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Europeans are Confused – FED Officials Statement is just an Opinion – May 30

May 30, 2013
I think European policy makers are a bit confused about taking decision on current fiscal issues, probably aware of the nature of problem in the region. OECD is slashing Euro-regions growth forecast and fears that withdrawal/tapering of QE or monetary easing would put growth at huge risk, in other words OECD wants continuation of loose global monetary policy. After recent ECB policy announcement there is lot of talk about ECB considering negative deposit rates, as its next step to force banks to lend to small and medium size businesses to push growth higher that should also help to improve the job condition in the Euro-zone region. 
But there are quite a ECB members raising their voices against extraordinary loose policy as they do not feel comfortable. The problem is that Euro is used in 17-countries, but ever country has its own dynamics. Economic condition in Italy, Spain and Greece may differ, as they have problems such as Bank Capitalization, Deficit, Growth or Unemployment, but in Germany or Austria they do not have similar problem., so why would they become party, which does not suit their respective economies. However, this dispute is unavoidable and can only be resolved with an understanding, as long as the country wants to be part of 17-member that uses Euro or will have to decide to disassociates with the community, there is no second choice.  
Meanwhile in US, the debate on tapering is an ongoing subject until FED acts. Respective FED members speak on QE and have their own viewpoint about FED’s easing stance. Such discussions/speeches are routine affair as every Fed member that takes the podium has to speak and market reacts. But monetary policy decision is not made through speeches, it is based in economic performance and then each of the members have to cast their vote and its only one-vote that counts.
Therefore, today’s US jobless claims data will be of more relevance rather than all the talking. During NY session, quite a few economic data will be released that should provide some guidance about FED’s intention on its monetary policy stance and it will only be possible to have a clearer view when FED meets next month and come up with announcement. Rest is all guess work.
 
Twitter         @asadcmka                     for Currency &  Gold Updates
 
GMT 2:57 –  EURO = 1.2955 – Euro could make some more gains and is likely to hold 1.2920 in Asia and early Europe for test of 1.2995-05 zones. However, this upside rally should exhaust and 1.3050 should not surrender, as I am expecting a drop later in the day and downside break of 1.2930 will encourage for 1.2890.
GMT 3:08 – GOLD @ $ 1394.30 = There is risk for more upside as long as $ 1387 holds and break of $ 1399 could see a test of $ 1403, with minor chances to test $ 1410. Break of $ 1375-80 will resume downside move, as I remain bearish and would prefer to pick the top.
GMT 3:13 – GBP @ 1.5131 = Cable should exhaust around 1.5150-60 zones and is unlikely to make strides unless clears 1.5195 more importantly 1.5225 clearly. On the downside support is at 1.5050, but needs to fall below 1.5010 for more losses.
GMT 3:18 – JPY @ 101.19 = As long as 101.50 holds, Yen has potential for a fall towards 100.50. Break would encourage for 100.20. Or else  test of 101.80-90 levels.
GMT 3:22 – AUD 0.9647 = Aussies slid has slowed down but needs to clear 0.9720 or else break of 0.9610 risk for another test if 0.9570-80 zones.
 
 Interaction with my Subscribers during the day……………
 
5:37 AM  GOLD @ $ 1404 = Book your profit….Cheers
 5:43 AM  GBP @ 1.5178 = Book your profit and go short around 1.5185-95. STOPS 1.5230
5:47 AM  GOLD @ $ 1403.50 = Selling not recomended as lomg as $ 1395-97 holds. Could test $ 1409-12 zones. Wait to pick the top…..
 6:19 AM  sir stops for gold??
6:20 AM GOLD @ $ 1410 = Ok, book your profit & sell around $ 1412-14. Stops $ 1422…………….
7:52 AM  sir i haven’t shorted gold yet.. shall wait for new high or should go for short around 1408-10??
7:59 AM at times you have to a take decision because I cannot correct all the times. Yesterday you bought Aussie and did well.
So you dont have to wait all the time for my signal specially in a fast market and have to decide in seconds or you miss out the opportunity.
However, as the pace of upside is slowing down. Gold looks a sell around your level $ 1408-10……………Cheers
8:32 AM  sir where u seeing aud in coming days?? correction upto 0.98 or it will furher go down??
 8:37 AM  Difficult to make a comment. No more easing could push AUD towards 99, but hint of rate woud see another testof 0.95 zones………..
 9:17 AM  sir shorted gold at 1409.. what should be the stops??
 10:27 AM  sir , where to close GBP shorts ? Thanks
10:44 AM  GBP @ 1.5140 – Moeen, I was just wandering about the strategy. Eithet take profit around 1.5130-35 levels or @ 1.5085-90, which may not occure until NYK. But the do appy loss at your salling level…………….
11:36 AM  EURO @1.2958 = OK pals, hope you have booked your profit aropund 1.2995-05 and went short as per moring post.
Suggest taking profit aeround 1.2952-58….Cheers
11:38 AM  AUD @ 0.9597 = Book your profit around 0.9590-97..cheers
11:41 AM  GOLD @ $ 1397.50 = Curcial level is $ 1395-97. You can book your profit…………..Cheers
11:47 AM  JPY @ 101.73 = We are witnessing bounceback after perfect hit of my target 100.50. Now 101.80-90 is the crucial level, break risk for test of 102.25-30 or esle another move towards 101.20 and below……….
12:31 PM  Euro to test 1.3020  –  GBP 1.5180-90  –  GOLD $ 1415-12
 12:31 PM  BUY Yen @ 101.50 – Stops 101.85
 12:33 PM  GOLD @ #+$ 1405 = Prefer selling Gold. Look for top………
12:38 PM  sir perfer buying or selling gold ?
1:21 PM  GOLD @ $ 1412 = Book your profit around $ 1412-15……Cheers
1:23 PM  Prefered selling GOLD around $ 1420…………..
1:24 PM  EURO @ 1.3012 = Book your profit around 1.3012-18…..Cheer
1:28 PM  GBP @ 1.5180 = Book yopur profit around 1.51780-90……Cheers
1:30 PM  EURO @ 1.3042 = Sell Euro arounnd 1.3042-48 Stops 1.3090
1:31 PM  101.02 = Book your profit around 100.97-03………cheers
1:46 PM  sir,  Also tell TP levels please. Euro+GBP sold at top.  Thanks
1:51 PM  Patience, as good Pending Home Sale data due in 10- minutes can get you good profit. You may apply STOPS at your Selling level.
GOLD could dip below $ 1400 and may test %$ 1390-95….levels $ should not surpass $ 1418-20
1:57 PM  GOLD @ $ 1414 = sell around $ 1414-16 stops $ 1422
2:03 PM  Bad data if want square all positions……………..
2:39 PM  Gold & Currency Trend……………………..
I am expecting US Dollar to regains its lost strength and is likely to make 200–300 pip gains. 
Cabe is good sell around 1.5220-40 levels
GOLD again a good sell around $ 1425, but should hold below $ 1450 for $ 1330-50………..
Euro is sell around 1.3080 and shold hold below 1.32……………
3:01 PM  Ok pals, this was one of the best day……………………..
Cheers until Tomorrow……………………………………………….
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