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eU BuDgEt DiSaGrEeMeNt CoUlD sPOiL tHe pArTy

November 23, 2012

GMT 15:02 – Ok pals, suggest squaring & no new position after excellent week. Have a nice weekend…………
GMT 14:50 – GBP @ 1.5875 =I am still looking for a test of 1.5985-90
GMT 14:45 – (Subsciber) Shud I cable@ 1,5975, short at current level?
GMT 14:12 – JPY @ 82.34 = View is still good………..
GMT 14:11 – sir, what is the direction for UDS/YEN for today?
GMT 13:52 – EURO @ 1.2927 = Sell around 1.2927-33. STOPS 1.2970
GMT 13:27 – GOLD @ $ 1733.20 = Sell arouind $ 1733.20-35 STOPS $ 1738
GMT 13:23 – EURO @ 1.2912 = Short Euro at current levels is not prefered as Euro could test 1.2922-28 hold on.
GMT 10:01 – no change in view
GMT 10:01 – (subscriber) – EURO/USD sell @1.2915-20?

GMT 3:10 – EURO @ 1.2885 – Foreign exchange market is waiting to pick direction from Brussels summit that ended without providing a firm note about the terms and conditions and agreement reached with Greece. This is quite an important development that will provide direction for Euro-zones next move. The delay is caused on disagreement between Euro-zone finance ministers and IMF, as they will be meeting on Nov 26 to discuss their unresolved issue.
I think Germany could be another cause of delay because increase of Euro 10 billion funding will not be possible, as it requires endorsement from Bundestag and if I am correct this may take another 7-days from now.
Euro surprisingly is still maintaining strong tone despite weak economic data, yesterday’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was again below the benchmark level of 50 to 45.8, as both service and manufacturing sector were disappointing indicating weak economic outlook and possibly poorer job condition.
But on the other side of the continent in USA, hopes of reaching fiscal understanding also supports Euro because once fiscal understanding is reached flow of USD liquidity will be easier that should weaken US Dollars.
Presently news relating to two major factor Brussels FM meeting on Greece bailout funds and US fiscal cliff is driving the market that will keep them nervous and directionless unless settled, but there is another major development brewing up i.e, talk on EU Budget that still requires extensive discussion and negotiations as there is plenty of disagreement and could spoil the European party
Overall, I am not comfortable selling Euro flatly unless there is a a clear direction/understanding and hence, Euro should find top around 1.2910-20 zones. On the down side 1.2825-30 is the support levels, break risk for test 1.2790. Only move beyond 1.2950 will encourage for more Euro gains

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