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BOJ disappoints market expectation – June 23

January 23, 2013

LATE DEAL……………..
GMT 8:25  (C) sir shall go long on gold and euro now??
GMT 8:28  -View unchanged = pick bottom and do apply loss
GMT  8:45  – GBP @ 1.5825 I think to a certain extent pressure will be released on Cable after CAMERONS EU Speach, buy Cable
GMT 9:05 (C) what view in gold n euro after cameron speech same view unchanged
GMT 9:13 –  view is unchanged………….
GMT 10:04 – GBP @ 1.5882 = Book your profit around 1.5882-88….Cheers
GMT 11:21  (C) sir shall short usd/jpy at 88.30 for 87.80?? and shall go long on gbp again??
GMT 13:18 – EURO @ 1.3327 = Should 1.3305 for re-test of 1.3355-60 zones. More losses if 1.3280
GMT 13:20 – GBP @ 1.5857 = Should hold 1.5835-40 for anotheor up-side test or else 1.5815 before up again……
GMT 13:54 – GBP @ 1.5887 = Book your profit around 1.5887-93……Cheers
GMT 13:58 – Hi sir, Will there be any effect of debt ceiling vote on GOLD today?
Thanks
GMT 14:19  (C) Hi Sir, same question (Moeen) for the currencies
GMT 15:10 – Well it seems that today’s passing on vote is a done deal that will give space to increase USD 16.4 trillion borrowing ceiling for next 3-months that will help to avoid default on the government debt. Passing could be good to overcome short-term obstacle, but negotiations on coming budget will be tough.
This means we could witness more economic activity and this should help US Dollar.
Similarly vote will help to see shift in investments that should not be good news for gold, which is struggling to clear an important $ 1695-98 barrier coconvincingly and gold could loose its gloss.
But this is just a thought. Will talk more later…..cheers
GMT 15:14 – GOLD @ $ 1691 = I am not too keen to buy gold as it has once again struggled to push beyond $ 1695. I prefer staying away because if gold falls below $ 1675-80, another test of $ 1640 and $ 1620. On the upside it needs to push beyond $ 1715-20 for more gains……..
GMT 15:15 – JPY @ 88.64 = has potential to test 88.80-90 zones…..
GMT 3:16 – End of successful day..Cheers until tomorrow………………..

 

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GMT 3:37 – EURO @ 1.3314 = Yesterday, the key event was BoJ policy announcement that may have disappointed the market, as market was expecting BOJ to act quickly. Altering policy and making changes at the top level is not done with the stroke of pen. At times it requires legislative changes or amendment at board level with the approval from its members. Japan is conservative nation, it has its own cultural binding, it is a nation that has strong bureaucratic system, a nation that does not fear making frequent parliamentary changes at the highest level due to split mandate. After long Japan voted for its leader with huge majority and hence, taking advantage, Shinzo Abe has shown aggression to boost growth, which is in Japan’s national interest but all wishes cannot be fulfilled at his will. Yen that was continuing its one-sided journey loosing almost15 pct of its value against the US Dollar from the lows has found reason to correct. In its MPS Japan adopted Shinzo’s 2 pct target by increasing it from 1 pct, but did not opt for its asset purchase program until 2014 disappointing market, which was against their expectation, as market participant thinks this is less aggressive approach. Another possibility of this delay could be that Abe may wait for BOJ Governor to exit in May, so that he can maintain his reform pace with the new BOJ Governor. Meanwhile, despite German investors sentiment ZEW index showing signs of recovery and poor US economic data announcement could not give boost to Euro probably because of rumor that Bundesbank President has resigned that was later denied by the German Central Bank. EURO @ 1.3314 = Euro has strong support line around 1.3370-75 and may not surrender for a move towards 1.3360-70 or 1.3397-02. Only break below 1.3240 threatens more losses
GMT 4:11 – AUD @ 1.0538 = Do not see fall below 1.0505 for another test of 1.0575 or possibly 1.0620, as long as 1.0480 holds.
GMT 4:09 – JPY @ 88.60 = The correction is likley to continue and only break of 88.97 could see a push towards 89.30-50 zones before down again. Yen is likely to make gains for 87.85 or 87.40
GMT 4:05 – GBP @ 1.5830 = We could be heading for a choppy day. 1.5770 is key and an upside break of 1.5860-70 levels could see a push towards 1.5910 zones. Or esle 1.5725
GMT 4:00 – GOLD @ $ 1693 = See support around $ 1688-90 for a move towards $ 1698 probably could terst $ 1701-03 zones. Should hold above $ 1684

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