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Strong Retail Sales Data could Smash 100 Yen – April 12

April 12, 2013
As we approach weekend there is some sort of stability in Europe and market concentration diverted towards US economic growth after last week poor nan farm payroll data. Yesterdays jobless claims was better than expectation that may have eased concern about US economy to a certain extent that jobs condition may be as bad as thought earlier helping US Dollar. 
Today’s retail should provide further guidance that US consumer are still spending to a satisfactory level, which means a better data will give further confidence that Fed’s hard word is still delivering desired result. It is quite foolish to expect that every data announcement will land in positive territory because there are many influencing factors such as weather, impact of sequester is yet unknown and amendment is taxes structure could have impacted the consumers behavior.  
Meanwhile, as per expectation ECB had noting new to add after Draghi hinting that Europe is still exposed to risk and recover my take take time. So can report deviate from it’s Presidents statement. There no other major data announcement from Europe so market is likely to trade in ranges until data announcement in batches from NYK.

GMT 2:28 -EURO @ 1.3115  = I am expecting Euro to play in ranges until NYK between 1.3080 – 1.3150 and is unlikely to break this band until US economic data announcement. However, dip below or upside break of 1.3050 and 1.3190 respectively would mean change in  trading band.
GMT 2:36 – GBP @ 1.5404 = Key levels is 1.5365-70, as long as it holds Cable would try to move towards 1.5440-50 zones and only break would encourage for 1.5475. However, break of support levels will encourage for a test of 1.5315-20 before up again.
GMT 2: 41 – AUD @ 1.0547 = I will still not hesitate to sell Aussie around 1.0580-90 levels, as looking for drop to 1.0510-20. Convincing break of this levels will encourage for a test of 1.0480-90 zones. Or else test of 1.0620-40 is possible.
GMT 2:49 – JPY @ 99.47 = Could see a test of 99.20-25 zones, break could see a possible move towards 99 zones. Prefer selling Japanese currency if seen before release of US data for a move towards 99.70-80 zones. Good retail sales figure will give marker reason to break long awaited 100 mark. Or else disappointing US economic data will see a push towards 98.50.
GMT @ 2:49 – GOLD @ $ 1561.50 = Gold could make small gains towards $ 1566-68. However, it has protection around $ 1572 and only break risk for $ 1580. A fall below $ 1555-58 levels is required for test and break of $ 1550 for more losses.


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