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GOLD, break of $ 1310 risk for bigger fall – Yen Strength to Fizzle out – April 16

April 16, 2013

 Interaction with my Subscriber (S) during the day……………

 5:59 AM – GOLD @ $ 1364.50 = Gold is getting support around $ 1355-60, may see attempt towards $ 1372-75 before fall if $ 1382 fails to break. Downside risk still exist………………..
6:15 AM – GOLD @ $ 1373 = Do not hold, book your profit around $ 1373-76…..
6:25 AM – GOLD @ $ 1380 = Since market is too fast and choppy. Next elevls is $ 1390 if fails to push beyond could see sharp drop…………..

 6:27 AM – JPY @ 97.65 = Short Yen should take profit around 97.65-75 levels………

6:31 AM – AUD @ 1.0376 = Long Aussie should take care as 1.0390 is the resistance level and may not be easy to penetrate………….

7:24 AM – Sir, there is talk of town that gold could test 1200 with in short term is it possible sir please some view on gold as weekly you have mentioned but you said i will take time to go 1145. but as mkt trend is going is it possible will go to big fall ??

 7:29 AM – I do not believe in such talks as i am a a practice person. Rumors are spread to misguide the market.
My common sense tells me that increase in margin call and offloading of long positions will trigger selling. 
I give weightage to reality and not talks……………

 7:42 AM – sir where to sell gold now below 90 is prefered to sell gold with sl

7:49 AM – This is tough one to answer when day time volatility is 5-10. You have decide Stops. Yes $1390 is crucial.

9:03 AM – sir how to trade in gold wait till newyork if in us gold dont break up 1390 then sell with sl 1391

9:03 AM – GOLD @ $ 1377 = Struggling at the momement failure to move beyond $ 1382-85 could see a dip towrds $ 1360-60 or else $ 1390

9:26 AM – GOLD @ $1377.30 = do not sell now could test $ 1382…………..

9:28 AM – short at 1578 sir apply stop loss 1586 is it right sir?

9:29 AM – up to you..as break risk test of $ 1388-90

9:36 AM – GOLD @ $ 1383.30 – if long book profit around $ 1383.30-86…….

 9:51 AM – GOLD @$ 1391 = Sell around $ 1391-93. Try to pick top. Stops $ 1399

10:44 AM – GBP @ 1.5318 = Long GBP, should book your profit around 1.5318-25………….

11:38 AM – Gold @ $ 1383 = Hope you have sold around $ 1393. Needs to break $ 1377 for $ 1360………………

12:08 PM – sir should go again for short sell ?

12:10 PM – GOLD @ $ 1392 = Sell around $ 1394-95. Stops $ 1405………

12:14 PM – Avoid position taking due to data in next 16 minutes………..

12:17 PM – view remain same about gold ?

12:23 PM – I said avoid new position………………

12:35 PM – Gold should find top around $ 1398 for thr moment pick top to sell and book quick profit. S/L $ 1405

12:37 PM – EURO @ 1.3135 = Could test 1.3160-70 zones…………

12:41 PM – GOLD @ $ `1393= Likley to hold $ 1387 and test $ 1398………

12:57 PM – sir i bought at 1593 where should apply stop loss 1386?

12:58 PM – do take profit quick profit………..around $ 1397-99………

1:35 PM – do you prefer short sell ?

1:47 PM – Ok, needs to break $ 1384-86 levels for $ 1378 or esle another test $ 1392-95 zones……………

2:03 PM – sir should buy at 1379 apply stop loss 1376

2:04 PM  -sir i sold at 1385 and book profit around 1380

 2:11 PM – Did the right thing next is $ 1368-70 may hold for small correction next levels is $ 1360-62 should hold

2:27 PM – sir i bought at 1372 where should book profit ?

2:28 PM –  do not hols book around $ 1378-80

 2:42 PM – sir should go short for sell  $ 1382

 2:43 PM – Hi sir, 12:37 PM post about EURO is still valid ? Thanks
2:44 PM – Prefer aroudn $ 1382-84 Stps $ 1390…….

2:46 PM – Euro should exhust around 1.3160-70. Still see minor chance of up move……….

3:02 PM – Euro is loosing is gloss failure to move above 1.314040- risk for a test iof 1.3090………..

 

 GOLD, break of $ 1310 risk for bigger fall – Yen Strength to Fizzle out – April 16

After Friday’s plunge caused by various factors that have been often discussing in my post, gold lovers were not given any breathing space at the start of new week, as on Monday morning in Asian trading session, Shanghai Gold Exchange raised margin call after gold plunged, it further triggered selling. Gold got clobbered soon after China announced 1st quarter GDP growth weaker than market expectation. It seems that as if investors have finally realized that gold is a costly dead asset that offers no return.
China’s economic slowdown impacted Aussie Dollar as its economy heavily relies on Chinese import from Australia, which caused selling of reliable Australian Dollar. Do keep in mind that AUD is a commodity currency and commodities are under lot of pressure and latest release of RBA minutes hinting drop in inflation will provide room for rate cut.
Swiss Franc already under threat from SNB intervention to weaken its currency due to pressure from exporters looks risky proposition for investors and Pound Sterling is suffering due to recession and weak economic condition in UK.
Therefore, investors showed confidence in Japanese Yen as safe heaven currency that made big gains. However, caution is suggested, as Yen could drop sharply on BOJ or government official statement because they may not spoil all the hard work, since there are signs that weak Yen had started to boot Japan’s economy that still needs more effort to do away with its long period of recession/deflation.
There is long list of economic data due to today so market will be kept busy on every release. RBA minutes eased investors sentiment and now Europe and later USA will be releasing barrage for data’s. German ZEW, could set today’s tone. I will be watching release of UK closely, which requires some positivity that may provide much needed surprise lift to GBP or else it could take a big dip on poor release of data.
I think we should keep a close watch on US inflation data because one of the factor that gave shiver to gold was fear of inflation, though in present times, inflation data should not be a matter of concern for the US economy, but at times market do react without any sound reasoning. Overall, be prepared for choppy trading day.

GMT 3:01 – GBP @ 1.5276 = As long as levels around 1.5230-40 holds see risk for a test 1.5335-40 zones. Break of 1.5390 will encourage for a test of 1.5430-35 zones. Or else 1.5170-80.
GMT 3:07 – JPY @ 97.06 = I will not hesitate to sell Yen around 96.40-50, but protection is around 95.90. Looking for a test 97.50-60 zones and break would  encourage for 98.20.
GMT 3:12 – AUD 1.0335 = We may have seen excessive fall as 1.0280-90 remains a very strong support level with next support at 1.0240. AUD needs to clear for 1.0360-70 for test of 1.0410-20.
GMT 3:18 – GOLD @ $ 1345 = I do not rule out another test of $ 1325 if holds around $ 1360-65 levels. However, break of $ 1390 is required for $ 1420, which looks difficult at the moment. Deeper fall is still a possibility if $ 1310 surrenders.
GMT 2:55 EURO @ 1.3043 = I am expecting trading in 1.2990- 1.3080 range, with bias on downside until data announcement. Break of 1.2970-75 is required for a test of 1.2930 levels. However, needs to clear 1.3095 for test of 1.3150-80 zones.

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