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European Financial Problem Will Remain Unresolved Issue – GOLD to Suffer – May 17

May 17, 2013
Apparently what I can make out from FED officials statements is that they are not about worried declining inflation trend, as couple of US data’s released suggesting mild slowdown, in fact today’s fall in CPI is lowest in 2-years. Easing oil prices have surely helped inflation to tapper down a bit. But FED officials are happy and seems to be enthusiastic with the pace recovery in job market and housing is one big supporting factor, which is helping US economy to recover. This is helping the Greenback to main its strength despite weak US data that we have seen this week.
The strength of US Dollar is also because of ECB’s Dovish mood and now market is realizing that Draghi’s threat of defending Euro at any cost was practically a joke that worked well in difficult times. In real sense, Euro’s strength that we saw about few months was unnatural and the economy is paying the price, as costly Euro did not help regions tourism business to grow and export business to flourish, instead ECB is now compelled to ease, which I consider late in chasing the global trend and the Euro suffering may continue unless US economic recovery fizzle out. 
It is true that Europe’s financial market problem is unending and is difficult to address because of the size of problem caused dues to excessive leveraging, helped faulty report about risk that it posses. Delay of EU banks stress test by banking regulator until 2014 speaks in volume about the quality of asset, which was last time carried in 2011 and present problem is a clear hint that last stress test was not a successful exercise as the banking sector problem still remain an unresolved issue. Probably sensing more problem buying of time is temporary cure not the solution.
 
Twitter        @asadcmka                for more……………………….
 
GMT  3:00 – EURO @ 1.286 =  Euro will remain under pressure and should hold around 1.29 levels. Break of 1.2935 is required for a test of 1.2970-75, which looks difficult. See risk that if 1.2805 surrenders on break of 1.2835, we see a deeper fall below 1.2770-75 levels.
GMT 3:09- GBP @ 1.5245 = Downside risk exist unless clears above 1.5335. Needs to clear 1.5295 to challenge the upside resistance level. I am expecting GBP to hit 1.5185-90 zones, clear break could see fall extending towards 1.5070.
GMT 3:13 – JPY @ 102.30 = Failure to move beyond 102.70-80 would once gain challenge 101.80, break risk for test 101.40-50 , as JPY needs to break 103.10 for 103.50.
GMT 3:17 – AUD 0.9762 = Downward journey may continue if fails to make upside break of 0.9820. Break of 0.9710 risk for test of 0.9660-70 zones. Or else 0.9860.
GMT 3:25 – GOLD @ $ 1381 = I still see risk for a fall and do expect sellers to appear on rise. Stiff resistance around $ 1388-90 area, may exhaust around $ 1385 zones, break of $ 1367 risk for sharp fall towards $ 1353 that could still gather momentum. Or else $ 1396 before down again. 
 
 
Interaction with my Subscribers during the day……………
 
4:42 AM  -sir should go short gold around 1385 ?
4:44 AM -1381 current level is good for selling ?
 4:45 AM – VEW IS UNCHANGED, I HAVE GIVEN YOU MY EARLY MORNING FEELER…
 5:00 AM -sold at 1381 stop loss `1389 ?
5:26 AM -sir euro 1.2870 short here and apply stop 1.2910 is it right ?
 5:59 AM -GOLD @ $ 1388 = Sell around $ 1388-90. Stops $ 1395……….
 6:41 AM -should book profit of gold at 1381 or wait ?
6:48 AM – GOLD @ $ 1377= Book your profit around $ 1375-77…Cheers
7:54 AM – sir euro at 1.2884 view remain same ?
9:52 AM – VIEW ON CURRENCIES REMAINS UNCHNAGED…………..
GOLD SHOULD HOLD AROUND $ 1385 FOR ANOTHER DIP. BREAK OF $ 1392 RISK FOR SOME MORE GAINS.
1:13 PM – gold n ext to do
1:14 PM – no change startegy unchanged. Sell book profit, sell book profit
1:20 PM – GBP @ 1.5179 – Book your profit around 1.5172-79….cheers
 1:33 PM – EURO @ 1.2804 = Book your profit around 1.2797-04…….Cheers
2:18 PM – sir view unchanged about gold break of 1367 will encouarge 1355??
2:27 PM –  my view is unchanged, today I have given ample of opportunity to make big money. I you all have missed the opportunity then blame yourself.
Now you decide if you wnat to close gold position, book your profit around $ 1365-68 levels or show guts by holding for another big dip………….
3:05 PM -Ok pals, another perfect day. Hope you all had a wonderful week.
Enjoy your weekend….cheers

 

 
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