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Draghi will be Cautious – BOJ has to Act – GBP & EURO to fall, GOLD Up – April 4

April 4, 2013

JOIN Me on TWITTER ……………….   @asadcmka

Interaction with Subscriber (S) during the day……………

9-Correct Calls – No Loss BOOKED…………..

GMT 4:26 = (S) sir whats the reason for gold suffer alot after negative u.s.a data ?
GMT 4:55 = I have already answered you on your data query yesterday. I think you did not get time to read my reply.
Lack of buying interest, liquidation and threat of unwinding of QE by FED are some of the reason. If you ready my last 2-months outlook and argument that why my gold target of $ 1475 is intact you will get the answer. I thinking of revising my gold target downward to $ 1200-$ 1300 😉
GMT 5:16 = JPY @ 94.12 = Now 93.50-70 is the key level, should hold for a move beyond 94.98…….Cheers
GMT 5:02 = GOLD @ $ 1551 = Hope you have book your profit at $ 1554.
Now next buying level is around $ 1546-48 Stops $ 1542……..Cheers
GMT 5:20 = JPY @ 94.98 = Book your profit…………Cheer
GMT 5:37 = GBP @ 1.5078 = book your profit around 1.5072-78…Cheers
GMT 5:34  = (S)  sir 1 question plze give some reply what time peroid do u expect gold 1200 1300 with in 3 months or more till end of these year
GMT 7:41  = Not in 3-months, as there are plenty of factors involved. This cannot be replied with one liner answer. I said I am thinking of revising.
GMT 7:49 = GOLD @ $ 1548 = Filure to move beyond $ 1552 risk for test of $ 1540-42
GMT 7:54  = EURO @ 1.2805 = Should hold 1.2825 for 1.2770…………..
GMT 7:57 = AUD @ 1.0408 = Should sould cover Aussie position around 1.0402-08 and go long around 1.0385-95 STOPS 1.0355
GMT 8:10 = (S) sir, Buy Gold here ?>
GMT 8:11 = GOLD @ $ 1541 = Book your profit around $ 1539-41…..Cheers
GMT 8:15  = GBP @ 1.5143 = I do not recomend Short Cable if 1.5010-20 holds we could see re-test of 1.5090-00.area…….
GMT 8:18 = GOLD @ $ 1543.30 = very difficult to keep pace with the market. So do Apply STOPS.
GMT 8:19 = Just a thought on Cable I would not hestsite to buy GBP as long as 1.5010 holds……………..GL
GMT 8:21  = Do not rush to buy Gold could still dip to tst and break $ 1535………..
GMT 8:28 = Hold cable position could test 1.5120-30 zone
GMT 8:39 = (S) sir where to short gold now??
GMT 8:55 = GOLD @ $ 1547.50 = Although I am expecting another dip if fails to break $ 1550-52 levels, but I would warn that NYK is nearly 2 hours away. We could see some buying. So come up with a strategy before entering…..
GMT 9:01 = (S) sir view about gbp same?? where to take profit?
GMT 9:05 = I would suggest closing of GBP position if long as the expected move has not occured and Closing short EURO position because I don’t want to spoil the day………………… More later…………
GMT 9:09 = (S) sir where to short gbp?
GMT 14:15  = Yes, do not see break below 1.5010-20, but needs to push above 1.5095-00 for more gains…….
GMT 9:35 = (S) should go short gold at 1548 ?
GMT 9:56 = (S) i went short pound at 1.5090 where should apply stop/loss
GMT 9:57 = (S) Sir, Do u think that the upcoming ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference will be dovish enough to drop the EURO lower to 1.27 due to the bad condition of EU specially in ITALY and Cyprus?
Thanks
GMT 10:01 = I will stick to my morning view on Draghi’s statement………….
GMT 10:04 = GBP @ 1.5112 = Book your profit around 1.5112-18.
However, I am expecting 1.5070-80 to hold for possible test of 1.5140-50 Cheers
GMT 10:12 = GBP @ 1.5128 = Current GBP move could extend up to 1.5160-65, should hold 1.5090…..
GMT 10:31 = Euro to hold .2970 for 1.2860
GBP to test 1.5160
Gold to find support around $ 1542 for test and break of $ 1550 for $ 1556-58
GMT 10:37 = GBP @ 1.5150 = book your profit around 1.5150-55……Cheers
GMT 10:38 = Sorry please read 1.2770 = Prefer buying, STOPS 1.2740…
GMT 10:40 = GBP @ 1.5112 = Buy GBP aroud 1.5105-12. STOPS 1.5070………
GMT 10:42 = GOLD @ $ 1552 = Book your profirt around $ 1552-54……cheers
GMT 12:59 = EURO @ 1.2767 = Get rid of Euro position, as I am not comfortable, Euro could further dip. Suggest stay away for now……….
GMT 13:11 = GBP @ 1.5120 = Sqaure GBP around 1.5120-25. Likely to ease a bit.
GMT 13:19 = GOLD @ $ 1546.40 = Could dip to test $ 1543-46 before making another upisde attempt. But should hold $ 1540 or else $ 15333-35 ebfore up again……..
GMT 13:40 = GOLD $ 1545 = Do not buy hold on…………….
GMT 13:42 = Could test $ 1540-42 before up again………………..
GMT
GMT 14:08 = Extremely tired today. This was the best day of te year, though missed out few opportunities. But protecting you all from wrong trade was more important.
Potentially Euro could test 1.2890 – GBP 15195-00 – Gold could make sharp recovery. but would prefer to stay cool right now 🙂
GMT 14:57 = (S) Sir, Will Bernanke not speak tonite ?
GMT 15:00 = he is suppose to be delivering his speach now. haven’t anything as yet………………
GMT 15:01  = Ok pals, take care & cheers……………….


GMT 2:50 –
While Europe is taking a breather after Cyprus affair and waiting to here more about developments in Italy after the elections, recent release of economic data’s from USA have been disappointing showing signs of weakness. Last night’s release of ADP numbers was not encouraging as it disclosed that private sector could create 158.000 jobs against market expectation of 215.000 gain. Earlier Consumer confidence Index took a dip and Jobless claims has already surged, which is not an encouraging sign for the economy as more needs to be done and bad payroll this week could give enough reason for market to correct.

I think there is not much to talk about ECB & BOE rate decision, as the economies in the respective regions are in struggling mode that suggest softer stance, though I do not expect immediate rate cut and Draghi may avoid talking of possible cut in future that give drubbing to the European currency. Similarly threat of asset purchase should keep Pound struggling until BOE announcement.

While, first meeting on monetary policy with new BOJ Governor Kuroda is still going on and since Japan’s government have been very support of aggressive easing and quicker inflation Koroda has to come up and disclose his open ended asset purchase plan or has come come up with something extra-ordinary that could once again push Yen towards 95-97 zones or else any disappointment may help Yen to make further correction, which may also provide some room for gold to correct from last nights fall.

GMT 2:50 -GOLD @ $ 1543.90 = Gold is having softer tone and I am expecting the present trend to continue until BOJ announcement. But still believe that $ 1535-38 will hold for a move towards $ 1554 and a convincing break could push it higher towards $ 1560’s zone.

GMT 2:59 – EURO @ 1.2846 = In Asia I am expecting 1.2810 to hold for small up move towards 1.2870-80 zones. I prefer to pick the top to sell as 1.2930 in unlikely to surrender. Break of 1.2780 will pave way for 1.2740.

GMT 3:02 – GBP @ 1.5135 = I will not hesitate to sell Cable, as I do not see upside beyond 1.5160 and needs to break 1.5190 for bigger gains. Break of 1.5040-50 will encourage for test of 1.4970-80 levels.

GMT 3:08 – JPY 92.96 = Could be choppy before announcement 93.40-50 should hold and move towards 92.30 is possible on break of 92.60. However, technically levels to watch is 93.98 break confirms that we could soon be entering 95-97 zones. However, break of 92.10 will see larger correction possibly test and break of 90.50-70 zones.

GMT 3:12 – AUD @ 1.0473 = Aussie needs to clear tow minor barriers 1.0498 and 1.0510 for test of 1.0550 or else see risk for a test and drop below 1.0445 for 1.0390.

GMT 1:25 – GOLD @ $ 1546.50 = Buy gold around $ 1544-46. STOPS $ 1538 for $ 1554.

JOIN Me on TWITTER ……………….   @asadcmka

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