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FeD oPTs fOr Qe4 – MiLd ChaNgE iN StAnCe – dEc 13

December 13, 2012

LATE UPDATE…………..
GMT 8:57 (Subscriber) – where should buy euro?
GMT 8:57 (Subscriber) – Hi sir, Do you see any view change in EURO after SNB and Moody’s comments about Italy?Thanks
GMT 9:09 – no chnage in view
GMT 9:09 (Subscriber) – how to trade in gold now where to sell now or wait for 1705
GMT 9:11 – nothing new at add in gold at the moment…….
GMT 9:30 (Subscriber) – usd/jpy 83.30, good level to long? ,with SL@83.05
GMT 9:38 – honestly speaking I am not comfortable selling Yen around 83.50. Morning spike was more to do with Chinese entry in the disputed territory. I will refrain from Selling Japanese currency as sharp correction can occur any moment and could see test 82.50…Cheers
GMT 10:50 – GOLD @ $ 1695.50 = If short book your profit around currenct levels. May hold $ 1692-24 levels
GMT 11:17 – GOLD @ $ 1692.60 = If buying watch for $ 1687-88. Gold should not break this level before NYK opening……
GMT 13:37 – Euro @ 1.3066 = Failure to move above 1.3085 risk for 1.3035-40
GOLD @ $ 1692.50 = If hold below $ 1695-96 may test $ 1687 with risk for $ 1682
GMT 14:06 (Subscriber) – book profit at 1795 as not breaking 1796 i m hold buying 1792
GMT 14:14 – yes, don’t be greedy, you will get chance next time…..
GMT 15:03 – Ok pals, cheers until tomorrow………..

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GMT 3:36 – EURO @ 1.3075 = FED opted for 4th easing, but this time inter-connecting jobs and inflation with interest rates and by expanding its monthly USD 45 billion asset purchase program. Bernanke gave assurance that interest rates will remain on the low side probably near zero as long as unemployment stays above 6.5 pct and inflation does not push beyond 2.5 pct.
Market is now calculating that with current pace of fall in unemployment, which is annually one-percent, unemployment rate of 6.5 pct could be reached sooner than thought, which could be probably by end of 2013 because current unemployment rate is 7.7 pct. This also means that from now onwards market will be more keen to keep a close watch on all US economic numbers that pertains to inflation such as CPI, PPI, PCE etc.
Meanwhile, Yen has substantially weakened after North Korea launched a long distant rocket. This morning Yen received further bashing on report coming from Japanese new agency that 4-Chinese ships entered Japanese water near disputed island. I think the announcement of Chinese ships leaving the area will provide some relief to the Japanese currency.
This year BOJ expended its balance by 15 pct and market is expecting more to come. BOJ could add more money if it s economy further deteriorates and this Sunday’s election could provide more direction about Yens future trend since ABE of LDP party has shown keen interest to follow Draghi’s footstep.
EURO @ 1.3075 = Last night Euro after briefly hitting the top side of my given range 1.3120 fell nicely as per call. Now finding base around 1.3050, may make another attempt towards 1.3092-98 zones and failure to move beyond would risk for fall towards 1.3020-30 zones. However, I do not rule out another upside test, probably towards 1.3150-60
GMT 3:50 – GOLD @ $ 1699.90 = Yesterday, I pointed out that Gold may not move beyond $ 1722 and could possibly drop towards $ 1675. My view remnains unchanged as gold did make a brief attempt to penetrate beyond $ 1722-24 but could not succeed.
Today resistance is at $ 1705-7 only break would enourage for $ 1712. I am expecting another dip towards $ 1695 zones after failing to break 1st barrier
GMT 3:44 – AUD 1.0555 = Australian currency looks nervous around 1.0570-80 and should not penetrate beyond 1.0620. however, needs to fall below 1.0505 for more losses..
GMT 3:42 – JPY @ 83.60 = Could test and find top 83.90-95, as unlikley to break 84.40 before Sunday’s election. Japanese currency needs to push below 83.1o for more gains
GMT 3:39 – GBP @ 1.6138 = Should hold around 1.6095 for a move toeards 1.6170-80. Break below 1.6060-70 delays upmmove

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