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Soft Data Supports ECB Rate Cut & Stimulus – April 30

April 30, 2013

 

Interaction with my Subscribers during the day……………

 6:10 AM– GOLD @ $ 1462 = Book your profit around $ 1460-62 and go Long around $ 1458-60 Stops $ 1454…….Cheers
7:19 AM-sir shall go long euro at 1.3070??
 7:23 AM-EURO @ 1.3072 = We have already seen the highs of 1.3120. See risk for test of 1.3040-45. Euro will seek next direction from German unemployment………………..
7:54 AM-Sir any selling level for gold now? Or wait?
 7:57 AM-I said earlier to sell around $ 1476-78. If you have picked the top, book your profit around $ 1470-72……
7:59 AM-Next selling level around $ 1485…………
 8:03 AM-sir any news why gold gained so sharply??
 8:05 AM-Seems Large buying order………..
$ 1471-73 may hold for another updie attempt, unless $ 1467 surrenders
8:07 AM-and sir what abt euro after german data??
8:08 AM-Pick top to sell.
8:53 AM-sir shall go long gold at 1470 wid stops 1466??
9:49 AM-sir shall go short gbp around 1.5510 or wait??
 10:35 AM-GBP @ 1.5599 = I do not recomend selling of GBP and if went short around suggested levels 1.5515-20. Squaring of position is prefered. May hold above 1.5485-90 for 1.5540 or 1.5570 later in the day. Should not break below 1.5470…………
10:50 AM-GBP @ 1.5490 = Square Cable around 1.5485-90 and go long around 1.5460-70 Stops 1.5440…
11:18 AM-GBP @ 15477. Could dip to test1.5455-60 before up again.Pick the bottom…………
11:27 AM-sir what about aud shall go long at 1.0340 wid stops 1.03??
11:47 AM-sir what about gold
12:04 PM-GOLD @ $ 1472 = manish, $ 1467 is the crucial level on the downside. I am expecting if $ 1475 breaks for $ 1480….However, prefer picking the top, as see risk for shap fall………………….
12:04 PM– sir newyork eneterd gold view same 71-73 hold??
12:06 PM -wake up and refresh the page……….
I am getting too many unecessary from you……….!
12:09 PM-sorry sir.
12:10 PM-No problem, this is a wake call for you………
 12:49 PM-sir any views after US data on euro??
 1:06 PM -Gold will hover around $ 1466-75 – Euro around 1.3050-90 
GBP around 1.5470-20 Until release of Chicago Purchase Index & Consumer Confidence
2:04 PM -EURO @ 1.3148 = No change in View, Sell around 1.3153-65. Stops 1.3195….
2:06 PM -JPY @ 97.37 = Book your profit around 97.30-37….cheers
2:09 PM – what about gbp?
 2:09 PM – GOLD @ $ 1469.50= sell around $ 1469.50-72 Stops $ 1675
 2:12 PM– GBP @ 1.5526 = Book your profit around 1.5532-38 and sell around 1.5560 if seen Stops 1.5610………..
2:38 PM– GOLD @ $ 1469.50 = The key level right now is $ 1475, if breaks could see a short spike towrads $ 1480 before fall.
However, i will not be surprised to see sharp fall today…………..
3:00 PM -OK pals, if carrying positions do apply STOPs.
Cheers until tomorrow………….

==========

Once again we saw bad start to the week, US data showing no sign of respite as consumer spending and personal income both showing sign of weak economic performance. Market is expected to trade in a narrow range and may wait for two major events due on Wednesday & Thursday as monetary policy announcement by FED & ECB will give further direction to the market.
In the foreign exchange market, despite signs of further evidence of slow growth in Euro-zone region, Euro maintained its stronger tone helped by Italian was able to form a government without a dispute ending political deadlock that gave boost to Italian bond auction selling Euro 3 billion 10-year bond at 3.94pct yield. Vote of confidence is expected today, which could give addition support to the currency.
But keep in mind that Thursday’s ECB monetary policy announcement could drag down the European currency from new highs, as many traders are still betting for possibly a bigger move by ECB that could be 25 to 50 bp cut with some even hoping for stimulus because they are sensing that European economy needs a big kick start.
However, during the day, there are quite a few economic numbers due to be released that provide trading opportunity to the market.

Catch me for Gold & Currencies on Twitter            @asadcmka

GMT 2:53 – EURO @ 1.3090 = Expecting 1.3060-670 to hold for a move towards 1.3125-35. However, I would still prefer selling around 1.3150, as protection is around 1.3190 or else 1.3025.
GMT 3:01 – GBP @ 1.5482 = Cable after hitting 1.5545 is now in corrective mode and may have softer stance. I do not see move much beyond 1.5515-20 and see risk for  drop to 1.5450 or test of 1.5430-35 zones. Break above 1.5550 could be threatening for some more minor gains before down again.
GMT 3:07 – JPY @ 97.94 = Strong resistance is around 98.30-35 and only break would see a push towards 98.70. However, I expecting a test of 97.60 and break would encourage for 97.30.
GMT 3:12  – AUD @ 1.0345 = As long as 1.0310 holds, up move on break of 1.0360 towards 1.0385-90 is possible or else. 1.0280.
GMT 3:18 – GOLD @ $ 1471.50 = Gold should hold around $ 1476-78 levels but needs to break $ 1462-64 for test of $ 1457-58 levels. Or else $ 1484-85.

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