needs to break for more losses. I do see much beyond $ 1390……….
2:47 PM  JPY @ 94.34 = looks safe Sell around 94.10-15 as I do see break 93.70. However, still needs to move beyond 94.90 for 95.50, which is possible……..
3:00 PM  Ok Pals, it has been another great day………….
Cheers until tomorrow………………

COMMENTARY

In the absence of any major economic data release Japanese Yen continues its one sided journey making substantial gains overnight    and continued its journey as Japanese stocks suffered for yet another day. Market is still testing the nerves of BOJ after it failed meet its expectation of proving more stimulus. Earlier in the week despite US Treasury Yield surging Japanese currency is gaining, which is not the normal pattern. Yen Bulls did get the the boost after one of the Japanese official did not favour intervention to arrest gains. Technically, we are now getting close for 3-4 big figure rebound, but weakness of stock market is helping JPY to flex its muscles. So watch out and try to catch the move around 93.50.

While, German constitutional court are done with its 2-day hearing on ECB’s OMT plan, but ruling announcement will take time, probable another 3-months, so there was no impact in the market. Data released from Europe was as per expectation. Industrial production made minor recovery that helped European currency to further strength.
I am expecting some action in US session, as there is long list of economic data due to be released. After a quiet start to the week, jobless claims and retail sales data will will provide direction about the US economy.
Gold made gains as there is possible shift of investments from stocks, where as oil is soft and higher US Treasury yield suggesting tighter condition does not go along with gold. Improved US data today could hammer the Yellow metal. But if gold surges on weak data, I think it will provide another opportunity to gold on the rise. A good data today can bring shift in the sentiment tilting towards US Dollar

 Twitter          @asadcmka           for Currencies & Gold Update……..

GOLD @ $ 1393 = Overall Bearish view is intact. We could see Gold making some more gains and only break of $ 1399 would encourage for its leg of up move towards $ 1408-10, a move which is not favoured before US data. During the day, I a expecting gold to hold around $ 1395-06 and would prefer selling around those levels for $ 1383 or possible test of $ 1365-70. zones.

GMT 3:31  – EURO @ 1.3360 = I am expecting .3320-30 levels to hold for a test of 1.3390-00 zones. But may not hesitate to sell around 1.34 levels with STOPS 1.3430.
GMT 3:35 – JPY @ 94.70 = JPY gain is as per expectation but would watch 94.10-20 closely, as correction beyond 95.50 would risk for a test of 96.35 Or else 93.50.
GMT 3:39 – GBP 1.5686 = Needs to clear 1.5720-25 for 1.5765. However, risk for sharp drop exist. If moves higher pick top to sell. Break of 1.5590 will encourage for more losses. Prior to up move during the day, should hold around 1.5640 levels.
GMT 3:41 – AUD @ 0.9437 = Threat of more losses will increase if 0.9360-70 surrenders. However, a move beyond 0.9480-90 will encourage for a test of 0.9530-40 zones.
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