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Euro – GBP – Yen likely to correct – April 10

April 10, 2013
 
GMT 3:12  – Euro at 1.3086 = There is a minor risk for a move towards 1.3115-20 zones, but any up move should be good opportunity to pick the top to sell, as i am not expecting 1.3160-80 levels to surrender with. Needs to break below 1.3010 for a test of 1.2955-60 levels.
 
GMT 3:14 – AUD @ 1.0512 = We could see small upside move and break of 1.0535-40 is required for 1.0565-70, which is not a favoured move. However, I will not hesitate to sell, as see 100-15 pip drop in next 2-days. 

GMT 3:19 – GBP @ 1.5333 = Cable could make another 35-40 pip gain before exhausting, Pick top to sell with Stops if 1.5420 surrenders. See risk for a test of 1.5280-90 levels.

GMT 3:19 –  JPY @ 99.02 = Barriers around 99.25 and 99.55, if holds could see a test and break of 99.60 for 99.20-40 zones.

GMT 3:23 –  GOLD @ $ 1586.70 = Strong support around $ 1580-82, as see risk for a break of $ 1592 that may encourage for a test of $ 1595-98 zones. Or else $ 1575.

 
So far, comparatively a stable week because Europe is quiet as if all European problems such as Cyprus, Portugal, problematic Greek banks and Italy’s election are now forgotten issue. This could be temporary and hence, market seems to be back on track as focus is shifted towards economic happenings.  
 
As there is no major data announcement that could move the market, focus could shift towards FOMC minutes. Interestingly since FED minutes will discuss economic condition during February/March period it may show some positivity, as the economy was then booming, where as recent US economic data suggest slowdown, though this could be temporary.
 
Meanwhile, all eyes is on Japanese currency looking for the USD/JPY pair to break 100. In my Monday’s weekly post, I pointed out that Japanese Yen will give resistance and needs to break below 99.60 convincingly to test 100 magic number. US Dollar made one attempt, but could not succeed to penetrate beyond. Failing to surpass could mean possible test of 98.20 zones, break may encourage JPY for more gains before we another attack on Japanese currency.
 
A word on Australian Dollar that I do not see any reason for being too bullish as Fitch has downgraded China and Chinese trade balance is on the red against expectation although Imports rose and exports dropped slightly, but this is not a good sign for the Chinese economy. Australian economy is too dependent on Chinese growth and Australian rate cut is a good possibility. So I do not see enough reason for investors to go long Aussie at current levels.
 
Curreny & Gold Update Later…………………..
Catch me on Twitter                                 @asadcmka
 
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