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USD Bias upside – AUD Hits Weekly Target now Watch out – Prefer Sell @ $ 1390 – May 29

May 29, 2013
Release of economic data suggest that confidence in US economy is oozing, as consumers have been actively spending, most since February 2008. Overall sentiment for the economy remains positive, as housing market continues to perform well. Rise in US Treasury bond yields is another benchmark to counter check the US economic performance, as 10-years bond yield surged by 15 basis point and is at 13 month high at 2.16 pct. 
Meanwhile, demand for US Dollar is understandable with the release of positive indicators, US stocks too is back in good shape, while commodity is struggling, as it seems too dependent on China. European recession, uncertain financial market condition and now another ECB threatening factor of negative deposit rates, which will largely depend on economic performance makes European currency that has 2nd largest global commercial demand after USD, less attractive. 
In the absence of any major US data, I think the key today will be release of German jobs data and later release of German CPI data that will indicate household consumption, which is main indicator to measure inflation. Any major deviation either way could impact the market that could bring some spark in the foreign exchange market. 
 
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GMT 2:36 – EURO @ 1.2859 = Eruo should find top around 1.2875-85 levels, as break will encourage for a test of 1.2915. Expecting dip, but on the downside clear break of 1.2810 will encourage for 1.2775.
GMT 2:43 – GBP @ 1.5030 = The pressure will remain intact as Cable is likely to hold below 1.5055-60, break of 1.4990-95 is required for test of 1.4965-70 zones, but if fall seen I will refrain from selling, as I recommend switching to buying position and would fetch bottom, as correction and bounce back will seen. 1.4910 should hold. OR else 1.5090-00.
GMT 2:46 – JPY @ 102.12 = Yen should ease, as 101.80-90 zones is unlikely to surrender for move towards 102.7080. Or else 101.65.
GMT 2:54 – AUD @ 0.9571 = Aussie is now whisker away from my weekly target of 0.9520-40, but there is no change in my weekly view as I would refrain for further selling around 0.95 levels and prefer buying on dip is breaks for some corrective up moves. A push above 0.9690 is required to test 0.9750 or else 0.9440 before up.
GMT 2:28  GOLD @ $ 1387.50 = Prefer selling around $ 1388-90, as $ 1396 should hold for test of $ 1378-80 zones, break would encourage for fall extending to $ 1370 zones.

 
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