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US Payroll to determine Market Trend – Feb 01

February 1, 2013



Live Update Available to BLOG SUBSCRICERS………

GMT 4:26 – AUD 1.0390 = Bias weak and likey to trade around 1.0320 – 1.0415. Sell by picking the top STOPS if 1.0450 surrenders
GMT 4:24 – JPY @ 92.04 = Not surprised to see Yen weakness as the move in line of my weekly outlook. For the moment USD should exhust before reaching 92.30-35 levels, posbily probing or close to top for another dip to test 91.70-80, if breaks 91.50. Next level to watch is 92.80.
GMT 4:17 – GBP @ 1.5865 = Should top around 1.5885-95 zones, but has support between 1.5820-40 levels. Unless clears above 1.5940, GBP will remain under pressure, but buy on dips is prerfed as long as 1.5750 holds.
GMT 4:12 – GOLD @ $ 1662.30 = Sell Gold as I do noe see a move beyond $ 1666-67 before Payroll data for test of $ 1655-57 zones. However, I see strong probability for a fall below $ 1645 levels in New York session, if holds below $ 1670-72 or else test of $ 1682-84 zones before down again
GMT 4:03 – EURO @ 1.3608 =  Prior to US Payroll number announcement Euro will hold around 1.3630-35 and needs to push below 1.3580 for 1.3560. however, I am expecting 1.3540-50 hold and if dips will see a bounce back above 1.36 levels before New York opening. Next upside level to watch will be 1.3680-85 with strong support for Euro around 1.3480. Finally we saw a finish of volatile month end. Japanese Yen having lost its heavenly status and unable to make a comeback due to shift in fiscal and monetary policy stance. Pound Sterling already suffering due to weak domestic economic condition got further blow on UK PM David Cameron’s EU referendum announcement. Aussie made and upside attempt, but could not gather momentum due to weak economic condition at home and fearing more rate cut in pipeline. Euro being the major beneficiary is supported by Draghi’s therapy, as the region’s economy are also showing signs of recovery, with Germany providing major boost gave investors confidence helping funds flowing back in the Euro-zone region.
But, despite injection of couple of trillions of US Dollar and zero interest rate policy since last 4-years, economic condition in USA considered as the major global engine is mixed and yet to make sustainable recovery. This is why FED’s opted for a cautious policy stance this time.
However, since 4th quarter GDP data was previous year’s economic number and during the year end 2012 there was some distortion due to bad weather condition in USA, benefit of doubt could be given. Hence, today’s poor payroll data may not have large impact on the market, but a better job number will certainly help the overall sentiment, which could be a possibility due to seasonal factor that does not guarantee stronger growth in the labour market.
So keeping all factors in mind, I will start considering all US economic data’s announcement from next week onwards more seriously to determine the real economic condition.

Keep Watching for CURRENCY UPDATE…..Twitter @asadcmka

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