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EuRo tO BoUnCe BaCk dEsPiTe MoOdY’s DoWnGrAdE of FrAnCe

November 20, 2012

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GMT 15:12 – End of a dull but successful day. Euro did hit 1.2820 briefly touching 1.2830.
-AUD exhausted as per morning call and fell nicely to hit 1.0375.
-Yen comfortably touched my taget of 81.60.
-GBP was up though did not meet target 1.5950.
-Gold remained within a narrow band providing small tarding opportunity.
Cheers until tomorrow…………..

GMT 13:14 – I do not see much happening at the moment in currencies unless there is claer direction.

GMT 10:59 – GOLD @ $ 1734 = if you went long around $ 1730 on early morning view suggest taking profit around $ 1734-35 and wait for New York to enter. More later……

GMT 10:50 -sir how to trade in gold today sell or buy what level -manish

Gold @ $ 1733.90 = did test $ 1730 but so far held well, needs to clear $ 1736-38 for more gains or could re-test $ 1728-30 zones


GMT 3:06 – EURO @ 1.2792 = This is why I always remind all my readers that Euro-zone problems are unending and if one issues get settled or gets a breathing space, next one is ripe to pop up. When market was taking a breather in expectation of early aid for Greece, because Euro-zone leaders have finally realized that Greece issue cannot be prolonged anymore and probably are in final talk before making an announcement, Moody’s acted by downgrading France, which may have spoiled the European show.
It all may sound music to ears that Greece could be close to some sort of settlement, as the estimated amount of money required has now surged to Euro 44 billion. This could be another paper entry and time buying European finance minister’s strategy to avoid disaster, because such type of agreements are always conditional that demands fulfillment of tough austerity measures prior to qualify for funding. The pace of rising unrest and current ongoing protest suggest that it may not be possible to implement donors demand that requires chopping of another 20.000 government jobs and further spending cuts. Yes, Greece will escape default and initially it could get commitment and should be blessed with a token amount of aid money to clam market sentiment that should be short lived.

Two factors that helped currencies and gold to recover is talk on Greece and Obama hinting to reach an understanding on US fiscal cliff that later eased on Moddy’s downgrading of France. However, I am of view that today, Euro weakness should be short lived, as currency could bounce back as it will get support European finance ministers gathering. Euro will find support around 1.2740-50 zones and I am expecting for another upside move, break of 1.2815-20 will encourage for a test of 1.2850-80 zones. Only fall below 1.2710 risk for more Euro losses

GMT 3:19 – GOLD @ $ 1733.80 = As long as it holds $ 1728-30 risk for test and break of $ 1740. On te down side, level to watch is $ 1724-25
GMT 3:16 – JPY @ 81.22 = Could make another attempt towards 81.55-60 zones, as long as it holds 80.80
GMT 3:13 – AUD @ 1.0408 = Likley to get exhausted on upmove around 1.0435-45 zones, fall below 1.0380 tisk for more losses
GMT 3:10 – GBP @ 1.5914 = Though soft, but Cable has strong support around 1.5870-75 area and could see a test and break of 1.5950

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