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After poor PMI, Weak IFO could paint Gloomier Picture – April 24

April 24, 2013

Interaction with my Subscriber (S) during the day……………

6:29 AM -sir shall short gold at 1428 with stops 1431??
6:31 AM– GOLD @ $ 1428 =No, as I see $ 1423-25 to hold, Long should book profit around $ 1432-34 and pick TOP to sell around $ 1434-36. Stops $ 1442

8:11 AM– sir gold break 1423 level.. view unchanged??

8:13 AM– Buy around $1420-22 = Stops break of $ 1415-16

8:51 AM– sir shorted gbp stops hit 1.5280.. any new position??

9:01 AM Ok fine, 1.5270-80 is the suggested level to go short. Do apply STOPs if 1.5320 breaks……………… Cheers

9:03 AM– EURO @ 1.3005 = Hope you have booked your profit around 1.2965. Now sell around 1.3015-20. STOPs 1.3050……….

9:09 AM– sir euro sold at 1.3012 and stop loss 1.3045 is it right ?

9:11 AM– pd, I have given signal for Euro. I think you have miseed out . Please refresh the page………………Your sale is OK

9:47 AM– sir gold bought at 1421 .. stop 1415 ok!!
 9:48 AM– Yes, OK, But keep in mind that resistance is around $ 1426-28 if fails to break could dip to test $ 1417…………….So plan accordingly

12:30 PM– Euro to test 1.3040-50. Gold to test $ 1432-34

12:31 PM– GBP to test 1.5285-95

12:31 PM– JPY @ 99.42 = Hold your JPY purcahse for gains………….

12:37 PM– GOLD @ $ 1430 = Do not be greedy hope you have booked profit around $ 1432…

12:38 PM – Hope you have book your profit in Short Cable position….
Do Not buy GBP…………will try to pick top to sell gaian….

12:49 PM – GOLD @ $ 1433 = Sell aroudn $ 1435-37 Stops $ 1442

1:05 PM – sir shall go long gold at 1428 wid stops 1425 again??

1:10 PM – GOLD @ $ 1428.40 = May see minor dip but should hold $ 1425-27 fore another upside attempt or esle test of # 1421-23……..

1:28 PM– EURO @ 1.2984 = Faliure to move beyond 1.3010 risk for a test of 1.2954

 2:25 PM – GOLD @ $ 1426 = Hope you have booked your profit. Do not hold could drop sharply on break of $ 1424………

2:32 PM – EURO @ 1.3007 = Go for small profit around 1.3007-15, as see risk for a drop. However any upmove beyond will be short lived……………….

 2:57 PM – sir pound at 1.5270 should go for short here or wait ?

3:04 PM – JPY @ 99.33 = Book your profit around 99.27-33……….Cheers

3:06 PM -Ok, pals, end of another excellent day…………

Cheers until tomorrow……………………………

 

European uncertainty is still weighing on the market sentiment. But it is slow growth in Germany that is matter of grave concern for the regions economy. Poor condition in Euro-zone region due to debt is having impact on German economy, which is getting closer to worst. PMI reading in Europe is already in negative and yesterday’s German PMI falling below 50 mark gave further blow to the hopes off recovery. Today’s German Business Sentiment Index commonly known as IFO could paint more gloomy picture is it falls further that will increase the probability of further ECB rate.
Furthermore, better New Home Sales number could not give boost to the market due to downward revision of past month’s number, but I am of view that US data of past couple of months was disappointing due to quite a few facts such as  sequester and tax impact and hence, we have to forward looking. I see US economy would continue to show positive growth signs, as QE therapy will work as long as FED linger on with its QE strategy.
Meanwhile, I am not expecting JPY to break 100 mark today, as weak European data, weaker economic condition in UK and rumor of Euro/Sfr 1.25 parity shifts investors sentiment towards JPY and Aussie. However, sellers of Japanese currency will jump to short JPY  and will try to pick USD around 98.50-70 is seen.

GMT 3:19 – GBP @ 1.5234 = Cable has strong resistance around 1.5270-80, risk is for a drop to around 1.516-70 zones. Break could potentially be more threatening unless GBP clears 1.5320. 

GMT 3:24 – JPY @ 99.34 = Little tricky today, as I do not see a move much beyond 99.65-80 zones. However, Yen sellers will be keen to sell the Japanese currency around 98.65-70 with protection around 98.30.

GMT 3:27 – AUD @ 1.0237 = Aussie should hold above 1.0170-80 levels and a minor bounce back from 1.0205 for 50 pip is possible.

GMT 3:31 – GOLD @ $ 1423.50 = I see strong support around $ 1415 and will not be surprised to see break of $ 1428-30 for test of $ 1435-40 zones. $ 1402 should hold on the downside.

GMT 3:13 – EURO @ 1.2993 = Euro needs to surpass 1.3030-40 zones for 1.3090, which looks difficult and hence would prefer to sell the European currency around 1.3010-20. Break of 1.2965 will encourage for 1.2935 that could expend up to 1.2010.

Twitter   @asadcmka ………………………..

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