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Yen Still Confusing, USD to Recover – Gold to Test $ 1400- May 24

May 24, 2013

Though it is hard to tell the real cause of panic, it seems that the noise in global stock market came after the surge in Japanese Govt Bond yield, probably off loading their short position or profit taking that was caused by surge in 10-year bond yield after Bernanke’s testimony. But there is another fear that contraction of Chinese growth provided the momentum as it is considered bad news for the world market, since UK and 27 member Euro-zones countries are already struggling for economic recovery. The beneficiaries were Gold, JPY and Swiss Franc. So far market is trading and behaving in an orderly manner. Off course USD always enjoy heavenly status in every odd situation, but this time US Dollar gain was short lived after strong PMI announcement from Germany and Euro-zone indicating improved condition in manufacturing and service sector. Surprisingly USD could not benefit despite jobless claims falling and new home sales surging in March, but it did help 10-year US bond yield to recover after falling below 2 pct to 2.03 pct. Today market should focus on release of German IFO Index that could do well after improved PMI data. Better than expected consumer confidence and German GDP could also be supportive, which if true would not be enough to bring major shift in sentiment, as Europe financial system has enormous task ahead that needs to be fixed. While in US session, market will be looking for notorious Durable Good data, which is expected to do well after large aircraft orders in March, which means transport section of the data should take the lead.

Twitter  @asadcmka

GMT 3:27 – GBP @ 1.5080 = Cable is still having weak tone and may not find enough legs to penetrate beyond 1.5130-40 levels. GBP needs to break 1.5035-40 for a test of 1.4980-90 levels or esle 1.5180.
GMT 3:34 – GOLD @ $ 1394 = Initially support $ 1385 may hold for upside move. Break of $ 1398-00 could push gold towards $ 1405-08 zones. But care around $ 1400, as I remain bearish for gold, which could fall sharply later in the day for potential test of $ 1370 zones. I will not hesitate to pick the top.
GMT 3:38 – JPY @ 102.30 = 102.70-80 is a very crucial level and unless break risk is for test and break of 101.70-80 for res-test of 100.70 zones with possibility of test of 100 levels. Or else test of 103.60-80 zones.
GMT 3:40 – AUD @ 0.9656 = Saw corrective up move and if fails to hold 0.9605, this fall could extend up to 0.9550. Or else 0.9740-50.
GMT 3:10 – EURO @ 1.2915 = Most likely to hold 1.2880 for a move towards 1.2955-60, break is required to attack 1.2985-90 zones before easing, but should not surpass 1.3025. Challenge on the downside will be around 1.2850.

 

Interaction with my Subscribers during the day……………

6:05 AM  GOLD @ $ 1390.50 = Saw perfect fall atter hitting above $ 1398. Hope you booked your profit on the up and sold at the top. 
Book your profit now around $ 1390. I would prfer to buy on dip for anothet upside attack……….Cheers
6:58 AM  Gold buying is prefered around $ 1385…………..
8:21 AM  sir euro should book profit around 1.2980 or wait ?
8:30 AM  EURO @ 1.2887 — Book your prifit around 1.2887-93…Cheers
8:31 AM GBP @ 1.5113 = Sell around 1.5113-18……….Stops 1.5155
9:42 AM  GOLD @ $ 1385.50 = Hold on as gold could extend its loss and hit $ 1382-83………..Buy around those levels
10:35 AM  gbp sold 1.5115 stop loss 1.5155
10:37 AM  Yes, but Cable is behaving like a naughty boy ;-0
12:06 PM  EURO @ 1.2845 = Book your profit around 1.2840-45 if you went short around 1.2885-90 as per my morning post……….Cheers
 12:07 PM  GBP @ 1.5107 = Suggest closing Cable position around 1.5102-0
12:19 PM GOLD @ $ 1394 = Any one long gold should take profit around $ 1394-96 before data……
12:32 PM  Expectig Euro to hold 1.2770-80
GBP to hit 1.5040-50
JPY to top around 102……………..
Gold Support around $ 1380-82
12:37 PM  Oh dear, I made a big blunder EURO support is around 1.2870-80…….
12:47 PM  GOLD @ $ 1389 = Sell around $ 1389-92 Stops $ 1395 for $ 1380-82…
 12:49 PM  Gold has the spice it can still test $ 1392-94 zones
12:59 PM  GOLD @ $ 1392 hold on, sell around $ 1395……………………
1:36 PM  sir shall go short gbp now at 1.5110??
2:42 PM GBP @ 1.5135 = this rally is likley to exhaust around 1.5145-50…..
3:02 PM  OK pals, fine end to the week.
Have a nice weekend……………………….Cheer

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