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Bernanke escaped behind cost/benefit theory – Feb 28

February 28, 2013


Join me on Twitter for quick currency & gold Updates……….. @asadcmka

GMT 9:00 – (C) Hi Sir, What about EURO now after GERMAN Data ? Thanks
GMT 9:04 – I remain bearish for Euro and will pick top to sell…………
GMT 9:41 (C) gold 1590 what about gold
GMT 10:10 (C) should buy gold with sl 85 why QUITE
GMT 10:21 – I have already posted in my morning update that $ 1606 will not be easy to crack and if support $ 1593-95 breaks next would be $ 1585. So if have not taken profit on long and and sold around $ 1603. Then. I am helpless.
You can still buy on dip, for $ 5-6 profit but keep a close watch on $ 1584-85 levels. I will make update if and when necessary
Do read my post carefuly, as I signaled that Iam bearish for Gold & Currencies…………..
GMT 12:02 – EURO @ 1.3115 = We have have seen the expected fall that failed to push towards and below 1.3090 zones. I am expecting a small up-move towards 1.3125-30 zones before another dip……………
GMT 12:56 – GOLD @ $ 1592.50 = Book your profit around $ 1592.50-94……..cheer
GMT 12:58 – (C) gold where to bbok profit
GMT 13:03  – EURO @ 1.3137 = Sell Euro aroudn 1.3137-45. Stops 1.3180………..
GMT 13:18 – GBP @ 1.5210 = Hope you have booked profit and went short around suggested level 1.5220………Apply Stops if 1.5260 breaks
GMT 13:22 – GOLD @ $ 1592 = We could see a small upmove towards $ 1595-96, as long as $ 1584-85 holds…………
GMT 13:34 – GOLD @ $ 1592 = If $ 1588 holds we could another upside test……..
GMT 13:52 (C) where should book profit gbp?
GMT 13:54 – GBP @ 1.5175 = Book your profit around 1.5170-75…..Cheers
GMT 14:09 – GOLD @ $ 1597= Book your profit around $ 1597-99…Cheers
GMT 14:48 – GOLD @ $ 1587.50= Worth trying a a buy around $ 1585-87.50 Apply Stops if 1582 breaks
GMT 14:59 – GOLD @ $ 1588 = Square gold position I am not comfortable holding gold position……….
GMT 15:00 = GOLD #C $ 1588 = If fails to break $ 1592-93 could see a fall………
GMT 15:04 = EURO @ 1.3090 = Book your profit around 1.3085-90. could dip to test 1.3065-70 levels…….Cheers
GMT 15;09 – OK pals, end on an excellent week and a successful month end too…..Cheers until tomorrow……………
GMT 15:11 (C) Thanks Sir
GMT 15:16 – One request to all, please do not force me to give a trading level. My responsibility is to make sure that I do not make a wrong call or to make minimum mistake and this is not possible until I am too confident about possible coming move. Thank you all.


GMT 3:33 EURO @ 1.3144 = Finally, Bernanke is done with the testimony. He had to maintain his Dovish approach to defend his ongoing easing plan as he was left with no other choice. He kept on saying to every query that jobs is his priority, which happened to be a very effective tool to defend against all odds. I do support his view that housing market is performing better. But, when questioned about the economic repercussion of unwinding or exit strategy, he did manage to escape by replying that Fed has monetary tools available, which is another gimmick and for an outsider or non-treasury perosn it is difficult to counter. He frequently murmured about cost and benefit, which is the basic of any business and to me this was irrelevant answer.
I am sure Ben is counting his days because he knows that people have short memory, every one quickly forgets the past and is history, just like people have forgotten that who is responsible for all the ongoing financial mess. Yes, I am pointing my fingers towards Allan Greenspan. The reason is obvious that every top financial boss knows that he/she will not be held accountable for financial ciaos.
I think Italy got escaped after the Italian bond auction, which is temporary because in size the quantum of problem i.e, is huge. Bunga Bunga is a throne in flesh, do not take this easy as Italian political gridlock is undone. Italy is yet to face the after effect of election, which will spill all over Europe. It is not over by any means and this could be a trap.
There is no major US economic data, but Europe will be releasing loads of economic data that will give more clue about the economic performance in the region. Though market seems to be a bit comfortable regarding development in Europe. I would suggest to remain on toes for market reversal, it is sin to believe that that tiny successful Italian bond auction result will change overall market sentiment. Draghi has once again hinted that there is no exit plan, as economy is weak strengthening the case of rate cut. Do not be complacent and wit to pick the top to sell Euro and GBP. I believe that Gold is on its last leg of up-move, honeymoon period will soon be over.

EURO @ 1.3144 = Euro may find some support in Asia and early Europe and my hold above 1.3090 for a test of 1.3175-80 zones. However, I do not see enough room on the upside as strong resistance is around 1.3240-50 zones. up-move should be opportunity to sell Euro a break below 1.3090 will threaten for more losses.
GMT 3:38 – GBP @ 1.5173 = see minor risk for a test of 1.5220-30 zones. Prefer picking the top to sell, as 1.5280 should find protection for another test of 1.5140-60 zones.
GMT 3:42 = AUD @ 1.0277 = The expected up-move has occurred and minor extension of upward rally towards 1.0300-10 should not be threatening, which should soon exhaust unless break above 10360 for another dip, but 1.0220 would be challenging level to break.
GMT 3:55 = JPY 92.33 = The move is quite in line of my forecast. Now 91.50 should hold and break of 92.90 is required to pave way for a test of 93.35-40 zones or esle 91.20.
GMT 4:06 = GOLD @ $ 1598 = During the day, gold should find support around $ 1593-95 levels and the key on downside is $ 1585. Risk is that upside top should be around $ 1606 and only break could see a move towards $ 1610-12 zones. However, I do not see continuation of up-move and fall looks unavoidable by later today or by tomorrow.

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