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Sentiment to remain mix – Pick top to Sell Gold – Jan 25

January 25, 2013
LATE UPDATE………….          Twitter @asadcmka
GMT 15:12 – OK pals,
GOLD just a whisker short of Traget $ 1654.
Yen Target 90.95 met.
GBP is making the expected upside move.
AUD has held 1.0420-25 zones well
-& Euro after one-gain and one loss has made a fine up-move missing target 1.3395 by 20 pips
End of another great week…………………..Cheers
GMT 7:01 – EURO @ 1.3385 = book profit around 1.3385-90………cheers
GMT 7:03 – GOLD @ $ 1672 = Sell around $ 1672-74 STOPs at $ 1678…..
GMT 7:08 – EURO @ 1.3410 = Sell around 1.3410-15 STOPS 1.3450
GMT 9:33 – GBP @ 1.5750 = No chnage in strategy I will buy around 1.5720-40 for 80-100 pip surge. STOPS if 1.5670 breaks
GMT – 9:34 (C)- hi Sir, not gread GDP for UK, break of 1,57 next, or the results are alredy price in?
GMT 9:35 – Priced in….View & strategy unchanged
GMT 9:38 – Watch out Draghi has started to talk in DAVOS……….
GMT 9:41 – JPY @ 90.84 = Hope you have booked your profit around 90.90. Do not be greedy, Yen is a very difficult currency.
GMT – 9:47  –Today, I missed out key point to share that has pushed Euro higher. Europe will pay LTRO roughly Euro 80 billion plus that will squeeze liquidity, which has helped Euro to surge. But what could be worring part is that if Spainsh banks pay back they will do that by selling bonds this why Spanish bond yield has weakened. Liquidity squeeze does not help gold too.
So I fear that we culd another surge in Euro before making sharp fall. Next upside ley level is 1.3495 that may be difficult to break.
GMT 11:56  – GOLD @ $ 1667 = You can book profit around 1665-1667…..Cheers
GMT 4:21 – Euro @ 1.3354 = Mixed sentiment can be seen in the market after positive European data that was followed by better economic numbers in USA, both showing signs of recovery. Earlier and today economic data released is showing continued growth in Chinese economy.
In comparison since last 3-months Euro-zone looks to be better shape because of reduced problems, German economic growth is a welcome sign for the regions economy. Whereas USA issues have been lingering on for a while. Though there are signs of US economic recovery, the growth is not as strong as desired to meet the challenges. Drop in US jobless claims shows that its labor market and the economy is getting better, but its may not be enough to bring substantial changes in the unemployment rate that requires an average monthly minimum of 200.000 plus jobs. More importantly there is debate that recent US data could be distorted due to seasonal factors and if true data release after next 2-weeks could be of more significance.
Release of UK GDP data is another important event of the day. Pound Sterling is already under severe pressure due to weak economy and threat of rating cut after downgrading and now talk of referendum is putting pressure on the currency. Economic data suggest that British are also spending less that has been hitting UK’s consumption sector. Retail sector and housing are two major contributors for GDP growth. Despite all the factors BOE’s recently policy stance of refraining to inject more money could be due to coming unexpected growth that could see sharp surge of GBP and in my view bad economic data will provide opportunity to buy Pound sterling on dip, as Pound is good enough to make a comeback.            
Yesterday, I was of view that after BOJ announcement that it will start its asset purchase program next year and fear of talk of currency war may see some quietness in Yen downward rally. But it seems that sentiment has once again tilted towards further weakening of Japanese currency, as market took clue from Japanese Vice Finance Minister’s statement defending  its weak Yen policy arguing that his government is fighting against 2-decade old deflation that has shattered its domestic economy, which should be regarded as correction and not manipulation of currency. He said a drop to 100 Yen wouldn’t pose a problem gave the spin and jitter to the market.
EURO @ 1.3354 = I would buy around 1.3320-25 for a move towards 1.3385-95 zone, as I see no threat of loss as long as 1.3275 hold.
GMT 4: 44 – GOLD @ $ 1667.50 = As long as gold stays below $ 1680 risk is for a further fall. During the day see I do not see a break of $ 1670-72 levels, but profit should be taken around $ 1660-62 levels. However, I do not rule out test and break of support level for $ 1654.
GMT 4:35 – AUD @ 1.0442 = I do not see fall below 1.0405 and Aussie could move uptowards 1.0475-80 zones. i will not be surprised to see a bounce ack from 1.0420-25 levels or esle 1.0380-85
GMT 4:32 – JPY @ 90.45 = Needs to break 89.90 levels for a test of 89.50, which looks difficult, as JPY’s next target is to visit 90.90-95 zones
GMT 4:27 – GBP @ 1.5869 = If Cable break below 1.5670-80 there is risk for further fall. However, I would take a chance to buy around 1.5720-40 zones for 150-200 pip upmove. STOPS 1.5770
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