Skip to content

FeD wiLL bE CaUtiOuS WiTh IT’s aPPRoaCH

December 12, 2012

LATE UPDATE………….
GMT 9:41 – (Subscriber) – gold 1715 should sell at 1717 – 1718
GMT 9:45 – I will prefer to buy gold cautiously on dips around $ 1710-12 rather than selling…………
GMT 9:51 (Subscriber) – sir shall sell usd/jpy!!
GMT 9:57 – Possible Range 82.60-83.05
GMT 10:32 (Subscriber ) – sir shall sell aud at 1.0550?
GMT 10:35 – i will will prefer around 1.05570-80. i will not go against the trend….
GMT 12:26 – (Subscriber) – hi sir, as there are discussions about more QE, do you think that gold can break 1730 area? or we shall not expect sharp moves in gold, either ways
GMT 12:32 – as I have mentioned in my morning post that FED should maintain balance approach because fiscal cliff is still unresolved issue. Therefore, I do not any agression from FED. More QE announcement will definately see gold surging to and beyond $ 1730, which is not a favoured scenario.However, Bernanke’s press appearance should be take more seriously for clues……….
GMT 12:33 – EURO @ 1.3045 = bookm your profit around 1.3045-50
GMT 12:34 – GBP @ 1.6143 = book your profit around 1.6143-48
GMT 12:35 – JPY @ 82.91 = book your profit around 82.91-96
GMT 13:36 – GOLD @ $ 1717 = book your profit around $ 1717-19..Cheers
GMT 15:02 – Ok pals, end of another perfect day.
JPY @ 82.90 = My best bet is on JPY around 82.90-95 with Stops if 83.25 breaks…..Cheers…………..

================
GMT 3:12 – Euro @ 1.3007 = With Fiscal Cliff issue still looming, Federal Reserve may not show too much of aggression, neither it may take risk of making changes in its plans. FED committee members may prefer to wait until the expire of agreement date before deciding its next line of action and is likely to announce extension of its Operation Twist (OT) program that expires at year end.
Therefore, best guess about the number is that FED will continue with its monthly plan to purchase USD 40 billion Mortgage backed securities with rollover of USD 45 billion. The key is that market is already estimating total monthly purchase of USD 85 billion. Since this amount is discounted, any deviation in this number by over 10 pct (Plus or Minus) will surely move the market. e.g, plus means bad for US Dollar but good for gold and similarly decline in number will give boost to US Dollar and gold price should ease. However, Bernanke’s inter-action after the press conference that will be followed after the FOMC announcement around 12.15 ET may provide spark and some direction to the market.
In my weekly post, I was very clear about the market direction, as I said that as we approach Wednesday’s FED FOMC announcement US Dollar will weaken and gold will have stronger tone. My view remains unchanged until FED is done for the year.
EURO @ 1.3007 = Market will hover around 1.2970-75 and bias will be on the upside towards 1.3040-50 prior to FED announcement. I see risk for a push towards 1.3080-20 zones, as market could become choppy before the end of the day in US session, but then Euro rally should fizzle out after hitting top. A break below 1.2935 will risk for 1.2870-75.
GMT 3:33 – GOLD @ $ 1710.50 = During the day, Gold is buy on dip as long as $ 1704 is protected, but needs to push above $ 1712-13 for $ 1718.
The key level to watch is $ 1722 for $ 1737. However, I am not convinced about the upmove to test the highs and I will not be surprised to see a test of $ 1675 this week
GMT 3:25 – JPY @ 82.57 = The move could extend towards 82.80-85 zones on break of 82.65. But there is a possibility of sharp gain of Japanese currency to test and break of 82.05 for 81.50. On the upiside only oush above 83.10 risk for more JPY losses
GMT 3:21 – AUD 1.0527 = Though Aussie has potential to test 1.0550-60 zones as it has strong support around 1.0495-00. But I am not an AUD fan at currenct levels and would prefer to wait to pick the top for fall. Need to push below 1.0460 ease pressure on current ongoing rally.
GMT 3:16 – GBP @ 1.6115 = Cable has support around 1.6075-85 zones and as long as 1.6050 holds could see a surge toward 1.6150-60

Advertisements
Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: