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eURo FizzLeS oN EaSinG ProsPectS

December 7, 2012

LATE UPDATE

GMT 7:46 – (Subscriber) sir plz some light on eur/jpy
GMT 7:50 – I do not have a firm view on eur/jpy until Dec 16 Japan election. Yen is likely to remain weak as long a LDP has chances of winning election. If Abe wins we could see sharp selling of Japanese currency. Best strategy is to sell Yen on bounceback……………..
GMT 12:52 (Subscriber) hi, regarding NFP, if it will be above 80k, how will the gold react?
GMT 12:54 – $ 1682- 1710
GMT 13:21 – GOLD @ $ 1698 = suggest to stay sqaure………..
GMT 13:37 – GOLD Sell aroudnd $ 1692-94 STOPS $ 1697
GMT 13:40 – JPY @ 82.77 = Book your profit…..Cheers
GMT 13:53 (Subscriber) sir in gold its stuck near 88 89 same view u give before 92 94 seell 97 sl
GMT 13:54 – prefer safe play as market will remain choppy, though I am expecting USD to make gains
GMT 13:59 (Subscriber) gold up any view
GMT 14:01 – I said market will remain very choppy. Gold should test $ 1690……
GMT 14:19 -EURO @ 1.2913= Top around 1.2913-18 for 1.2970. STOPS if 1.2950 breaks
GMT 14:24 -Gold @ 1704 = Focus was right on gold, but payroll screwed my view…….
GMT 14:38 – sir now wht to do in gold!!
GMT 15:07 – Ok pals, end of a very good week except for today’s STOPs in gold.This is why I always insist to apply STOPs…..
Have anice weekend……

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GMT 3:21 – EURO @1.2968 – It was once again Mario Draghi, the ECB President dominating the market, but this time the trick did not work as he had to speak the truth by telling market in his news conference that positive growth in Euro region may not possible in 2013 as he expects this years weakness to extend next year. He continued to paint the picture in negative that dragged Euro down.
But market got shaky when Draghi said that the committee had wide discussion on rates, it instead opted to maintain the benchmark rates suggesting that some of the members wanted further easing of rates. This is something not very common as Central Bank’s avoid hinting about the policy matters/strategy to discourage the speculative factor. After his statement, it has become obvious that if the European economy continues to perform poorly, the easing pressure could mount in next policy gathering.
There were quite a few other factors that did not support Euro, Spanish bond yield came under pressure after failing to meet the auction target a day earlier. Italian bond yield suffered heavy losses after Mario Monti survived vote of confidence after Silvio Berlusconi’s party abstained from voting in Senate risking snap election that had seen surge in Italian bond yield.
Today all eyes will be on US payroll data that could give further hint about US Dollar’s next direction. Market is already discounting poor numbers expecting distortion that may have been caused by Hurricane Sandy. Since market is projecting 75.000 to 80.000 jobs in November, anything around 70.000 could be acceptable number, as we are also approaching year end, but any number above 125.000 should see market roaring.
Prior to US job data, Euro may find top around 1.2990-95 and looks a good sell if seen, but on the downside support is around 1.2930-35 levels as will be watching Spanish and Italian bond yields, higher yield may some more softening of European currency. However, despite poor job data I do not see a move beyond 1.3050 and see risk for drop to 1.2860.
GMT 3:36 – GOLD @ $ 1702.50 = It seems that gold is changing its stance and today bias is on the upside until NYK opening. As long as $ 1695-98 holds see risk for test of $ 1708-10 zones.
GMT 3:32 – AUD 1.0480 = Very strong support around 1.0420-30 zones suggesting that Aussie may look for reason to surge and could climb at faster pace break of 1.0525 is required for bigger moves next week.
GMT 3:30 – JPY 82.48 = Strong resistance is at 82.10 which should not surrender as the Japanese currency may not have enough legs to penetetrate beyond 82.25-30 for 82.70-75 or probably beyond
GMT 3:27 – GBP 1.6952 = Likly to remain in a 1.6035- 1.6085 range until job data with bias on upside. But do not see a move beyond 1.6120. Later in NYK we could see a push towards 1.5995 zones.

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